[inquiry]

When you decide to play another diamond, North will produce the expected Ten.

South is either 1-6-2-4 or 1-6-1-5. Do you finesse North for the queen or play to drop the queen?
North is either 4-2-2-5 or 4-2-3-4.

What influenced your answer?

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[gnasher]

I wouldn't have started from here. I'd have played ♠AQ, ♦A, ♣A, diamond towards dummy.

From where we are now, I'd probably play for the drop, but it depends on what I know about South's style.

Looking at the vacant places, we know of four spades, two hearts and two small diamonds in the North hand; and six hearts and one spade in the South hand. Before we deal any diamond honours South has one more vacant space than North; after we deal South a diamond honour, it's evens whether the other diamond honour is in North or South.

Looking at the bidding, many people would open 3♥ on x QJ10xxx H J9xxx at this vulnerability, whereas with x QJ10xxx KQ J9xx they probably wouldn't. Against that, x QJ10xxx KQ QJxx would be a 1♥ opening for most players.

I haven't voted, because none of the poll options reflects my views. What's wrong with simple neutrally-worded answers like "Yes" and "No"?

This post has been edited by gnasher: 2012-September-14, 12:19

[JLOGIC]

Tough hand. South also covered the CT which messes with my mind, he presumably has QJ9 or J98 or something... If he had QJ of clubs he could not have KQ of diamonds presumably for 2H. And if he would only cover with J98 but not J9x then if he had 4 clubs then by going for the drop we are playing for speciically x QJTxxx KQ J98x.

I dunno, I'd probably just hook. x QJTxxx K J98xx or x QJTxxx K QJ9xx seems like the most likely hands. Some people would open 3H or pass with those but since we don't know and 2H is a reasonable bid with that, I think it's more likely than the other hand which is very specific on top of the restricted choice element.

[JLOGIC]

I guess whether they'd cover the club with J9 and no 8 is pretty important.

[gnasher]

gnasher, on 2012-September-14, 12:15, said:

Looking at the vacant places, we know of four spades, two hearts and two small diamonds in the North hand; and six hearts and one spade in the South hand. Before we deal any diamond honours South has one more vacant space than North; after we deal South a diamond honour, it's evens whether the other diamond honour is in North or South.

Sorry, the last twelve words are nonsense. There are two ways that the honours can break 1-1, and each of these is the same odds as a 0=2 break. Hence the finesse is twice as likely to work as the drop. (This is the equivalent to applying restricted choice.)

[mikeh]

gnasher, on 2012-September-14, 12:39, said:

Sorry, the last twelve words are nonsense. There are two ways that the honours can break 1-1, and each of these is the same odds as a 0=2 break. Hence the finesse is twice as likely to work as the drop. (This is the equivalent to applying restricted choice.)

My experience, which is often against non-expert players, is that most players beyond beginner level but not yet expert don't randomize their play from KQ tight....they usually play the K, probably because they had to 'learn' that falsecard at some point and haven't been exposed to the literature about randomizing. In addition, humans are very poor randomizers....we tend to actually develop habits, and I think the habit of being 'sneaky' with this holding is an easy trap.

So if playing against other than experts or solid advanced players, had S won the Q, I would hook in a heartbeat. Playing against most players, I think that it is a far tougher call,after S won the K, because most S's won't win with the Q more than 10-25% of the time. IOW, in pure restricted choice, playing the K makes it twice as like that he had a stiff K than that he held KQ tight, but when you infer that he's almost always play the K from KQ tight, the strength of the restricted choice inference is greatly weakened (and correspondingly strengthened if he'd won the Q).

I wouldn't have played this way, btw. I too would have cashed the spade AQ....we need to test spades to get some inference on the diamond suit, but there was no need to blow a dummy entry in doing so...we have lots of entries to our hand. So AQ spades then diamond A then club to hand an diamond up.

Hsd I kept my spade K in dummy, I'd rise with the Ace because I will go down a lot less when wrong than if I hook and lose. I hook and lose and I am down 4, while if I rise and win I am down only 1. -400 against, say, 1440 at the other table is an imp worse than -100 and the gain is even more if they miss slam at the other table, and since the decision is, imo, very close indeed, that would swing it.

However, i have deprived myself of the ability to get out for -1 by rising. So I may as well go with what I see as the tiny edge for the hook...a clearer edge against better opps.

[JLOGIC]

The clubs are far more important than the diamonds on this hand. Just that fact that if south has QJ of clubs he cannot have KQ of diamonds (against most people) means a lot after the CJ cover since that is often from QJ9. So on all subset of hands that south has covered with QJ9, he has stiff K of diamonds.

[JLOGIC]

Like, lets look at it this way. If he would only cover with J98x of clubs and not J9xx then there are exactly 5 combinations of hands where the drop is right (the 5 j98x combos, assuming RHOs club is random). And it's only half of that because of restricted choice, so call it 2.5 combos.

As opposed to if he covers from QJ9xx and J98xx. There are 5+4+3+2+1, 15 QJ9xx combos. Lets say he has restricted choice on which honor he covers with, so 7.5. There are 4+3+2+1 so 10 J98xx combos. So 17.5 combos of him covering with QJ9 or J98 fifth, compared to 2.5 combos when he has J98x and covered (remember, he cannot have QJ9x and KQ of diamonds or he'd open 1H).

So that is 7:1. Now, 6-5 is less likely to be dealt than 6-4, and 6-5 might open 3H, but you'd have to be pretty damn sure he'd open 3H almost every time with 6-5 to justify goig for the drop which we are not sure of.

Let's say he covers with J9xx regardless of the 8, and also covers QJ9xx and J9xxx regardless of the 8.

15 combos of J9xx. Halve it for restricted choice on KQ of diamonds and we have 7.5

Still 15 QJ9xxs divide by 2 so 7.5. There are 20 J9xxxs. So 27.5 to 7.5 is 3.66 to 1. Now adjust for 6-4 being more liekly than 6-5, and you still need to think they're opening 3H rather than 2H a huge percentage of the time to justify the drop.

I think hooking is a huge edge, even in the most generous condition of NO cover from QJxxx, and cover from any J9xx

[dboxley]

I would have started with the DA or possibly DJ, the 9 only wins when diamonds are 4-0.