rhm, on 2011-July-08, 15:04, said:
It is true that there are some extreme distribution where my line fails when trumps are 0-4 and RHO defends perfectly, e.g not ruffing the ♣A at trick one for example.
Of course you can assume some extremely unlikely distributions like giving the club preemptor a 5 card ♦ suit in addition to the 7 cards in ♣. The chance for that, giving the club preempt, is below 1% and LHO would probably have preempted higher with that anyway.
Your line is great when RHO has all the trumps, but looses when LHO has a singleton trump and you misguess, which one, when you play a trump from the table. The best you can do is to finesse against the ♥Ten, but then you are down when LHO has this card and returns a ♠ and all the time RHO could have had 4 cards in ♦ and you would still be down. The ♦queen wins easily against this position.
Overall your line is no improvement and probably does worse overall.
The whole point is that it is right to play the ♣ ace at trick one and it is wrong to play trumps yourself early.
Rainer Herrmann
Agreed, this is what I was saying about the preemptor's opening style, if he has KQJxxxx and I'll know that at trick one, if I can be sure he doesn't have another K, my line is fine, but not sure if it's better, as I think it fails on many of the same hands.
And the 5-2 diamonds was a throwaway, I said 4W-3E was more likely and that still defeats you if trumps are 4-0.
Is there anything to be said for just winning the A
♣ ditching a diamond, then playing
♠Ax with the intention of then ruffing a club and leading the first trump from hand, assuming the preemptor won't have
♥K10x or a heart singleton and the
♠K.
Basically you're safe on any 2-2 trumps, any 3-1 either way with the K
♠ onside unless it's alongside a stiff A
♥, and any 0-4 where the E hand has at least 3 diamonds and the K
♠. If the trumps are 3-1 with the K
♠ offside, I have chances unless W switches to his singleton trump.
IMPS, diagram says it all. This is not a hesitation issue, North passed in normal tempo.
IMO
Playing 2/1 or SAYC, you might open 2♥.
Now, Pass = 10, 3♥ = 7, Double = 4
Double works well, when partner has a trump stack. Unfortunately, however, partner will be tempted to pass with a variety of puddings and may be disappointed by your lack of tricks and trump-void.