[jdonn]

I will be diplomatic and call the post clamoring for an insane club lead "fuzzy math".

[effervesce]

The_Hog, on May 25 2008, 11:37 PM, said:

Not only that but what the heck are you going to start discarding on the Cs when the opps run the suit they have, Also if pd has length in H, then the H lead may well NOT give away a trick but may set up long cards.

That is assuming they have clubs to run. On hands where the clubs run, of course a club lead is poor. OTOH, what if they don't have that many clubs to run though?

I'm not saying that a club is _the best_ lead, I'm just putting forth an argument why I'm leading one.

[effervesce]

655321, on May 25 2008, 11:25 PM, said:

effervesce, on May 25 2008, 11:03 PM, said:

Let's say partner has 5 points, the opponents 25. What's the chances of partner having a heart honor?

The outstanding honors are KQ spades, AQJ hearts, AKJ diamonds and AKQJ clubs (12 picture cards).

The relevant cards are A hearts, Q of hearts and J of hearts. The chances of partner holding AQ is nil, AJ is approximately 1/12C2, or 1/78. Let's be generous and make the chances of partner holding two honors in hearts as 3%.

What's the chances of partner holding 1 heart honor? Approximately 3C1*9C1/12C2, or 12%.

Thus the chances of partner holding anything in hearts is 15%. If partner has the jack, alot of the time the lead gives a free trick. Do you still think that a heart lead is 'obviously much better than a club', given it doesn't give a free trick about only about 10% of the time?

Granted, a club may be very stupid if dummy comes up with long clubs, and the lead sets up clubs for them or helps them pick the suit. But a club lead only has to lose less than 90% of the time to gain over a lead of a heart.

Are you sure you are comparing the right things?

I am assuming your arithmetic is correct (too hard for me ), but sometimes (often?) the contract is cold. Of the times the contract can be beaten, perhaps we need partner to have the right card(s), either a heart card, or enough stoppers that he can get in and establish our hearts before declarer has 9 tricks.

Yes, a heart lead is best if MOST of the time 3NT is cold, in which case yes, you do have to lead a heart. But if it's alot closer-ie 3NT is a close contract, then of course a passive lead is best.

So it boils down to this: do you think they are in a contract that is pushy? Club lead. If it's very likely to make - then an aggressive lead is best.

[effervesce]

jdonn, on May 25 2008, 11:38 PM, said:

I will be diplomatic and call the post clamoring for an insane club lead "fuzzy math".

Care to try and put forth some constructive posts rather than making lame strawmen? I'm not 'clamoring' for a club lead. Anything could be right or wrong. I'm just trying to put forth an explanation why Han's double-dummy simulation suggests a club lead is best.

Oh wait - it's 'absolutely clear' as put forth by Ron that a heart is right, and a club is wrong.

What's wrong with a spade lead btw? if partner has K of spades, it could very well be the winning lead (partner will have the K of spades approximately 15-20% of the time?) If I thought that they're likely to be making unless we quickly set up some tricks, perhaps a spade is better than a heart.

[the hog]

effervesce, on May 26 2008, 12:16 PM, said:

jdonn, on May 25 2008, 11:38 PM, said:

I will be diplomatic and call the post clamoring for an insane club lead "fuzzy math".

Care to try and put forth some constructive posts rather than making lame strawmen? I'm not 'clamoring' for a club lead. Anything could be right or wrong. I'm just trying to put forth an explanation why Han's double-dummy simulation suggests a club lead is best.

Oh wait - it's 'absolutely clear' as put forth by Ron that a heart is right, and a club is wrong.

What's wrong with a spade lead btw? if partner has K of spades, it could very well be the winning lead (partner will have the K of spades approximately 15-20% of the time?) If I thought that they're likely to be making unless we quickly set up some tricks, perhaps a spade is better than a heart.

I certainly agree that a S lead might be right. But the A of S may well be better used as an entry.The auction strongly suggests they have C - no stayman, so probably minors.

[jdonn]

effervesce, on May 26 2008, 12:16 AM, said:

jdonn, on May 25 2008, 11:38 PM, said:

I will be diplomatic and call the post clamoring for an insane club lead "fuzzy math".

Care to try and put forth some constructive posts rather than making lame strawmen? I'm not 'clamoring' for a club lead. Anything could be right or wrong. I'm just trying to put forth an explanation why Han's double-dummy simulation suggests a club lead is best.

Oh wait - it's 'absolutely clear' as put forth by Ron that a heart is right, and a club is wrong.

What's wrong with a spade lead btw? if partner has K of spades, it could very well be the winning lead (partner will have the K of spades approximately 15-20% of the time?) If I thought that they're likely to be making unless we quickly set up some tricks, perhaps a spade is better than a heart.

1. You found some results (partner will have a heart honor x% of the time) and then jumped to some random conclusions (only lead a heart if they are making this contract y% of the time). You considered when a heart will blow a trick but not when a club will blow a trick or solve a guess, or when a heart is the most passive lead opposite no honors, or how you can have any idea what % of the time they are making, etc.
2. You claim partner will have at least one of A Q J of hearts 12+3=15% of the time, and now claim he will have the king of spades 15-20% of the time? I stand by 'fuzzy math'.

I don't think it's "absolutely clear" a heart is right. Just that a club is really terrible.

[kenrexford]

I think it is much better if partner just leads out of turn.

[effervesce]

jdonn, on May 26 2008, 02:12 AM, said:

effervesce, on May 26 2008, 12:16 AM, said:

jdonn, on May 25 2008, 11:38 PM, said:

I will be diplomatic and call the post clamoring for an insane club lead "fuzzy math".

Care to try and put forth some constructive posts rather than making lame strawmen? I'm not 'clamoring' for a club lead. Anything could be right or wrong. I'm just trying to put forth an explanation why Han's double-dummy simulation suggests a club lead is best.

Oh wait - it's 'absolutely clear' as put forth by Ron that a heart is right, and a club is wrong.

What's wrong with a spade lead btw? if partner has K of spades, it could very well be the winning lead (partner will have the K of spades approximately 15-20% of the time?) If I thought that they're likely to be making unless we quickly set up some tricks, perhaps a spade is better than a heart.

1. You found some results (partner will have a heart honor x% of the time) and then jumped to some random conclusions (only lead a heart if they are making this contract y% of the time). You considered when a heart will blow a trick but not when a club will blow a trick or solve a guess, or when a heart is the most passive lead opposite no honors, or how you can have any idea what % of the time they are making, etc.
2. You claim partner will have at least one of A Q J of hearts 12+3=15% of the time, and now claim he will have the king of spades 15-20% of the time? I stand by 'fuzzy math'.

I don't think it's "absolutely clear" a heart is right. Just that a club is really terrible.

Yes, partner won't have the K of spades 15-20% of the time. More like 5% of the time. I pulled that 15-20% number out of thin air to see if you'd even think about my post. Glad to see that you did.

I'm supposing that a club lead will blow a trick less often than a heart lead. A club lead will blow a trick if partner has Jxxx(x) or Qxx(x). A heart lead blows a trick if partner has nothing in hearts. Which one will occur more often?

[benlessard]

I think i can make a guess about why double dummy a club might be better. Double dummy the contract is almsot cold. So a passive lead might be better just for the overtricks. There are time when 3nt is not there because dummy has a useless club suit and few entries and a club is the only passive lead.

But since the goal is to put 3Nt down a club lead make little sense. Left to his own device and assuming partner got nothing declarer will make 4 or 5 clubs 2D + 2H + 1 or 2S. If we give the chance to declarer to establish trick everywhere he wont fail no matter what card partner got. If partner got nothing in H and nothing in S no matter what we lead declarer is heavy favorite to make 3nt. So i think we have to assume that partner got something in a major. A heart lead pretty much hope for 3H + 1S and a slow trcik (Q of D or J of S) but declarer will finesse us because we are short in clubs.

A spades lead work when partner has the K and we make 4s + 1H or might work when partner got the TS and a card elsewhere. (declarer KQx is spades or Hx on dummy)

[FrancesHinden]

I'm astonished at the idea that a club lead is passive.

[gnasher]

FrancesHinden, on May 26 2008, 09:48 AM, said:

I'm astonished at the idea that a club lead is passive.

In the context of Han's simulation, where declarer is playing double dummy, a club lead is entirely passive.

[benlessard]

Quote

I'm astonished at the idea that a club lead is passive.

I hope its sarcasm.

[FrancesHinden]

benlessard, on May 26 2008, 11:48 AM, said:

Quote

I'm astonished at the idea that a club lead is passive.

I hope its sarcasm.

Are you being deliberately obtuse?

A singleton lead against 3NT on a blind auction is rarely passive. It will very frequently pick up something for declarer that he would (might) not find for himself - at least as often as any of the four-card suits we're thinking of leading.

Oh yes, and as soon as declarer works out you've led a singleton he will know what the rest of the your hand looks like, because you clearly were trying to avoid leading one of your 4-card suits. So you haven't just picked up the clubs, you've managed to reveal the entire layout.

As gnasher says, double dummy analysis is totally different, because the club lead won't cost if declarer has, say, Qx opposite AKJ9x or AJ10x opposite K9xx, or KJxx opposite A98x, or A9xx opposite Q108x or......

On this putative 4441 hand you simply don't have a passive lead.

[benlessard]

A club lead is unlikely to give away a trick, is very unlikely to develop a trick and its the least agressive lead i can make. As for giving up the layout of the hand this comment is also a joke. 95% of the time declarer best suit is going to be clubs. At trick 2 he will play club himself and notice the bad break probably at trcik 3. You have to be very naive (or play against very weak opponents) to hope that declarer will take finesses the wrong way.

[Cascade]

effervesce, on May 26 2008, 04:03 PM, said:

The_Hog, on May 25 2008, 02:44 AM, said:

effervesce, on May 25 2008, 02:09 PM, said:

I personally hate leading 4 card suits against NT without a decent sequence. 3 or 5 card suits are fine, but not 4. (Unless I'm 5-4 in two suits, and during the bidding I've shown the 5 card suit - then I'd lead the 4 card suit).

Club for me.

Wtf is this post?
You have 4H, the opps have not looked for a Major suit fit, though a 433 is possible. Surely a H is the best lead. A club is off with the pixies when the opponents have bid this way.

Let's say partner has 5 points, the opponents 25. What's the chances of partner having a heart honor?

The outstanding honors are KQ spades, AQJ hearts, AKJ diamonds and AKQJ clubs (12 picture cards).

The relevant cards are A hearts, Q of hearts and J of hearts. The chances of partner holding AQ is nil, AJ is approximately 1/12C2, or 1/78. Let's be generous and make the chances of partner holding two honors in hearts as 3%.

What's the chances of partner holding 1 heart honor? Approximately 3C1*9C1/12C2, or 12%.

Thus the chances of partner holding anything in hearts is 15%. If partner has the jack, alot of the time the lead gives a free trick. Do you still think that a heart lead is 'obviously much better than a club', given it doesn't give a free trick about only about 10% of the time?

In essence, my argument is this: lead of a heart is probably best IFF (if and only if) their chances of making 3NT are >(80? 90?)%. Otherwise, a passive lead is best.

P.S. You'd better check your argument again (or at least put some clarifiers). Against 1NT-2NT, from AQxx KJxx Kx xxx what is your lead? By your argument you'd lead a heart or spade....

I think you are seriously underestimating the chances of heart honours.

On your assumption that partner has five points then these are the possibilities:

AJ
KQ
KJJ
QQJ
QJJJ

we can work out the odds of each of these combinations

There are three ways partner can have an ace and three ways to have a jack and 27C11 ways to have 11 small cards = 117341055

Similarly for KQ

There are three ways partner can have a king and three ways partner can have two jacks and 27C10 ways partner can have 10 small cards = 75926565

Similarly for QQJ

There are three ways partner can have a queen and one way partner can have three jacks and 27C9 ways partner can have 9 small cards = 14060475

Thus we can work out the relatively probabilities as:

AJ 0.292916401
KQ 0.292916401
KJJ 0.189534142
QQJ 0.189534142
QJJJ 0.035098915

Now partner has two honours in hearts

P(AJ)*1/3*1/3 + P(QQJ)*2/3*1/3 + P(QJJJ)*1/3*1 = 0.086364603

and partner has one honour in hearts

P(AJ)*1/3*2/3*2 +

P(KQ)*1/3 +

P(KJJ)*2/3 +

P(QQJ)*(2/3*2/3 + 1/3*1/3) + (queen and not jack plus not queen and jack)

P(QJJJ)

= 0.482875984


These numbers concurred with some empirical data that I generated.

I'm not sure what this means for your other conclusions.

[jdonn]

benlessard, on May 26 2008, 10:08 AM, said:

A club lead is unlikely to give away a trick

Do you have anything to back this up?? I totally disagree. It's not just solving a 2 way finesse. Give partner QJxx or something. Or like KT8x where you show declarer how to pick up the suit, or JTxx etc, there are tons of times it gives up a trick. Not to mention the times leading the right other suit would actually set up tricks!

[CSGibson]

Low heart. Give partner the A, Q, or 9 of hearts and I'm happy with the lead. Give partner the J of hearts and dummy the Q of hearts, and I'm happy with the lead. Not only will partner's lead back in the suit likely set up tricks, but declarer, being cognizant of that fact, will now take the diamond finesse into my "safe" hand if he has options

I have often led shortness when an auction "guarenteed" that partner had length and values in the suit. In this auction there is no such guarentee. Leading a club seems to be at best a guess, and at worst an attempt to pick off partner's holding in their long suit.

[benlessard]

Quote

Do you have anything to back this up?? I totally disagree. It's not just solving a 2 way finesse. Give partner QJxx or something. Or like KT8x where you show declarer how to pick up the suit, or JTxx etc, there are tons of times it gives up a trick. Not to mention the times leading the right other suit would actually set up tricks!

1- Because partner is poor he rate to have no pts in clubs.

2- If hes A or K and no spot it cost nothing. If he got Qxxx then declarer would probably have finesse him anyway (unless i falsecard my H or S lead). If hes got QJxx it cost nothing. (think about it and you will see) If K or Q with a spot it might not cost at all and sometimes declarer will play me for having 4 clubs.

Q9xx---AJ8x partner KTxx is safe anyway.
Q9xx----AK8x partner JTxx is safe.

By far the most likely case where its blow a trick is when Qxx but even with this declarer might still finesse him to keep him off lead.

Not only a club lead is unlikely to cost a trick but when you put thing in context by comparing a club lead VS the other lead its obvious to me that a club lead is very safe and very passive.

[gnasher]

benlessard, on May 27 2008, 03:38 PM, said:

If he got Qxxx then declarer would probably have finesse him anyway (unless i falsecard my H or S lead).

Are you saying that if I lead a card that shows a four-card heart suit, opener will play me for short clubs?