[nige1]

Harry Smith's Lockdown Swiss Teams.
Against South's 3N, West led ♠J to ♠Q and ♠A.
East returned ♥8 to West's ♥Q.
West switched back to ♠s and the contract was doomed

North-South have 28 points with stops and all suits break reasonably
but, to succeed, declarer must rise with ♥K, at trick 2
In the other room, 3N made an overtrick on an opening ♥ lead

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[AL78]

I'm guessing the West player deduced that in the absence of Stayman, there is a fair chance partner has long spades along with some values, so I will play him for a 5 card suit and hope we can establish and run it before declarer can make nine tricks. I feel sorry for declarer, it looks like a complete guess whether to rise or let it run. Great defence, going for the only chance and giving declarer an opportunity to fail.

[nige1]

 AL78, on 2021-March-02, 08:09, said:

Great defence, going for the only chance and giving declarer an opportunity to fail.

West = Fiona Greenwood. East = Julia Palmer

[TylerE]

Don't think it's much of a guess. After the lead, if W gets in again we're dead. K♥ at trick 2.

Sure if the A is with W and the Q with E it gives up an extra undertrick or two, but it's IMPs, who cares? Making is what matters.

[Cyberyeti]

 TylerE, on 2021-March-02, 10:05, said:

Don't think it's much of a guess. After the lead, if W gets in again we're dead. K♥ at trick 2.

Sure if the A is with W and the Q with E it gives up an extra undertrick or two, but it's IMPs, who cares? Making is what matters.

No law against W having ♠J10(x)(x), but yes if this lead is from Jx you probably need to play the ♥K, of course the heart switch could be from Q82 which is embarrassing as you play the K and E having correctly unblocked, you now lose 4 hearts, particularly embarrassing if the diamonds were 3-3 and the lead was from J10.

[AL78]

 nige1, on 2021-March-02, 09:56, said:

West = Fiona Greenwood. East = Julia Palmer

Ok, replace "him" with "her" in my original reply.

I've never heard of them, but I'm guessing they are high up in the bridge world.

[paulg]

 AL78, on 2021-March-02, 10:43, said:

I've never heard of them, but I'm guessing they are high up in the bridge world.

They are in the Scotland Women's team for the European Team Championships.

[LBengtsson]

good defense but for good players this is automatic. east has a count that declarer NT 12-14 in Scotland, I guess. so only card for declarer to go wrong is west to hold ♥Q. if west has ♣Q then leading ♣ back is garbage, and no club back by east at trick two then declarer always has safety play in ♣ so as west do not get lead again thru ♠K8. am I wrong?

[nige1]

 TylerE, on 2021-March-02, 10:05, said:

Don't think it's much of a guess. After the lead, if W gets in again we're dead. K♥ at trick 2. Sure if the A is with W and the Q with E it gives up an extra undertrick or two, but it's IMPs, who cares? Making is what matters.

If declarer guesses right, he can claim 9 tricks. (1 x ♠ + 1 x ♥ + 3 x ♦ + 4 X ♣).
It's a guess,
Declarer chose to play for split aces and was unlucky to go down

[TylerE]

I don't think it's quite a pure guess. I would argue that W is slightly less likely to hold both aces, as a fairly large subset of the hands that bid over 1NT (Which W obviously didn't) will hold both aces.

It's a pretty weak negative inference, but I'd say this is maybe something like 45/55, not a coin flip.

There is additional inference to be gleaned from the lead... if W had a good suit they could have lead that...and didn't.

[Cyberyeti]

 TylerE, on 2021-March-02, 15:44, said:

I don't think it's quite a pure guess. I would argue that W is slightly less likely to hold both aces, as a fairly large subset of the hands that bid over 1NT (Which W obviously didn't) will hold both aces.

It's a pretty weak negative inference, but I'd say this is maybe something like 45/55, not a coin flip.

There is additional inference to be gleaned from the lead... if W had a good suit they could have lead that...and didn't.

As part of that inference, if E has 5 spades, depending on what defence to 1N he's playing, you might infer he's likely to be 5(332), so it's unlikely W has a good suit of his own anyway (other than ♥AQ10xx, in which case the guess isn't that important as far as making the contract is concerned)

[smerriman]

I don't see much in terms of inferences from the lack of interference, but without the Ace of hearts, wouldn't East be more inclined to duck trick 1, retaining their only entry?

I'd go as far as to say that East would 100% duck, since that's their only hope of beating the contract. So no guess for me. (I'm obviously swayed by seeing all 4 hands, but the logic makes sense to me).

[nige1]

 smerriman, on 2021-March-02, 18:32, said:

I don't see much in terms of inferences from the lack of interference, but without the Ace of hearts, wouldn't East be more inclined to duck trick 1, retaining their only entry? I'd go as far as to say that East would 100% duck, since that's their only hope of beating the contract. So no guess for me. (I'm obviously swayed by seeing all 4 hands, but the logic makes sense to me).

A lot of insightful comments. Whether or not he holds ♥A, East might consider ducking the ♠ opening lead, while encouraging it. Winning ♠A, instead, and leading a ♥ presents declarer with an attractive losing option which wouldn't normally be available to him. Perhaps declarer should also take that consideration into account, against good defenders.

[AL78]

 Cyberyeti, on 2021-March-02, 10:32, said:

No law against W having ♠J10(x)(x), but yes if this lead is from Jx you probably need to play the ♥K, of course the heart switch could be from Q82 which is embarrassing as you play the K and E having correctly unblocked, you now lose 4 hearts, particularly embarrassing if the diamonds were 3-3 and the lead was from J10.

If the lead is from Jx declarer has to go up with the king to have any chance. If West has the ace on that spade layout, the contract is doomed as declarer cannot stop West gaining the lead. The problem for declarer is gussing what holding the lead is from. If declarer thinks the spades are 4-3, playing low or going up with the king could be right, but if the lead is from a doubleton, only the king is right, so that means the odds favour playing the king at trick 2?

[Cyberyeti]

 AL78, on 2021-March-03, 04:51, said:

If the lead is from Jx declarer has to go up with the king to have any chance. If West has the ace on that spade layout, the contract is doomed as declarer cannot stop West gaining the lead. The problem for declarer is gussing what holding the lead is from. If declarer thinks the spades are 4-3, playing low or going up with the king could be right, but if the lead is from a doubleton, only the king is right, so that means the odds favour playing the king at trick 2?

It's only doomed if the diamonds are not 3-3, playing the K can go off when they are.

[nige1]

CyberYeti points out that if declarer plays ♥K on East's ♥8 switch,
he risks losing the first 5 tricks, for an immediate one-down
when playing low would have resulted in overtricks.

Even after a misguess when LHO has ♥Q
declarer still has good prospects of making the contract

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