[Polixenes]

♠ AQ
♥ AQxxxx
♦ Kx
♣ xxx

LHO was dealer. After hearing 1H-1S-Pass I was rather stumped for a call. We were not vulnerable so I expected as few as 8 HCP from partner.

I decided against cue-bidding 2H since that would have shown 3 card spade support, but in retrospect I think AQ support is at least as good as xxx so perhaps I should have made that bid. (I actually bid 2NT after some angst, pard bid 3NT and we didn't make it on this occasion).

Supposing I bid 2H and pard had responded 3S I imagine I could perhaps offer 3NT as a choice of games?

Supposing I bid 2H and pard had responded 2S could I now bid 2NT as a game try in either strain?

[SteveMoe]

I'd offer 2N as well, with a touch of pessimism. AQxxxx in ♥ is not a good feature. I'd hope that LHO's values in the minors are finessable.

[Zelandakh]

Hello Polixenes and welcome to the BBO forums. Like yourself and Steve, I like a 2NT advance - 13+-15 with heart values seems like a reasonable description. Could it be that the problem came on the 3NT call or in the play? Was there an alternative making game available?

[ggwhiz]

2nt here too.

I would never do this with spade shortness (as partner knows) and it's right on points with ugly warts but I don't make every game I bid. A heart lead against a spade contract does not appeal.

[Polixenes]

Thanks folks - for the welcome and the advice.

I think just lie of the cards was the issue with 3NT, but I have the feeling maybe my hand was not as good as the HCP suggested with the opponents holding my longest suit. Sorry I can't remember the heart spots but they were not 987 or anything like that I would have been happier.

I was really wondering whether I should have upgraded my AQ of spades to be reasonable support worth a raise but since none of you think the 2NT was unreasonable I guess I will bear this in mind for 'next time' (i.e. when I get a similar hand/auction in approximately 4 years time and will have completely forgotten this discussion!)

Cheers

[Zelandakh]

Your bridge instincts are good in that the hand really is devalued somewhat after the opening bid. The truth is that this hand would be too strong for 2NT otherwise though, with maximum points, concentrated values, 5 controls and a strong 6 card suit. The devaluation just turns it into a "normal" 2NT in terms of values. Devaluing all the way down to 1NT would just be too pessimistic and selling this hand as a good raise just feels wrong.

[Phil]

3N is pretty awful. We have communication problems in a suit we need to set up and length in LHO's suit is a red flag.

[Jinksy]

(didn't read OP properly)

[Stephen Tu]

Jinksy, on 2017-January-20, 16:19, said:

I play 2N here as a good spade raise with 4+ spades, so I would double, and probably rebid some number of NT.

Bidding can be a lot more accurate when we get to double partner's bids .

[jogs]

Hand valuation is an inexact science or rather a probability curve. With the ♥Q clearly badly placed and spade blockage likely, it is possible that more than 26 HCPs are required to make 9 tricks in notrumps. It's not clear to me that 2NT means in this sequence. But I suspect pard does not have(values for) a 3NT bid.

[Zelandakh]

jogs, on 2017-January-20, 18:53, said:

It's not clear to me that 2NT means in this sequence.

You are not clear on the meaning of (1♥) - 1♠ - (P) - 2NT?

[manudude03]

Zelandakh, on 2017-January-22, 05:31, said:

You are not clear on the meaning of (1♥) - 1♠ - (P) - 2NT?

Well, you do get people who play that 2NT is 4 card support LR+ while 2♥ is the same with 3 card support. I suspect most players at club level wouldn't be sure what it shows if they don't play it as a raise.

[Zelandakh]

manudude03, on 2017-January-22, 16:56, said:

Well, you do get people who play that 2NT is 4 card support LR+ while 2♥ is the same with 3 card support. I suspect most players at club level wouldn't be sure what it shows if they don't play it as a raise.

In England, the normal way of teaching overcalls is, as far as I know, that NT responses are the same as for openings but one level lower. That is not exactly correct, better is probably to say that they show a king less, but close enough for most club players to know what to expect. Given the OP it is clear that 2NT for this pair was natural and I would expect every non-N/B BBFer to know more or less the expected hcp range for this without any difficulty at all.

[helene_t]

I don't see any reason to play 2NT as a raise here. We are not in a rush, 2♥ can always be followed by some subtle game try and if we have so much distribution that we are afraid that opener will interfere with our auction, we can respond 3♥ or a splinter.

Natural 2NT is useful opposite a wide ranging overcall. Both minors has merits also.

[jogs]

Hypotheses testing. There are two types of errors. Bidding unmakeable games. And failing to bid a makeable game. There are tons of articles which state that when game makes the side that bids the game wins 6-10 imps. When game fails the side in part score wins 5-6 imps. They neglect to mention that the two events(making or not making game) are not equally likely.
Let's examine this bidding sequence. We, advancer, hold 15 HCP. ♥Q is badly placed. For five spades tricks to be easily made, intervenor needs ♠KJT9x. Else blockage may exist. LHO's HCP range is 11-18. Intervenor's HCP range is 7-14. The upper end of the ranges are unlikely as RHO may hold 3 or 4 HCP and neither of the others are necessarily on the bottom end of the range. This 15 HCP hand is trick poor. The likelihood of 9 tricks in notrumps is quite low.
25 years ago, Larry Cohen wrote in contested auctions 'the 2NT bid' should always be conventional. Rarely does anyone know when 2NT is the best contract. Since this question is part of the thread it is likely the partnership had not discussed the meaning of 2NT in this sequence.
Advancer's hand has points but no obvious tricks. Therefore in this situation it is prudent to avoid bidding an unmakeable game.
When opponents open, it is unlikely we hold sufficient HCP(25+) to produce a notrump game. Therefore reserve the 2NT bid to be conventional. With possible playing tricks as advancer just bid 3NT.

[jogs]

Bridge is a probability game. Most bridge systems are designed to find games and slams.
There are unconditional probabilities, which are static, and conditional probabilities, which are dynamic. When we open and they pass our probability for game is over 50%. When they open our chances for game drops precipitously. With every new piece of information from the bidding the chances for game fluctuates wildly. The object of matchpoints is the maximize the expected mps. The object of imps is the maximize the expected imps. When game is unlikely it is no longer pragmatic to give high priority to finding game. The system should cater to game theory best strategy.

[Kaitlyn S]

jogs, on 2017-January-24, 10:32, said:

Intervenor's HCP range is 7-14. The upper end of the ranges are unlikely

14? Not where I come from.

From the Bridge World Standard 2017:

♠ A K Q 10 x ♥ A K x ♦ Q x x x ♣ x

is slightly too strong for a one-spade overcall of one club with neither side vulnerable.

By "slightly", they asked experts what the lowest diamond honor would make this hand too good to overcall 1S. Most experts would simply overcall 1S if you changed the DQ to the DJ.

http://www.bridgewor...system.html#VIA (the page this came from)

[Zelandakh]

Kaitlyn S, on 2017-January-24, 18:44, said:

14? Not where I come from.

I think jogs is assuming that Opener holds 11+hcp here, 15 + 11 + 14 = 40. I doubt that he thinks the correct upper range for an overcall more generally is 14.

[jogs]

Kaitlyn S, on 2017-January-24, 18:44, said:

14? Not where I come from.

Zelandakh, on 2017-January-25, 03:12, said:

I think jogs is assuming that Opener holds 11+hcp here, 15 + 11 + 14 = 40. I doubt that he thinks the correct upper range for an overcall more generally is 14.

That is right. I'm referring to this board, not the general overcall range.