Epic misunderstanding Which of all bids is the worst one
#21
Posted 2017-January-12, 15:02
Winner - BBO Challenge bracket #6 - February, 2017.
#22
Posted 2017-January-12, 21:46
2H and 2S were certainly normal.
I would probably X 2S at MPs (gotta get that +200), but at IMPs pass seems clear (don't want to be -670). Who knows; maybe N-S will get in even worse trouble.
North's pass of 2S is automatic.
Now we get to some odd actions on the second round:
East's 3H is just awful. Generally when you preempt, you don't bid again unless partner asks you to. An exception would occur on this hand if West had something like:
x QJTxxx x KQxxx
Now a 3C reopening bid has a lot of merit (risky, to be sure, but normal enough).
But with most hands, including the one West had, you don't bid again.
South's X is odd, too. This is takeout, not penalty. Reverse the H and the D and it would be perfect. As it is, not so much.
As for West's XX, the only explanation I can think of is that he asked n/s about the X and was told "business." If West thought 3HX was for business, then it's kind of an old chestnut to XX, hoping that the opponents will get scared and run (hey, you're getting an awful board anyway, so there's a ton to gain and not much to lose).
Assuming N-S didn't have an agreement that X of 3H is penalty (a really odd agreement), then I think North's 4D bid is OK. West's XX of 3H ought to be for business at this point (where are E-W going to run?). N-S ought to have an 8- or 9-fit in D.
After that, however, N-S are in the stew.
#23
Posted 2017-January-13, 01:45
But, misunderstandings happen
#25
Posted 2017-January-14, 07:39
Zelandakh, on 2017-January-12, 09:06, said:
How do you view that?
#26
Posted 2017-January-14, 08:45
#27
Posted 2017-January-14, 11:50
Zelandakh, on 2017-January-12, 09:06, said:
I'm not sure how to see the other players' averages either but my average (the last 50 hands, I don't know how to look at anything else) ia +1.1. Does this mean I'm a decent player? Of course not. If I got the +1.1 with my favorite partner with many agreements in the Relaxed Room choosing to play against beginners, I could be totally wretched. The last time people made this argument, I tried an experiment to see how high I could run my average. I ignored the tougher competitive team matches (where my opponents were frequently regular partners and I don't have any regular partners here) and just played in the Main or Relaxed Bridge Club in situations that didn't look suicidal, and ran my 50-board average to about +3.6. I wasn't any better player but my IMP average was pretty high. After playing 50 hands this way, I decided to find an enjoyable game where I found a reasonable partner who found two of his reasonable playing friends to play against. It was great fun but playing against a seasoned pair put us at a disadvantage and I appeared to be in Zelendakh's "low intermediate" category with my IMP rating.
So I maintain that you can tell little about a player's skill by looking at his IMP average on the last 50 hands (even if you could see his average for all his hands, I'm not sure you can tell.) Several factors apply here:
Does the player have a regular partner with agreements?
Does the player play with a weak regular partner? (some spouse or significant other partners can really drag your average down)
Does the player play in the competitive team games, and further, does he look for the strong matches?
Does the player look to play against tough opponents or against beginners?
There are many others. I know how well (or how poorly) I play and refuse to give myself the label "Expert" as I feel it should apply to people that others would be willing to pay to play with. I know that I will never approach the level of play of many of the posters here such as Phil or Timo so probably I won't ever be a self-labelled expert. However, I don't think you can get a good clue about my ability from my IMP average.
#28
Posted 2017-January-14, 16:52
I agree that the BBO average is not a decent hint, why not?
For example most of my MP average comes from GIB MP events where I hold the best hand, which gives me more control over the outcome than random deals that puts you in positions where the outcome depends on opponents and their bidding success. On the other hand one has less success rate in defense vs GIB than real players and than defending with human partner. You are basically defending without any signal in GIB games.
Also, if your average is mostly decided by GIB events, looking at Tournament averages will fool you, because people tend to withdraw in the middle of the event when they are going very bad, and those results won show in your Tournament hands average.
"It's only when a mosquito lands on your testicles that you realize there is always a way to solve problems without using violence!"
"Well to be perfectly honest, in my humble opinion, of course without offending anyone who thinks differently from my point of view, but also by looking into this matter in a different perspective and without being condemning of one's view's and by trying to make it objectified, and by considering each and every one's valid opinion, I honestly believe that I completely forgot what I was going to say."
#29
Posted 2017-January-14, 17:46
* 2♠: not my choice (I'd pass), but normal
* P(W): obvious
* P(N): obvious
* 3♥: inconsistent with a standard Weak Two style. Maybe East had lots of extra shape and suit quality the way they play, but why didn't he double or bid 2N (suggesting 6-4?) or 3♣ instead?
* X(S): There are three playable styles here: takeout, penalty and either-or. But maybe South had reason to believe North would be on the same page.
* XX: SOS, West's best try
* 4♦: looks like North either thought West's redouble was for business or that partner's double was for takeout
* P(E): obvious
* P(S): just believing partner
* X(W): not too greedy IMO
* P(N): consistent with 4♦
* P(E): obvious
* XX(S): at MPs, why not? At IMPs, maybe damage control (Pass) is called for, but I've seen opps get cold feet under comparable circumstances.
* P(W): obvious
* P(N): consistent with previous pass
* P(E): obvious
It's hard to say what the worst call was without knowing more about NS's doubling agreements or what they should expect to be standard within their group. 3♥ by East is dubious at best, though.
#30
Posted 2017-January-14, 22:24
MrAce, on 2017-January-14, 16:52, said:
MrAce, on 2017-January-14, 16:52, said:
I agree that the BBO average is not a decent hint, why not?
For example most of my MP average comes from GIB MP events where I hold the best hand, which gives me more control over the outcome than random deals that puts you in positions where the outcome depends on opponents and their bidding success. On the other hand one has less success rate in defense vs GIB than real players and than defending with human partner. You are basically defending without any signal in GIB games.
Also, if your average is mostly decided by GIB events, looking at Tournament averages will fool you, because people tend to withdraw in the middle of the event when they are going very bad, and those results won show in your Tournament hands average.
I had not even considered the GIB aspect of it.
#31
Posted 2017-January-15, 10:25
#32
Posted 2017-January-16, 02:29
With 10+ ♥ between South and East, can South reasonably expect North to sit for a penalty double? If not, what suit is North likely to bid? Diamonds, of course, South's void. OTOH, a pass of 3 ♥ leaves the opponents in not a particularly good place.
How would competent defense go against 3 ♥? South starts with ♣ AK followed by ♣ 3 which North wins with the ♣ Q. North returns ♦ 3 which South ruffs low. South returns the ♣ 6 which North ruffs, North returns another ♦ which South ruffs low and there's still two top ♥ to collect totaling 8 tricks for +200 versus nothing.
#33
Posted 2017-January-16, 02:42
Jinksy, on 2017-January-14, 07:39, said:
It is just the average over the last month taken from the BBO Myhands database. Login using your BBO ID, enter the name of the relevant user and adjust the time period. The maximum output is one month at a time although the records go back around 2 months, so you can potentially construct a better average. It is also a good idea to run your eye over the output to see if they are done with a regular partner or you recognise any of the other names - that can sometimes suggest that the average is untrustworthy - but it is still, in my experience, a considerably better indicator than the self-ratings provided the #hands is more than 100.