mycroft, on 2015-November-19, 13:09, said:
But I don't understand. At IMPs, your careful play to set up the double squeeze for contract on board 6 counts 13 times as much as the opps guessing the two-way for the queen for the second overtrick on board 5. At MPs, your good play has evened up the game. At IMPs, you're massively ahead.
But then there's another board that has a game swing on a two-way guess for the queen ... Why should so much depend on whether or not the extra trick is on a contract making or not boundary or the overtrick or not boundary? There are always some boards that depend on guessing & some that depend on skill. This is unavoidable. But with IMPs, you randomly select boards and make them way more important. If skill makes the difference, you are very happy if you happen to be in control of this on the big swing boards. But if it's just luck, or it's the other pair that has control because they have the cards, you are just totally screwed for like the entire game. You were defending, your opps are capable of finding the skilled play but the others weren't, there goes 13 imps, you can no longer win that day. At MP, you effectively get more sample size, there are way more boards that reveal skill differences, way more boards for the luck factor boards to even out. At Imps too many boards are relegated to +/- 1-2 imps while certain boards are 10+.
MP effectively tends to reveal skill differences in fewer boards. At Imps, if you play a large # of boards, the skilled players will come out on top just like at MP. But in a short club game of 24-27 boards, IMPs just arbitrarily picks a few of them and makes them super important. What would you think if say the NFL with its 16 game season, randomly selected for each team 2 particular games and made them worth 10 wins each?
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As a good player what would you rather have, a chance to go way ahead with a slam that for you is 70% rather than 50% on because you have the added bonus chance of the guard squeeze leading to the deadly throwin, or a series of boards that depend totally on whether you've "rightsided" the contract to avoid the killing lead that holds you to 4 instead of 5?
As a good player I want as many boards as possible that give me a chance to pull ahead with skill, and many boards for the luck boards to cancel each other out. At MP my chances of getting sufficient boards is a lot higher than at IMPs. At IMPs I need to be lucky that the swing boards happen to be skill boards and under my control.
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Top on a board is 1, and you're scoring against one of the above 4 on every hand - which one? I can do the three-table Howell from memory, but even I won't do it at the table - and another of the 4 is their opponent (your "teammate" in the BAM scoring).
Still telling me that it will all boil down to fights for the extra overtrick? Still think that that is going to be more than "one more wave in the wash"?
If there are lots of weird bidding going to be going on, things will get crazy at both MP and IMPs, and more boards are going to be won/lost in the bidding than in the play. But STILL, IMPs will put outsized importance on a few swingy boards. I don't see why it would ever be "better" than MP.
I think most people prefer IMP to MP because they prefer teams vs. pairs, and they associate team scoring with IMPs and pair scoring with MP. But I really don't understand anyone who prefers IMP pairs to MP pairs as it becomes more a crapshoot when the # of boards played is low. I prefer MP teams (aka BAM) to IMP teams also, as I think it's the purest skill test in the game, but it's very rarely run. Perhaps because of historical reasons, IMP scoring is closer to roots of the game in rubber bridge & total point team scoring. Plus the greater luck factor in IMPs giving more teams a chance to do well at least some days.