[perko90]

The most common application for my question arises from 1M-1NT auctions when a responder uses a forcing 1NT and then takes a pref to 2M holding a doubleton vs an auction that uses non or semi-forcing 1NT and retains the option of playing 1NT instead. Can anyone point me to some computer simulations to see which is the best contract in the long run - 1NT or 2M? We can assume a 5332 opener, if that helps. Does one win over the other? Are there qualifiers (suit quality, for ex.)? Thanks for any insight.

[mike777]

my guess AS a nonexpert is this does not matter.....


bid games....make games...beat the opp in their games....


partscore competition is fun ...but just bid something sensible...and leave AT MOST LEVELS OF BRIDGE

[Zelandakh]

I seem to remember that Adam (awm) did quite a lot of work on evaluating 2M contracts in a 5-2 fit. I remember, for example, that 2M is a long term winner over 3m even when Opener is 5M-4M and Responder 2M-4m. I do not remember if he has also posted about 2M versus 1NT though. It is certainly the case that 14-16 NT opening and SF 1NT response has gained in popularity with time. The gains do not really come from playing 1NT versus 2M so much as the assurance that the 2m rebid shows a real suit. If you are comparing the methods then you really need to compare everything and not just a small part.

[RunemPard]

Depends on scoring, location/system of opps, skill level...

At mps you have to play your 5-2 better than those in 1nt of course..

But I don't know. Have never seen a sim on this.

[Stephen Tu]

I recall Alex Martelli on r.g.b. running some simulations on this question back around 2000 and concluding that on double dummy basis, not considering suit quality, 5-2 M came out ahead overall in terms of comparing when one contract made but the other didn't. I don't recall if he compared on a MP basis or not.

[jogs]

Stephen Tu, on 2015-October-01, 09:45, said:

I recall Alex Martelli on r.g.b. running some simulations on this question back around 2000 and concluding that on double dummy basis, not considering suit quality, 5-2 M came out ahead overall in terms of comparing when one contract made but the other didn't. I don't recall if he compared on a MP basis or not.

Yes, double dummy 5-2 plays way better. How many of us can play all those 5-2 suits double dummy?

[fromageGB]

I play 2/1 GF with 1NT forcing, against a MP field where many play in 1NT, and while I do not keep statistical records, I am very happy with the situation. 2M seems to be much better when points are equally divided, less so as strength increases towards game level.

[fromageGB]

In a similar vein I play twalsh to end up playing in a 2-5 fit when others play in 1NT, also to good effect. I'm sure many other twalsh players can corroborate.

[Zelandakh]

fromageGB, on 2015-October-04, 04:06, said:

I play 2/1 GF with 1NT forcing, against a MP field where many play in 1NT, and while I do not keep statistical records, I am very happy with the situation. 2M seems to be much better when points are equally divided, less so as strength increases towards game level.

As mentioned earlier, the problem comes not from playing 2M rather than 1NT but in other parts of the system, such as being forced to rebid a short minor. It would be an interesting comparison were you to play SFNT with 14-16 for a few months.

[fromageGB]

Zelandakh, on 2015-October-04, 04:25, said:

As mentioned earlier, the problem comes not from playing 2M rather than 1NT but in other parts of the system, such as being forced to rebid a short minor. It would be an interesting comparison were you to play SFNT with 14-16 for a few months.

Yes, it's the minor rebids that are the problem with the method. Short minors are not very helpful in determining the right contract, and many have given up the 2♣ in order to show strength. My situation is worse, because as a predominantly MP player, and English with it, I prefer to open 1M with a 5 card major regardless of strength. This means I have to cope with an extra possibility (15/16 hcp) in the rebids after 1M so play Gazzilli on guaranteed 15+ and have an artificial 2♦, and as a result both minors are gone at the 2-level. Sometimes it would be nice to play in 2m, or have this as a natural start to a higher contract.

However, I can't see me switching to NFNT even temporarily. I wouldn't know what to do with the other hands that are put into the FNT !