[lowerline]

Note: you cannot bid 4♣ because that would be non-leaping Michaels

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[hrothgar]

lowerline, on 2015-January-21, 08:34, said:

Note: you cannot bid 4♣ because that would be non-leaping Michaels

---

I'm going with 3NT

If I double, partner is going to convert.
I'm not strong enough for 5♣ and I can't bid 4♣

[wank]

yes 3nt. you know partner has the hearts stopped.

[Fluffy]

Let's hope partner has a club, or leftie leads one

[whereagles]

5♣. Bob Hamman is known to be wrong on occasion

Seriously now, I find 3NT too iffy.

[ArtK78]

I like 3NT. Opps are nonvul, so I don't expect the 3♥ bidder to have much. RHO didn't raise, so I hope my partner has something and the opps don't find any killing lead, if one is available.

I remember a hand that my team played in the late stages of our unit's annual KO competition a few years back. My teammates were in 6NT. Dummy had a long running suit with no outside entry and declarer was void in dummy's suit. The opp on lead led dummy's long suit - 12 tricks.

At my table, our opps showed a lack of imagination by playing slam in dummy's long suit. We cashed the first two tricks.

[mikeh]

I admit to a sneaking admiration for 3N, but the truth is that partner doesn't need to have hearts stopped. Give RHO Kx and a smattering of points and he isn't raising to 4H, especially if he has defence to spades and diamonds.

They could easily run the heart suit on you. In saying that, I do not say it is 'probable' that they will. Even 10xxx may be a stopper, and of course he probably holds better cards than that.

My reasons for abjuring the 3N call are two fold, of which the embarrassment of having to find 7 discards right away is just one.

The other is that we may be missing a slam. Admittedly this isn't probable either. Give partner something like Axx Axx KJxxx xx, and he has no call over 3♥ but might be able to raise 5♣ to slam. He could have an even better hand...just a tad short on hcp to bid 3N and a tad long in hearts to double, etc.

Yes, I see that the 'lesson' from Art's story is, arguably, that notrump can play better than the long suit, but something tells me that the opps who let 6N make could/should have found a different lead, and the outcome would have been quite different.

Yes, I will be very sorry if they have 3 cashers against 5♣, and take them, and we had 9 winners (or more) in notrump, but I think the odds favour bidding the 8-bagger.

I'd feel even better were 4♣ natural, because we don't pre-empt over pre-empts, thus my 5♣ call would be seen as a serious suggestion of game, but this is borderline anyway (in terms of what he will expect when considering a raise) so that isn't a big deal for me.

I really like 3N at mps, tho, since I don't rate the chances of a slam bonus very highly.

[ArtK78]

In the hand that I was referring to, the lead against the suit slam was from a hand that had an Ace. So my partner led the Ace, and I had the King. The appearance of the dummy made a continuation clear. Both cashed.

At the other table, the lead was from my hand, the hand without an Ace. I never did hear how the auction went, and I can't give you the reason why the player holding my cards at the other table decided to lead dummy's suit. I suspect that he still regrets it.

[MrAce]

mikeh, on 2015-January-21, 12:39, said:

I admit to a sneaking admiration for 3N, but the truth is that partner doesn't need to have hearts stopped. Give RHO Kx and a smattering of points and he isn't raising to 4H, especially if he has defence to spades and diamonds.

They could easily run the heart suit on you. In saying that, I do not say it is 'probable' that they will. Even 10xxx may be a stopper, and of course he probably holds better cards than that.

I would still bid 3 NT. despite the very good points you made.

When RHO has Kx as you said, ask yourself how many times LHO will actually lead from his AQJxxxx or AQTxxxx when he heard you bidding 3 NT?

I am not saying he will always lead another suit, but not leading this suit is hell of an option. No need to mention but even if he leads the suit from AQJxxxx, what do you expect him to lead when his pd has Kx and dummy has Txxx ? He better be leading small or they just block the suit. If pd has Jxxx it does not matter what he leads.

At the top of all, pd probably holds a legit stopper.

So 3 NT can be and probably the winning action, even when it is wrong double dummy. Unless of course the opening leader holds them all in his possession.

[nige1]

lowerline, on 2015-January-21, 08:34, said:

Note: you cannot bid 4♣ because that would be non-leaping Michaels.

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IMO 3N = 9, 5♣ = 10, Pass = 8. At the table, I might have bid 5♣ without thought but Artk78, Wank, and Mr Ace have persuaded me that 3N is better.

[ArtK78]

nige1, on 2015-January-21, 13:35, said:

IMO 3N = 9, 5♣ = 10, Pass = 8. At the table, I might have bid 5♣ without thought but Artk78, Wank, and Mr Ace have persuaded me that 3N is better.

And yet, 3NT only gets 9 while 5♣ gets 10.

[ArtK78]

MrAce, on 2015-January-21, 13:18, said:

I would still bid 3 NT. despite the very good points you made.

When RHO has Kx as you said, ask yourself how many times LHO will actually lead from his AQJxxxx or AQTxxxx when he heard you bidding 3 NT?

I am not saying he will always lead another suit, but not leading this suit is hell of an option. No need to mention but even if he leads the suit from AQJxxxx, what do you expect him to lead when his pd has Kx and dummy has Txxx ? He better be leading small or they just block the suit. If pd has Jxxx it does not matter what he leads.

At the top of all, pd probably holds a legit stopper.

So 3 NT can be and probably the winning action, even when it is wrong double dummy. Unless of course the opening leader holds them all in his possession.

What is really great is when LHO has AQJxxxx, RHO has Kx, and Partner has Txxx, along with secure stops in the side suits (give partner Axxx Txxx KQxx x). So, if LHO leads his suit, unless LHO underleads his AQJxxxx by leading a spot card, the suit is blocked. Of course, LHO should not have the side ace for his preemptive opening bid.

If LHO hits on the lead to RHO's ace (if he has one), then you are cooked.

[nige1]

ArtK78, on 2015-January-21, 15:27, said:

And yet, 3NT only gets 9 while 5♣ gets 10.

Thanks. I meant to change the marks to 3N = 10, 5♣ = 9, Pass = 7, Double = 5.

[PhantomSac]

My opinion is that 3n is significantly percentage but who knows

[the hog]

Certainly 3NT at any form of the game, MPs or Imps. Pd figures to have a stopper and 5C is a long way away..

[masonbarge]

lowerline, on 2015-January-21, 08:34, said:

Note: you cannot bid 4♣ because that would be non-leaping Michaels

---

1. If you play "non jumping Michaels" you deserve your predicament. How in the world can you have a system where you can bid a 2-suiter at the 4 level, but not a long, strong suit?

2. At IMPs, if you can't bid 4 clubs, you have to pass. Your swing is potentially disastrous. And 3NT is absolutely insane - you HAVE to be kidding me! You don't want to lose a match over an opponent's part score bid! The style these days is to bid 3 and 4 of a suit with an outside Ace or King. Can you imagine your teammates in an IMP contest finding out you went -12 or -15 defending a part score? They would never play with you again.

3. At Matchpoints, bid 3NT if you are behind late in a match, want to shoot, and you know your partner is okay with it. It might make for a top.

You have to have enough maturity to realize that pre-empts often work. If you normally do well, you can't let them stampede you into disaster. And who says the opponents are going to make their bid?

[Vampyr]

ArtK78, on 2015-January-21, 15:30, said:

So, if LHO leads his suit, unless LHO underleads his AQJxxxx by leading a spot card, the suit is blocked.

Wouldn't it be normal to lead a low card if you were leading the suit? I think that cashing the Ace is generally right only when you have an outside entry.

[Vampyr]

masonbarge, on 2015-January-22, 12:26, said:

1. If you play "non jumping Michaels" you deserve your predicament. How in the world can you have a system where you can bid a 2-suiter at the 4 level, but not a long, strong suit?

2. At IMPs, if you can't bid 4 clubs, you have to pass. Your swing is potentially disastrous. And 3NT is absolutely insane - you HAVE to be kidding me! You don't want to lose a match over an opponent's part score bid! The style these days is to bid 3 and 4 of a suit with an outside Ace or King. Can you imagine your teammates in an IMP contest finding out you went -12 or -15 defending a part score? They would never play with you again.

3. At Matchpoints, bid 3NT if you are behind late in a match, want to shoot, and you know your partner is okay with it. It might make for a top.

You have to have enough maturity to realize that pre-empts often work. If you normally do well, you can't let them stampede you into disaster. And who says the opponents are going to make their bid?

Your opinion is certainly welcome, but tone it down. People who come on to the forums and try to teach everyone how to play bridge tend to become very unpopular very fast.

[ArtK78]

Vampyr, on 2015-January-22, 12:50, said:

Wouldn't it be normal to lead a low card if you were leading the suit? I think that cashing the Ace is generally right only when you have an outside entry.

I suspect that most players would lead the Q if they were leading from this holding.

[ArtK78]

masonbarge, on 2015-January-22, 12:26, said:

1. If you play "non jumping Michaels" you deserve your predicament. How in the world can you have a system where you can bid a 2-suiter at the 4 level, but not a long, strong suit?

2. At IMPs, if you can't bid 4 clubs, you have to pass. Your swing is potentially disastrous. And 3NT is absolutely insane - you HAVE to be kidding me! You don't want to lose a match over an opponent's part score bid! The style these days is to bid 3 and 4 of a suit with an outside Ace or King. Can you imagine your teammates in an IMP contest finding out you went -12 or -15 defending a part score? They would never play with you again.

3. At Matchpoints, bid 3NT if you are behind late in a match, want to shoot, and you know your partner is okay with it. It might make for a top.

You have to have enough maturity to realize that pre-empts often work. If you normally do well, you can't let them stampede you into disaster. And who says the opponents are going to make their bid?

Well, that settles that. I don't know why we are even discussing this hand.