[lamford]

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South leads the 7♠. Plan the play.

An interesting auction, much discussed, and the hand will be known to many. Please comment even if you know the hand, but without giving the winning line. Of interest, also:
a) Do you agree with West's double?
b) Do you agree with East's 5NT?
c) Do you agree with West's 6S?
d) Do you agree with East's 6NT?

This post has been edited by lamford: 2014-September-24, 05:39

[PhantomSac]

Not an answer you will like haha but I will see what happens before deciding what to do in the end, don't really have to make a decision now, I will win the ace and drive the spade and see what happens.

eg if RHO shifts to a club, I can win the ace and play a diamond to the king and cash the spades. If RHO pitches a club I will cash the ace of hearts. If the K or Q does not drop then I assume RHO has 5332. If the K or Q drops I will play for 5242.* If RHO does not pitch a club and pitches a heart, I will do the same thing. If the K or Q does not drop I will play RHO for 5431. If the K or Q does drop I will have to decide if I will probably play for 5341 but might play for 5332, we'll see!

A better play is for RHO to shift to the king of hearts. If they do that I lose an entry and to play for QTxx of diamonds I will have to be really deep, but tbh I still might go for it lol. I know it is the EBU PREMIER LEAGUE but I think many opps will shift to a club and if they don't it's more likely they have QTxx of diamonds.

But I don't think this is one of those hands where you need to make a decision at this point, you just need to see what they do and decide then.

edit: OBV cannot cash the HA don't know what I was thinking.

[PhantomSac]

And see how retarded I am? I cannot cash the ace of hearts or I lose my entry in the above layout obv. So I probably would realize that and not do that at that point haha. My inclination is to play for QTxx of diamonds, maybe because it was posted here, but he did rip 6N and I don't think he would do that with Txxxx KQTx Qxx x unless he was just tilted by his double of 6S and it was out of spite.

[nige1]

lamford, on 2014-September-23, 06:26, said:

South leads the 7♠. Plan the play.
An interesting auction, much discussed, and the hand will be known to many. Please comment even if you know the hand, but without giving the winning line. Of interest, also:
a) Do you agree with West's double?
b) Do you agree with East's 5NT?
c) Do you agree with West's 6S?
d) Do you agree with East's 6NT?

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IMO

• Over 5♣: Double = 10, 5♠ = 9, Pass = 8.
• Over Double: 5N = 10, Pass = 9, 6♣ = 8, 5♦ = 7, 5♥ = 6. Especially in retrospect, pass seems increasingly attractive. Are the ♥ worth emphasis? What's the difference between 5N and 6♣? Should 6♣ show 1st round control and a grand-slam try. Or should it show a pronounced 2-suiter?
• Over 5N: 6♠ = 10.
• Over 6♠: Pass = 10, 6N = 9.
• Double wasn't explained as Lightner? Simplest line of play after ♠7 lead: Win ♠K. Cross to ♦A. If ♠ break then run them and finesse ♦7. If LHO has 5 ♠s then drive out ♠T and eventually take ♦J finesse.

[MrAce]

nige1, on 2014-September-23, 19:44, said:

Simplest line of play after ♠7 lead: Win ♠K. Cross to ♦A. If ♠ break then run them and finesse ♦7. If LHO has 5 ♠s then drive out ♠T and eventually take ♦ finesse.

You are talking as if spades behave or if diamond finesse works you have 12 tricks in hand. If both spades behave and dia finesse works you have 6♠+1♥+1♣+3♦. These spades won't behave btw. Taking the first trick with A can be vital if you need double dia finesse or if N holds KQ ♥. This will keep your ducks in line.

[PhantomSac]

lol @ spades breaking. Good luck with that.

[nige1]

PhantomSac, on 2014-September-23, 21:01, said:

lol @ spades breaking. Good luck with that.

Thank you Good luck to you with your 1st round deep ♦ finesse if you lose a ♠ and get a ♥ return.

[mikeh]

FWIW, I can't imagine a competent North doubling this contract, or a competent S leading a spade, if spades weren't 5-1, and I am happy that the 8 is in dummy, since without it I would be in real trouble....ok...even more trouble.

I agree with winning the A since otherwise our options in diamonds are limited by the need to use the diamond K to cross to establish the spades.


Give N the spade 10 and now what does he return?

I think, without a high level of confidence, that most good players, with the KQ hearts, would play a heart honour back at us.

So we run the spades, and have 7 tricks played, needing the balance. We have void, Jx Kxx J in dummy and void void AJ9xx A in hand.

If he has returned a heart honour, I will play the diamond K and hook the J (or the 9 if S drops the Q), playing for 3-2 diamonds with the Q onside or 4-1, stiff Q offside.

If north returned a club, I will assume split heart honours. I will win the Ace, cross in hearts. If S shows an honour, I will assume it is stiff and play diamonds as above. if S shows a small heart, I will assume diamonds are 4-1 and hope the stiff is an x...low to the 9, back to the K (after cashing the spade of course).

So maybe a good N, looking at the KQ of hearts, should return a club

[mikeh]

PhantomSac, on 2014-September-23, 17:15, said:

he did rip 6N and I don't think he would do that with Txxxx KQTx Qxx x unless he was just tilted by his double of 6S and it was out of spite.

he didn't double spades....maybe I misunderstood you...I agree tho that he might have doubled 6N because he hadn't doubled 6♠ and we ran from a contract he knew he could beat. That shouldn't make him double, but it might have.

Edit: ok, so he did, in fact, double 6♠ but, as of when this post was first written, the OP had N passing. At least this supports the inference that I didn't, and still don't, know anything about the actual hand/result

[MrAce]

mikeh, on 2014-September-23, 23:31, said:

he didn't double spades....maybe I misunderstood you...I agree tho that he might have doubled 6N because he hadn't doubled 6♠ and we ran from a contract he knew he could beat. That shouldn't make him double, but it might have.

Interesting that, without a dbl of 6 NT, a possible heart lead can be killing lead, especially if N holds KQ ♥

[MickyB]

mikeh, on 2014-September-23, 23:31, said:

he didn't double spades....maybe I misunderstood you...I agree tho that he might have doubled 6N because he hadn't doubled 6♠ and we ran from a contract he knew he could beat. That shouldn't make him double, but it might have.

Weird - when I was given the hand, North had doubled 6S.

[rhm]

I think the bidding is normal.
In spite of the double the lead looks strange if preemptor has ♣K and ♣Q.
So North has probably a singleton club honor and South most likely distribution is 1♠=2♥=1♦=9♣. He could be void in diamonds.
I can not imagine North doubling without 5 spades to the ten.
I think the difficult play is at trick one.
You must win in dummy with the ace to preserve entries and establish spades and eventually take the percentage line in diamonds, which means low to the ♦7 on the first round (assuming a heart return, since I would cross in diamonds on a club return, catering to a singleton diamond honor with the preemptor).

Rainer Herrmann

[lamford]

MickyB, on 2014-September-24, 02:18, said:

Weird - when I was given the hand, North had doubled 6S.

My error, corrected now. I think one can assume spades are 5-1, and I wonder if the second double cancels the spade lead? Perhaps not. Declarer at the only table I know ran the spade round to the king, which seems wrong. I am pretty sure it is right, as rhm says, to win in dummy and knock out the spade but then it is very close between playing North for Txxxx KQxx Qxx x and Txxxx KQx QTxx x. Vacant spaces suggests they are equally likely, but you survive on QTx in the first case if you hook the nine. Essentially, North is about 2:1 on to have the ten of diamonds, which is the only card that matters in practice, as you are always playing him for the queen.

[nige1]

MrAce, on 2014-September-23, 19:58, said:

You are talking as if spades behave or if diamond finesse works you have 12 tricks in hand. If both spades behave and dia finesse works you have 6♠+1♥+1♣+3♦. These spades won't behave btw. Taking the first trick with A can be vital if you need double dia finesse or if N holds KQ ♥. This will keep your ducks in line.

If ♠ behave, then you do have 12 tricks, unless the 5♣ bidder has four ♦.

[wynsten]

lamford, on 2014-September-24, 05:47, said:

I wonder if the second double cancels the spade lead?

North's double of West's 6S cannot have been a request for a spade lead against 6S since he was on lead. And if it requested a spade lead against a future 6NT, why would he "cancel" it after 6NT was bid.
I think he doubled 6S because he thought it was not going to make, in which case he should have passed. The risk-reward of a penalty double of 6S is not favourable. And he should also have passed 6NT for the same reason.

[lamford]

wynsten, on 2014-September-24, 09:09, said:

North's double of West's 6S cannot have been a request for a spade lead against 6S since he was on lead. And if it requested a spade lead against a future 6NT, why would he "cancel" it after 6NT was bid.

I agree both doubles were poor bids, but North is currently a member of the team leading the event, so what do I know? I did not suggest the double of 6S was lead-directing, but it appeared to have got South to lead a spade against 6NT. I think the second double should mean "make a non-standard lead". Only a heart would have beaten the contract in theory.

[nige1]

mikeh, on 2014-September-23, 23:29, said:

[SNIP] If north returned a club, I will assume split heart honours. I will win the Ace, cross in hearts. If S shows an honour, I will assume it is stiff and play diamonds as above. if S shows a small heart, I will assume diamonds are 4-1 and hope the stiff is an x...low to the 9, back to the K (after cashing the spade of course) [SNIP]

If RHO returns a club, it's probably better to cross in ♦ rather than ♥.

[nige1]

lamford, on 2014-September-24, 10:04, said:

I agree both doubles were poor bids, but North is currently a member of the team leading the event, so what do I know? I did not suggest the double of 6S was lead-directing, but it appeared to have got South to lead a spade against 6NT. I think the second double should mean "make a non-standard lead". Only a heart would have beaten the contract in theory.

If the doubler holds ♠ T x x x ♥ K Q x x ♦Q x x ♣ x x it might be a brilliant effort, achieving a plus score on a hand where opponents can make 7NT. Anyway, congratulations, phantomsac for sussing out the actual distribution

[lamford]

nige1, on 2014-September-24, 17:09, said:

If the doubler holds ♠ T x x x ♥ K Q x x ♦Q x x ♣ x x it might be a brilliant effort, achieving a plus score on a hand where opponents can make 7NT.

Occam's razor says that the simplest explanation is the most likely. North doubled 6S because he was beating it; therefore he has five spades. Your post reminds me of this hand from the Chairman's Cup final:

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On board 2 of the last segment, North did not correct to the cold 7NT because he thought my partner might have made a psychic lightner double trying to get them out of 7S. I said at the time that would have been a brilliant effort.

This post has been edited by diana_eva: 2014-September-24, 23:20
Reason for edit: fixed diagram

[lamford]

Does a moderator know how to get the BBO hand link larger, and on the board in question?