[Cyberyeti]

the hog, on 2014-July-24, 23:36, said:

Explain why 6C makes more often than 6S please.You are known to have at least an 8 card S fit.

Not sure it makes more often, it goes less off when it fails, if you're forced to ruff a heart at trick 2, the club suit is dead if it doesn't run in a spade contract.

[Fluffy]

The only time when 6 clubs wins and 6 spades doesn't is when your only loser is ♣Q... the card you can normally ruff playing in spades. Also possible when dummy happens to have 4 red tricks and you can pitch your third spade. All of them are trully remote.

[whereagles]

the hog, on 2014-July-24, 23:36, said:

Explain why 6C makes more often than 6S please.You are known to have at least an 8 card S fit.

I think black slams are probably equivalent in odds. It's not really a question of fit length but more this: if a heart force jeopardises dummy's clubs in 6♠, then 6♣ will require some club luck too.

[Cyberyeti]

whereagles, on 2014-July-25, 01:36, said:

I think black slams are probably equivalent in odds. It's not really a question of fit length but more this: if a heart force jeopardises dummy's clubs in 6♠, then 6♣ will require some club luck too.

Unless partner has stiff Q and a defender has 10xxx.

[dake50]

5C is very good if, as seems likely, the auction continues. Partner will draw the correct inference after 5S.

*** Yup, but is that "other" or "5c to play" in the choices?

[mikeh]

the hog, on 2014-July-24, 23:36, said:

Explain why 6C makes more often than 6S please.You are known to have at least an 8 card S fit.

The odds of having fewer than 8 clubs are pretty long, since one can suppose the opps have a big heart fit, and partner didn't make a roman jump overcall (note this is the expert forum where 4♦ to show a spade-diamond 2 suited overcall would be common).

As it is, consider a normal layout such as KQxxx xx AKx Qxx. Try making 6♠ on a 4-1 trump break.

Obviously, there are many layouts on which spades will indeed be superior to clubs. I don't think it possible to be precise in saying which is the more likely...clubs or spades...since a simulation would be so dependent on constraints.

I think the main problem with spades is that any opp with 3 spades, surely a possible holding, can make the 2 slams equivalent even when on the surface spades is better...they simply force dummy to ruff at trick 2 and render slam dependent on bringing the clubs home with no ruff and no loser.

By contrast, if we need to ruff spades to establish them, then the odds are high that dummy will have the entries to do that, in diamonds or clubs.

So my sense is that when a slam is making, it will usually be both, and when it is merely one black suit, it will, by a slight margin, be clubs. But your experiences may lead you to the different view, and I doubt that either would be able to 'prove' who was correct. The actual result on this hand would be but one data point and unpersuasive no matter what it shows.

[mikeh]

dake50, on 2014-July-25, 08:17, said:

5C is very good if, as seems likely, the auction continues. Partner will draw the correct inference after 5S.

*** Yup, but is that "other" or "5c to play" in the choices?

why should it continue? Surely you don't expect expert opps to save at the 5-level on the auction 2♥ [2♠] 4♥ [5♣] P P ?

I don't think that sounds like an auction in which any good player would dream of bidding again.

[gszes]

bidding goes (unfavorable 2h by rho) and you hold
xx KQJTxx QJx Qx let me see a show of hands for a 2s bid

xx KQJTxx QJx xx still 2s? maybe a few less hands

xx KQJTxx xxx xx any 2s bidders? (ill bet there are some)

the point is we have no SAFE way of investigating slam if our
overcall range is a potentially wide as shown here and I am
afraid a 2s bid will be made with these types of values a
LOT. We are fixed and we should probably stay fixed. Rho
had a chance to make life really tough on us by bidding 5h
instead of 4h so it is quite possible that rho bid 4h to
make and would love to x us if we venture further.

4s

there will be some hands where 5c is superior but spades should
be the overall favorite unless our side can make slam.

[jallerton]

PhilKing, on 2014-July-23, 17:43, said:

I feel like Gszes.

Although he usually votes for "other".

Keep using up the full width of the page. Then the feeling will quickly go away.

[gnasher]

mikeh, on 2014-July-23, 10:19, said:

I think this is one of those rare hands where unilateral action may be best. I bid 6♣.

I don't like it. I don't choose it because I like it. I choose it because I dislike it the least of the various options available at this stage.

I choose 6♣ because I like it. I like it because it may well make, and I like the fact that the opponents won't know whether to save or not.

[jogs]

whereagles, on 2014-July-25, 01:36, said:

I think black slams are probably equivalent in odds. It's not really a question of fit length but more this: if a heart force jeopardises dummy's clubs in 6♠, then 6♣ will require some club luck too.

The slams are probably close. But if things go wrong, 6♣ should go down fewer tricks than 6♠. 7-1 play better than 5-3. The club suit may be worth only two tricks in spades.

[Fluffy]

Why are you guys thinking that partner has 5 spades?, the average for a 2♠ overcall I think its close to 6.

[Cyberyeti]

Fluffy, on 2014-July-26, 07:50, said:

Why are you guys thinking that partner has 5 spades?, the average for a 2♠ overcall I think its close to 6.

6 spades or 5 spades/5♦ are quite likely, but partner might be a bit snookered, he appears to be holding some hearts so 5341 and too much to pass must be possible.

[Fluffy]

why some hearts?

[Cyberyeti]

Fluffy, on 2014-July-26, 23:29, said:

why some hearts?

Because opps green v red with a 6-5 fit might have bid more than 4

[whereagles]

Fluffy, on 2014-July-26, 07:50, said:

Why are you guys thinking that partner has 5 spades?, the average for a 2♠ overcall I think its close to 6.

Because albeit that's the theory, in practice everybody overcalls with 5 cards

[whereagles]

jogs, on 2014-July-25, 21:18, said:

The slams are probably close. But if things go wrong, 6♣ should go down fewer tricks than 6♠. 7-1 play better than 5-3. The club suit may be worth only two tricks in spades.

That is correct, yes.

[Fluffy]

Cyberyeti, on 2014-July-27, 02:09, said:

Because opps green v red with a 6-5 fit might have bid more than 4

People don't jump to the 5 level without tryin the 4 level as much as you think, and it just takes a 6-4 fit for partner to have less than 3 hearts.

whereagles, on 2014-July-27, 03:09, said:

Because albeit that's the theory, in practice everybody overcalls with 5 cards

The also overcall 2♠ with 7.

[gnasher]

Won't partner bid 2♠ on most opening hands that have five spades? Some 51(43) or 5044 shapes will double, and some hands will overcall 2NT or 4♦, but all the 5332 13-counts will bid 2♠.

[whereagles]

Fluffy, on 2014-July-27, 03:26, said:

The also overcall 2♠ with 7.

Yes, but usually the bid with 7 spades is game