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fit vs hcp

#1 User is online   mike777 

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Posted 2013-December-29, 03:31

I think many of us....me and perhaps you...forget that fit vs hcp is more important....



5-3 and minimum =crap

bigger fit with minimum=ok


YES I get tired of pards bidding on with 5-3 and crap....:(
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#2 User is offline   jogs 

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Posted 2013-December-29, 19:23

The estimate of our tricks for the general case.

E(tricks) = trumps + (HCP-20)/3 + e

But I suspect it is really
E(tricks) = 8(=4+4) + (HCP-20)/3 + e
where the expected value of e is zero.
E(tricks) = 8(=5+3) + (HCP-20)/3 + e
where the expected value of e > zero.
Not clear how much greater than zero.
Definitely less than 1/3 of a trick.

Only it is difficult to find an unbiased sample
to test this assumption.

Your partners are probably over adjusting.
They should just bid game with a 5-3 major
fit and at least 25 points. Let the opponents
play game with 24 or less.
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