[Jinksy]

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In a close teams match, you're in 4S. S leads the 7S. Whatever you play from dummy, N plays the 3. Should N ever get on lead, he returns the C 2. What line will you try?

Highlight any of the relevant lines below for more info about how the cards actually lie, in case of branching plays:

KD location - KD is offside

D split - N has 3

H honours - they're split

H lie - breaking 3-3

S honours - both with N

S split - N has 4

C honours - split, S has the A

[CamHenry]

I expect S to have led from a singleton, as any other holding makes his lead dangerous at best. He therefore almost certainly doesn't have a full opening hand (given the lack of a TOX or overcall), meaning N should have some honours outside spades as well.

I have 5♠ tricks if they're 4-1 with N, two ♥ honours, 3 ♦ tricks, and therefore I just need to establish the ♦, take ♠ finesses, and not lose control/3 tricks first. The risks are the ♦ finesse offside, then losing two ♣ tricks and a ♣ overruff.

I cover the lead in case N feels like making an error, then lead dummy's top trump (and run it unless covered). If N does cover, I win in hand, unblock the ♥K, and cross the the ♦A. On the ♥A I pitch a ♣, coming to

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I can now lead a trump for the third finesse, draw the last trump, and play the ♦7. Whatever the return, I'm OK: I've established 10 tricks, and if he plays a ♣ he takes the finesse for me.

If I'm wrong and spades do split 3-2, or S has an honour, the situation is revealed early on. I can then adjust my line to play for a ♣ ruff in dummy.

[WellSpyder]

CamHenry, on 2013-November-26, 05:01, said:

I expect S to have led from a singleton, as any other holding makes his lead dangerous at best. He therefore almost certainly doesn't have a full opening hand (given the lack of a TOX or overcall), meaning N should have some honours outside spades as well.

I have 5♠ tricks if they're 4-1 with N, two ♥ honours, 3 ♦ tricks, and therefore I just need to establish the ♦, take ♠ finesses, and not lose control/3 tricks first. The risks are the ♦ finesse offside, then losing two ♣ tricks and a ♣ overruff.

I cover the lead in case N feels like making an error,

What error are you thinking of? If you are going to play N for all the remaining trumps isn't his error NOT covering ♠9 rather than covering it, given the shortage of convenient entries to dummy?

Quote

then lead dummy's top trump (and run it unless covered). If N does cover, I win in hand, unblock the ♥K, and cross the the ♦A. On the ♥A I pitch a ♣, coming to

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I can now lead a trump for the third finesse, draw the last trump, and play the ♦7. Whatever the return, I'm OK: I've established 10 tricks, and if he plays a ♣ he takes the finesse for me.

Are you still well-placed if ♦10 wins the trick?

[Jinksy]

CamHenry, on 2013-November-26, 05:01, said:

I expect S to have led from a singleton, as any other holding makes his lead dangerous at best.

Really? My initial reasoning was almost the opposite - that a stiff trump is a very dangerous lead, and xx, xxx, Kxx, Kxxx, and maybe even Jxx are all more appealing holdings to lead from - and that on this auction the S lead suggested D values.

Turns out I was completely wrong, or at least that this S agreed with you. My argument against expecting a stiff trump lead is a) the likelihood of trapping P's honours that weren't otherwise dropping, b) that being a textbook 'bad lead' for the reasons in a. Textbooks esp on lead can contain pretty dubious advice though, so I'm interested in hearing an argument against my expectation - what's your reasoning?

[CamHenry]

Jinksy said:

Really? My initial reasoning was almost the opposite - that a stiff trump is a very dangerous lead, and xx, xxx, Kxx, Kxxx, and maybe even Jxx are all more appealing holdings to lead from - and that on this auction the S lead suggested D values.

Jxx is one of my least favourite trump holdings to lead from. If partner's got Qx, we give up his trump trick; if he's got Kx we gain nothing. It's only really viable if there's a good reason for a passive lead and there's nothing more passive to lead.

As for the play at trick 1: if S has the length, he has both outstanding honours since N should cover from J, K, Jx, Kx or KJ. In that case you have to rely on an endplay, and stripping S of exit cards relies on a rather narrow distribution.

WellSpyder, on 2013-November-26, 05:46, said:

What error are you thinking of? If you are going to play N for all the remaining trumps isn't his error NOT covering ♠9 rather than covering it, given the shortage of convenient entries to dummy?

Are you still well-placed if ♦10 wins the trick?

Good points on both: if N covers trick 1, you're going to have to take the ♦ finesse early for an extra entry. As for the second point: if the ♦10 holds, I still haven't lost any tricks. I need to fall back on guessing ♣, but I'm in the right hand to take a finesse. Since N has shown up with the KJ of spades, I play S for the ♣A, and lead to the J.

[Jinksy]

CamHenry, on 2013-November-26, 07:11, said:

Jxx is one of my least favourite trump holdings to lead from. If partner's got Qx, we give up his trump trick; if he's got Kx we gain nothing. It's only really viable if there's a good reason for a passive lead and there's nothing more passive to lead.

As for the play at trick 1: if S has the length, he has both outstanding honours since N should cover from J, K, Jx, Kx or KJ. In that case you have to rely on an endplay, and stripping S of exit cards relies on a rather narrow distribution.

I'm only really thinking about your initial assumption here, before RHO has even followed. I agree Jxx isn't nice, but a priori I would guess it has higher expectation than leading a singleton, esp on an auction like this, where there's a good chance even if P has the Q, both S honours are to your right. Meanwhile surely xx and xxx are more attractive trump leads than x?

[CamHenry]

Jinksy, on 2013-November-26, 08:08, said:

I'm only really thinking about your initial assumption here, before RHO has even followed. I agree Jxx isn't nice, but a priori I would guess it has higher expectation than leading a singleton, esp on an auction like this, where there's a good chance even if P has the Q, both S honours are to your right. Meanwhile surely xx and xxx are more attractive trump leads than x?

I don't know - xxx is nice, yes, but xx is dangerous as well. If partner's got Qxx and you lead from xx, you pick up the suit when declarer otherwise needs to make a guess. As for the singleton lead, it's not going to cost on many layouts where partner has 4 cards (declarer would get most of them right or right-ish).

[Jinksy]

Hm, it'd be interesting to see some simming of this. Shame David Bird's book didn't cover it.

[billw55]

I agree that a singleton trump is usually a bad lead. But there are players around who will auto-lead a trump rather than away from any honor card. Against opponents I respect, I would think xx or xxx the most likely holdings, followed by Kxx or Kxxx, Jxx less likely, x even less, and KJx or KJxx never.

[helene_t]

GIB leads singleton trumps very often.

[TWO4BRIDGE]

Jinksy, on 2013-November-26, 04:45, said:

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In a close teams match, you're in 4S. S leads the 7S. Whatever you play from dummy, N plays the 3. Should N ever get on lead, he returns the C 2. What line will you try?

If the lead was a stiff trump, you can pick up the rest of the trumps.

You only lose 1d and 2c ... and you don't need to pitch a Diam on the ♥A...
.... you may need to overtake the ♥K w/Ace for an entry for another trump finesse.

[billw55]

helene_t, on 2013-November-26, 14:37, said:

GIB leads singleton trumps very often.

GIB doing it doesn't mean much to me either way.

What do you think? Is a singleton trump often an attractive lead?

[cherdano]

This is the first time I ever read the claim that leading a small singleton trump is less dangerous than leading from a small doubleton trump.

[mikeh]

cherdano, on 2013-November-26, 17:00, said:

This is the first time I ever read the claim that leading a small singleton trump is less dangerous than leading from a small doubleton trump.

Oh, I don't have any doubt that it is a worse lead, unless the opps are somehow known to have great trump, or we are defending a sacrifice where we rate to have winners in all the side suits and getting trump off dummy is imperative.

There are just too many holdings where a stiff trump blows the suit while xx either doesn't or might not.

Any 5-3 fit missing the J

Any 9 card fit missing the Q

Some 8 card fits missing the Q

Going back to the OP, while I agree that I would rarely expect good opps to lead a stiff trump on this auction, maybe he is in trouble in the other suits and chose this as a least of evils choice. Hearts seem likely to be more logical, but who likes, say, Jxx?

Meanwhile, the spot in spades is a give-away. Once N ducked (obviously we cover in dummy), what holdings remain?

He didn't lead from J7, KJ7, K7 (surely even GIB doesn't do that?)

Would he lead the 7 from KJ7x? I doubt it.

From J7x or K7x? I don't think so. I doubt there is any bridge reason not to, assuming one choose to lead from that holding...the 7 is unlikely to cost more than the x, but people are generally creatures of habit and would lead the x.

So I think we are reduced to inferring that he led from 7x or a stiff.

Ii would definitely repeat the spade hook by advancing the 8. Surely N covers now? If not, I pull trump.

If he covers, I win, cross in diamonds, pull trump and lead a diamond to the 10. I will win 5 spades, 3 diamonds and one trick in each clubs and hearts.

Trying to unblock the hearts is an illusion, once spades are known. For example, if the opps duck the diamond 10, which is best defence, I lead a heart to my K and then the diamond Q. They cannot help but establish either a club or the heart A for me, for my 10th trick, even if diamonds are 5-2 and the long diamonds hold 2 club entries. Equally, playing for a club hook is meaningless....just lead low to the 10.

[EricK]

helene_t, on 2013-November-26, 14:37, said:

GIB leads singleton trumps very often.

So does Jack 5.0. And it is amazing how rarely it seems to cost when he chooses to do it

[helene_t]

billw55, on 2013-November-26, 14:59, said:

GIB doing it doesn't mean much to me either way.

What do you think? Is a singleton trump often an attractive lead?

No but that's mainly because if partner has Jxxx, Qxxx or Qxx it may help declarer single dummy. DD it is ok. SO it is not so surprising that GIB makes singleton trump leads often.

[Jinksy]

Do you mean the robots lead singleton trumps at the table? If so I don't see why they'd be likely to prioritise a DD defence - they must have been optimised for SD play.