Posted 2014-January-31, 18:54
Windows 8 does, indeed, imply there was a Windows 1..7. But not "plus Vista (6), ME (4, I think - I try to minimize my thinking about Windows ME Harder), XP (5)".
Microsoft has spent so long with "we know what we want you to work like" (and frankly, they're right often enough!) and "you have to use Office on Windows" that they can, and have, just changed the UI and Office behaviour, and their customers will learn. After all, "We don't care. We don't have to. We're the Phone Company Microsoft." Oldsters will know the Office 95 debacle, where Microsoft stepped on "what users want" majorly the first time; it may have been "what users want" (and Office 95 was, in fact, really nice, especially the format that should still be used today), but it was so different from the previous versions that everyone needed retraining. And that's fine when it's your IT staff, or your high-level accountants and spreadsheet and template builders; it's less so when it's every office assistant learning how to type a letter again. When MS brought out the next Office version, they had *incredible* resistance to uptake on a product that businesses had, before, routinely just upgraded; even though they'd learned their lesson (which stuck until the damn ribbon - who came up with the bright idea to eat vertical space just as widescreen monitors came in?) and Office 97 had a very easy transition model. Since then, MS has had to do a lot of interesting things to "encourage" people to upgrade Office.
And then came Windows ME. After that, businesses didn't routinely upgrade from Windows 98SE to XP when it came out, because of all their woes downgrading from ME back to 98SE. And, frankly, XP SP0 ... had its teething problems. We all now think of XP as the great stable MS OS version, but that's because they really did do a good job with their SPs (in particular SP2. SP3 was a stability/malware protection issue, primarily; there wasn't much user differences in it).
Businesses, knowing of their experiences with XP SP0 and ME, now *by default* do not plan an upgrade process until 6 months after a release comes out, and do not implement that plan until 14-24 months after - waiting for the early adopters to find out if it's an Even Star Trek Movie MS OS or not. As a result, most big businesses avoided the Vista trap, and waited for Vista SP1 Windows 7. It's only now, frankly, that some companies are going from "we're moving to W7" to "images are being rolled out".
MS has two big problems right now:
- tablets/phones/... are big. The long-heralded "death of the PC", at least for personal use, may in fact be at hand; or if not, it might sit on the shelf as a media delivery vehicle to the tablet/TV. You don't need Office for that, and you certainly don't need a new OS. Laptops are dying even worse, but those that are being sold are being sold with touchscreens, making them "tablets with keyboards".
- You just don't need Office any more. You haven't needed Office for a long time - Open/LibreOffice has been usable for 90% of us for years - but "nobody" had heard of it. Google Docs, now; that people have heard of. And it comes with "on-the-web" storage for "free" (Google gets to mine it for ad generation purposes, and the NSA gets to mine it for ...whatever they use it for, and...)
- The only other thing people do on computers that *requires* Windows is games. But traditional games as a section of the market are disappearing into the Candy Crush and other microtransaction vehicles (that can be spun up at a fraction of the cost of a "real" computer game, and can make massively more), and then they're trying to get the XBone (and stop the PS4) from taking a lot of even that.
So in order to survive, what the user wants is irrelevant. If they can't get computers running Windows on the same "intuitive" interface as the tablets (running Windows), they're in trouble. Look at what they're pushing. Windows 8 with big blocky "start screens" that would work very well on an 11" touchscreen, with no mouse or keyboard in sight. Surface RT: "The tablet that runs Office." Yes, they know it will fail insanely beautifully on power users' 3 1920x1400 widescreen monitors; but nobody does that any more, do they?
And finally, the "non-geek user" wants what the "non-geek user" has. They hate change; and they hate having to pay again for something that didn't change. But they have to kill off XP somehow, or again, they don't survive.
When I go to sea, don't fear for me, Fear For The Storm -- Birdie and the Swansong (tSCoSI)