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3NT or 4H

#1 User is offline   kgr 

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Posted 2013-May-18, 04:34

MP's

From a discussion at the bar. Someone said that 3NT is more likely to make than 4H.
What is your opinion?
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#2 User is offline   ArtK78 

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Posted 2013-May-18, 04:39

I would put my money on 4. 3NT could be the winning call, but 4 is probably more likely to make. It is certainly likely to go down less when it fails.
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#3 User is offline   32519 

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Posted 2013-May-18, 04:45

View Postkgr, on 2013-May-18, 04:34, said:

From a discussion at the bar. What is your opinion?


View PostArtK78, on 2013-May-18, 04:39, said:

I would put my money on 4.

I would put my money on the bar. :P
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#4 User is offline   Lord Molyb 

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Posted 2013-May-18, 06:40

Would not even consider 3NT for a moment... I would actually texas transfer.
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#5 User is offline   Free 

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Posted 2013-May-18, 09:51

3NT is either the alcohol or a resulter talking.
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#6 User is offline   JLOGIC 

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Posted 2013-May-18, 10:06

Def 4H
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#7 User is offline   FM75 

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Posted 2013-May-18, 22:04

View Postkgr, on 2013-May-18, 04:34, said:

MP's

From a discussion at the bar. Someone said that 3NT is more likely to make than 4H.
What is your opinion?

Assuming that the person claiming that 3NT is more like to make than 4H... Unstated, but let's assume the 3NT is 15-17 balanced to semi-balanced. Do they bid 1N even with 5 card major, also not mentioned.

It seems to me that S has 2 choices.
2 transfer to 2, pass
and 4 transfer to 4 pass (Texas, and preemptive if they play Texas).

The likelihood of making 3N is irrelevant unless NS has some unmentioned convention related to a possible continuation over 2. North did not super-accept, which might reasonably have been an option.

South has an 8 loser hand (LTC) even assuming a 3 card heart fit. That suggest 9 max tricks in hearts, but not in NT. Entries to South hand? :)
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#8 User is offline   helene_t 

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Posted 2013-May-19, 07:19

Maybe 3nt is more likely to make when opener has 3 hearts but if he has only two the risk that the hearts don't run is.substantial . So he will correct to 4he on the wrong hands. If you believe in 3nt you should bid it without transfer .

Anyway i would not consider 3nt .
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#9 User is offline   Free 

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Posted 2013-May-19, 10:27

This hasn't been mentioned, but the hands where opener has singleton K (or whatever singleton actually) also play better in 4.
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