[MickyB]

Both vul, imps, partner deals.

3N-P

KQ98xx QJ xx AKx

3N shows seven solid without an outside ace or king.

[hrothgar]

 MickyB, on 2013-March-08, 17:38, said:

Both vul, imps, partner deals.

3N-P

KQ98xx QJ xx AKx

3N shows seven solid without an outside ace or king.

The odds of a heart lead seem very high

Let's assume that partner is 7-3-2-1 with a stiff spade, two clubs and three hearts.
Odds look to be 3/11 that partner holds the 10.

I'm pulling

[PhilKing]

4♣. I don't really understand the problem. Yes, partner could have Txx in hearts, but he probably doesn't.

[Fluffy]

The problem is that either of 3NT, 4♦, 4♠ or 5♦ could be the winner. I think 4♦ is the most plausible best contract, but I'd bet at least 1 game is makeable.

[JLOGIC]

I would easily bet against 1 game being makable given even odds.

[MickyB]

Ok, cool. A couple of decent players disagreed [one advocating pass, another advocating 4S] so I thought it was worth posting.

Pard held J T8xx AKQJxxx J, is this a firing squad offence?

[PhilKing]

 MickyB, on 2013-March-08, 18:37, said:

Ok, cool. A couple of decent players disagreed [one advocating pass, another advocating 4S] so I thought it was worth posting.

Pard held J T8xx AKQJxxx J, is this a firing squad offence?

I've seen worse, but it is bad. Did the players who advocated pass and 4♠ know the full hand?

[MickyB]

 PhilKing, on 2013-March-08, 18:49, said:

I've seen worse, but it is bad. Did the players who advocated pass and 4♠ know the full hand?

The passer had been given the hand by someone else, I don't know if he selected pass before being given the full story. The 4S bidder was in the dark.

[MickyB]

Spades were 6-0 btw, so the 4S bidder was certainly not resulting!

[the hog]

4C and I do not understand the problem.

[Fluffy]

 JLOGIC, on 2013-March-08, 18:26, said:

I would easily bet against 1 game being makable given even odds.

What do you mean by even odds? Maybe you would lose this one

So I used a not very good dealing program I have. I predealt our 13 cards, and then predealt partner AKQ94 in diamonds and filled the rest randomly... I tried dealing partner 7 diamodns that meant he would get a lot of 8 and 9 card suits. 5 diamonds still should produce too many 8 carders, but other than that seems fair and giving him just any random hand would go eternal.

#1 Guy on lead had xx Kx xx J109xxxx, a club lead against 3NT lets it make. But 7 heart west could have something to argue here.
#2 1174 with ♣Q 5♦ cold
#3 0571 3 games made including 4♥. but 5 card major is probably not an option, I should reject this one .
#4 2272 all down
#5 3073 with ♠10xx. spades 4-0 onside, 5♦ (from our side) and 4♠ makes.
#6 1381 with ♥10xx 3NT makes
#7 1183 with ♣Q 5♦ cold
#8 3172 with ♠J 4♠ is easy
#9 1372 all down
#10 2173 with ♣Q ♠J 5♦ makes and so does 4♠ althou this is probably too strong for 3NT opening
#11

---

5♦ is down double dummy on a trump lead, but it would make double dummy on any other lead rejecting spade finese and going for a double squeeze I think. But that's double dummy so lets say this is all down.

My dealing program is far fom perfect, but only 3/11 had every game down from the start. Perhaps 3/9 since 2 of them are very dubious 3NT openers. 7/11 (5/9) were easy makes

Still a very small sample probes nothing, but I am starting to think that my a priori hypothesis of 4♦>3NT>5♦>4♠ could be wrong, 4♠ is a strong contender to 5♦.

[PhilKing]

A club lead on hand one is beyond wooden.

I don't think it's right to open 3NT with 8 solid, particularly if 83 or with 7411. 2,3,6,7 and 11 sound like 5♦ openings. Holding a void is also bad, but hand #10 is fine.

PKgen ™ would assign partner a 7-carder then deal him 6 cards from the non-diamond non-AK deck and reject if he gets two queens of a 4-card suit. That may be a bit tight - perhaps 8221 is OK, so I might put 2 of the remaining six diamonds in the live deck.

[Fluffy]

 PhilKing, on 2013-March-09, 07:20, said:

A club lead on hand one is beyond wooden.

I though something along those lines at first but then... why is any other suit better?


and BTW the real hand was a 7-4, so maybe you are rejecting 7-4s and 8-3s too soon.

[PhilKing]

 Fluffy, on 2013-March-09, 07:58, said:

I though something along those lines at first but then... why is any other suit better?


and BTW the real hand was a 7-4, so maybe you are rejecting 7-4s and 8-3s too soon.

I just think a club lead is the equivalent of just conceding, since it it almost inconceivable that we can run the suit (have to be 7321 round the table with dummy holding Kx). I guess 7222 round the table with the ♥K as an entry is possible, but super-specific. Prospects that any lead works are really poor, but the ♥K has a puncher's chance of landing a knock-out.