[vuroth]

Do you want to be in 6♣ here or not? (Opponents silent.)

Scoring: MP

---

In the hidden part, I try to figure the odds:

Spoiler

Slam makes if:
Clubs are 2-2
Clubs are 3-1, AND I can hold the minors to 1 loser. My foresight isn't all that good, but I might need hearts to be 6-3 or better as well, right?

Ok clubs 2-2 is 41%
3-1 clubs, losing a diamond only. I need LHO to hold Hxx in clubs. A singleton honour happens in half of all 3-1s, and half the time south has the singleton. So 25% of 50%, or 12.5%
3-1 clubs, loing only a club. Now south has Hxx (12.5%), and the queen of diamonds is single or double
Q single is 1/5th of all 4-1 splits (.2x.28 = 5.6%)
Q double is 2/5s of all 3-2 splits (.4x.68 = 27.2%)
So 3-1 clubs for 1 club loser is 12.5% x (5.6% + 27.2%) = 4.1%

So my chances of making are: 41% + 12.5% + 4.1% = 57.6% more or less

I want to be in this slam, don't I?

[pooltuna]

vuroth, on Nov 10 2009, 10:18 AM, said:

Do you want to be in 6♣ here or not? (Opponents silent.)

Scoring: MP

---

In the hidden part, I try to figure the odds:

Spoiler

Slam makes if:
Clubs are 2-2
Clubs are 3-1, AND I can hold the minors to 1 loser. My foresight isn't all that good, but I might need hearts to be 6-3 or better as well, right?

Ok clubs 2-2 is 41%
3-1 clubs, losing a diamond only. I need LHO to hold Hxx in clubs. A singleton honour happens in half of all 3-1s, and half the time south has the singleton. So 25% of 50%, or 12.5%
3-1 clubs, loing only a club. Now south has Hxx (12.5%), and the queen of diamonds is single or double
Q single is 1/5th of all 4-1 splits (.2x.28 = 5.6%)
Q double is 2/5s of all 3-2 splits (.4x.68 = 27.2%)
So 3-1 clubs for 1 club loser is 12.5% x (5.6% + 27.2%) = 4.1%

So my chances of making are: 41% + 12.5% + 4.1% = 57.6% more or less

I want to be in this slam, don't I?

Well not sure of the odds but the chance for a 2-2♣, restricted choice possibilities in ♣, and Q or Qx of ♦ should be enough

[aguahombre]

All those calculations are mildly interesting, but how about the other reason for being in 6C? On a heart lead, you need the same either/or in the minors to make 3NT --and 6c scores better.

[jdonn]

I definitely want to be in slam. Picking up clubs is almost 50%, and not losing a diamond is something like 15%, and I only need either one if the other suit isn't awful. I wouldn't feel the need to get much more accurate to know I want to be in slam.

[Phil]

Picking up diamonds is a lot better than 15% Josh. Hx with 5 out is 27-28% plus you get 3% or so for the singleton Q's.

I make this ~:

((47%) for clubs for no losers) +
((53% x (33% x 95%)) for clubs with one loser (you can't pick up QJxx in left) = 16%)

= 63%.

This assumes you attempt ♣A checking for an honor, and hooking (RC).

You could endplay an opponent out of the ♦Q by eliminating the major suit cards and throwing him in. That would require an opponent to hold exactly 3=3=4=3 or ♦5/♣3 - which is not at all likely since it means an opponent stayed silent with 11 or 12 major suit cards.

Adding more pedantry - you could also play for a remote squeeze in ♠+♦

[cherdanno]

jdonn, on Nov 10 2009, 11:16 AM, said:

I definitely want to be in slam. Picking up clubs is almost 50%, and not losing a diamond is something like 15%, and I only need either one if the other suit isn't awful. I wouldn't feel the need to get much more accurate to know I want to be in slam.

I would, however, like to know about restricted choice when playing this slam!

[jdonn]

Yes Phil my bad, I for some reason estimated Qx or Q with lho not with either player. But you should know I'm stupid and careless lately.

[vuroth]

Quote

((47%) for clubs for no losers) +
((53% x (33% x 95%)) for clubs with one loser (you can't pick up QJxx in left) = 16%)

Shouldn't is be 90%, not 95%? Both 4-0s do you in.

Also, 47% is 41% for 2-2, plus 6% for singleton queen? Doesn't singleton jack work out the same? So 41% + 12 = 53% for clubs with no losers?

(That said, my original math didn't take into account that all 3-1s can be played for 1 loser.)

So 53% + (47% x 33% * 90%) = 67%?

[Phil]

vuroth, on Nov 10 2009, 11:57 AM, said:

Quote

((47%) for clubs for no losers) +
((53% x (33% x 95%)) for clubs with one loser (you can't pick up QJxx in left) = 16%)

Shouldn't is be 90%, not 95%? Both 4-0s do you in.

Also, 47% is 41% for 2-2, plus 6% for singleton queen? Doesn't singleton jack work out the same? So 41% + 12 = 53% for clubs with no losers?

(That said, my original math didn't take into account that all 3-1s can be played for 1 loser.)

So 53% + (47% x 33% * 90%) = 67%?

No you can pick up QJxx on left. Remember you aren't trying to endplay him, only pick up the diamonds.

[Phil]

vuroth, on Nov 10 2009, 11:57 AM, said:

Also, 47% is 41% for 2-2, plus 6% for singleton queen? Doesn't singleton jack work out the same? So 41% + 12 = 53% for clubs with no losers?

No

You lose to the QJ dub offside, so one of the 2-2's gets tossed out.

[vuroth]

Phil, on Nov 10 2009, 12:15 PM, said:

vuroth, on Nov 10 2009, 11:57 AM, said:

Also, 47% is 41% for 2-2, plus 6% for singleton queen?  Doesn't singleton jack work out the same?  So 41% + 12 = 53% for clubs with no losers?

No

You lose to the QJ dub offside, so one of the 2-2's gets tossed out.

Right. /facepalm. I figured it would be something like that.

Thanks

[Jlall]

Looks like a great slam

[vuroth]

Part 2 I guess.

How would you bid it, south dealer, opps silent?

[Jlall]

vuroth, on Nov 10 2009, 05:56 PM, said:

Part 2 I guess.

How would you bid it, south dealer, opps silent?

1D-1N
3C-3H
3N-4C
4D-4H
6C

or something similar seems like a good auction.