[655321]

The straightforward diamond to queen, heart to queen, Ace and another heart, needing 3-2 hearts and both finesses, is around 17%. This looks like the line I would play at the table.

Trying for restricted choice in hearts by cashing the Ace at trick 2 might be OK if you get KJ or KT offside, but if you don't drop an honor you might need to play for Kx anyway (since after a diamond to the queen, and a heart up, RHO can win the king and play another diamond, taking out your entry to the clubs). So, if you do play Ace and a low heart at trick 2, you make when RHO has Kx (20% of 68%), and need the diamond finesse if LHO has Kx (10% of 68%), for more than 20% (less something for the chances of the club lead being a singleton...)

The lines where you ruff spades, and/or try to shorten the trumps in hand don't seem to be makeable. Perhaps playing for the club lead to be from 5 cards, and leading clubs through RHO might be possible.

[ArtK78]

There are three possibilities. One is the line that has been suggested - diamond to the Q, heart to the Q, ♥A, out a heart, claim.

The second line is ♠A, spade ruff, heart to Q, ♥A, diamond to the ACE, run clubs, hoping to dispose of 2 spades and 2 diamonds on the clubs before someone ruffs in.

The first line requires 3-2 hearts and two finesses onside.

The second line requires 3-2 hearts, the heart finesse onside, and at least 4 clubs in the hand with the long heart. There is a small additional chance that the ♦K is singleton offside, which means that you need to dispose of the spades only before someone ruffs in on the clubs.

The third choice is playing A and another heart, which needs Kx of hearts in either hand. There is a chance that you can handle singleton K in LHO's hand. If the ♥K fell, you could try to get to dummy by finessing the diamond and playing a heart through RHO, but RHO could split his JT, win the next round of hearts and play a diamond, killing the late entry to the clubs. But you might still survive if he has enough clubs.

This is a more interesting problem than I thought when I first saw it.

[hotShot]

ArtK78, on Jun 3 2008, 01:25 PM, said:

The second line requires 3-2 hearts, the heart finesse onside, and at least 4 clubs in the hand with the long heart.  There is a small additional chance that the ♦K is singleton offside, which means that you need to dispose of the spades only before someone ruffs in on the clubs.

If the ♣ lead was 5th and dropped the single K, you have a kind off ruffing finesse (playing ♣) through RHO's ♥, so this line will also work if LHO has the ♣ and RHO has long♥.

This post has been edited by hotShot: 2008-June-03, 05:36

[gnasher]

If you believe the lead, the best line is ♠A, spade ruff, cash clubs throwing spades.

That works with clubs 3-3 and hearts breaking onside. A priori, 3-3 is more than twice as likely as 5=1 or 1=5, so rather better than the diamond finesse.

If clubs are 5=1, you still have reasonable chances - if he ruffs with the king you can discard a spade; if he ruffs low or middle you overruff, ruff another spade and lead another top club, discarding a spade as East ruffs again. If clubs happen to be 4=2 - people don't always lead honestly against a slam - you can do something similar.

[ArtK78]

Another thought about the third line that I proposed in my prior post.

If you play the ♥A at trick two, someone may play the 10 or the J. That creats a restricted choice situation, but it is not as simple as that. The restricted choice analysis would say that if the person who played the 10 or the J has a doubleton heart, it is more likely to be the KT or KJ than the JT. However, if it is RHO who dropped the T or J of hearts under the ♥A, you may not succeed even if you are successful in felling the ♥K on air at trick 3. LHO may have led a singleton club, in which case the doubleton ♥K on your right will result in down one when RHO wins the heart and plays a second club. So, there is something to be said for trying to pin the JT of hearts in RHO's hand if RHO drops a heart honor under the ♥A.

Of course, if LHO has the doubleton ♥K, on winning the ♥K he will probably return a diamond. Now you need the diamond finesse to win also.

All in all, this is a very interesting hand indeed. It is difficult to say which line is best. I think A and another heart is best, except when RHO drops a heart honor under the A, in which case A followed by Q of hearts is probably best. Even though you need the diamond finesse to work if LHO wins the ♥K, LHO will not always work out that a diamond play is needed.

[FrancesHinden]

ArtK78, on Jun 3 2008, 03:30 PM, said:

Another thought about the third line that I proposed in my prior post.

If you play the ♥A at trick two, someone may play the 10 or the J. That creats a restricted choice situation, but it is not as simple as that. The restricted choice analysis would say that if the person who played the 10 or the J has a doubleton heart, it is more likely to be the KT or KJ than the JT. However, if it is RHO who dropped the T or J of hearts under the ♥A, you may not succeed even if you are successful in felling the ♥K on air at trick 3. LHO may have led a singleton club, in which case the doubleton ♥K on your right will result in down one when RHO wins the heart and plays a second club. So, there is something to be said for trying to pin the JT of hearts in RHO's hand if RHO drops a heart honor under the ♥A.

Of course, if LHO has the doubleton ♥K, on winning the ♥K he will probably return a diamond. Now you need the diamond finesse to win also.

All in all, this is a very interesting hand indeed. It is difficult to say which line is best. I think A and another heart is best, except when RHO drops a heart honor under the A, in which case A followed by Q of hearts is probably best. Even though you need the diamond finesse to work if LHO wins the ♥K, LHO will not always work out that a diamond play is needed.

Do you not think an opponent might play a heart honour from J10x?

[655321]

No new ideas about the play, but what do we make of the lead?

A club lead from 5 small does seem particularly unattractive, as well as (a priori) the singleton Ace being low percentage. Even a lead from 3 small clubs is not attractive. Normal on the auction would be a diamond from the king.

Then, the club was led either:

• West has 3 small in diamonds and clubs (some restricted choice), or
  
• because it is a singleton, or
  
• West has all the rest of the HCP, and (unaccountably ) did not allow for the actual 2NT opening, imagining a different hand for North and playing his partner for nothing.

[fred]

Some considerations that may not have occurred to all of you that happened to occur to me because I was the declarer

It is 100% that the King of Diamonds is offside (LHO would have led a diamond if he had the King).

It is 100% that LHO will return a diamond if he gains the lead (because he is a great player in a great partnership that happens to use suit preference signals in the trump suit).

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

[fred]

FrancesHinden, on Jun 3 2008, 02:42 PM, said:

ArtK78, on Jun 3 2008, 03:30 PM, said:

Another thought about the third line that I proposed in my prior post.

If you play the ♥A at trick two, someone may play the 10 or the J.  That creats a restricted choice situation, but it is not as simple as that.  The restricted choice analysis would say that if the person who played the 10 or the J has a doubleton heart, it is more likely to be the KT or KJ than the JT.  However, if it is RHO who dropped the T or J of hearts under the ♥A, you may not succeed even if you are successful in felling the ♥K on air at trick 3.  LHO may have led a singleton club, in which case the doubleton ♥K on your right will result in down one when RHO wins the heart and plays a second club.  So, there is something to be said for trying to pin the JT of hearts in RHO's hand if RHO drops a heart honor under the ♥A.

Of course, if LHO has the doubleton ♥K, on winning the ♥K he will probably return a diamond.  Now you need the diamond finesse to win also.

All in all, this is a very interesting hand indeed.  It is difficult to say which line is best.  I think A and another heart is best, except when RHO drops a heart honor under the A, in which case A followed by Q of hearts is probably best.  Even though you need the diamond finesse to work if LHO wins the ♥K, LHO will not always work out that a diamond play is needed.

Do you not think an opponent might play a heart honour from J10x?

Yes but...

When you cash the Ace of hearts both opponents followed (LHO with the Jack, RHO with a small card) in perfect tempo.

I would have expected LHO to be able to find the falsecard from J10x without a hitch. However, besides being one of the best players in the world, my RHO is also an extremely careful and thoughtful player. If he had Kx of hearts he certainly would have thought about unblocking. Maybe it would have only taken him only a second or two to realize that dropping the King of hearts under the Ace was not best, but I would have picked up on that at the table.

So I was pretty sure that this was not the layout.

Lots of interesting elements to this hand, but IMO one of the most striking points is how dramatically at-the-table considerations impacted my line of play (which from a purely technical point of view was certainly not correct).

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

[fred]

gnasher, on Jun 3 2008, 12:39 PM, said:

If you believe the lead, the best line is ♠A, spade ruff, cash clubs throwing spades.

That works with clubs 3-3 and hearts breaking onside.  A priori, 3-3 is more than twice as likely as 5=1 or 1=5, so rather better than the diamond finesse.

If clubs are 5=1, you still have reasonable chances - if he ruffs with the king you can discard a spade; if he ruffs low or middle you overruff, ruff another spade and lead another top club, discarding a spade as East ruffs again.  If clubs happen to be 4=2 - people don't always lead honestly against a slam - you can do something similar.

You should believe the lead.

In my experience you almost never see strong players lead a false-count card against a slam. This would be especially true of the pair I happened to be playing against (Levin-Weinstein) who I would personally rate as the most down-the-middle leading pair in the world. Besides that, when there is a good chance that at least one of the opponents has nothing resembling their bids, it is usually a bad idea to start giving your partner false count.

Furthermore...

The 2 of clubs could not be a singleton (RHO would not have played the Ace).

The 2 of clubs could not have been from xxxxx for 2 reasons:

1) LHO would have certainly preferred to lead from his (very likely) shorter diamond holding.

2) RHO thought for a second or two before playing the Ace of clubs.

So I thought it was 100% that LHO had led a club from xx2.

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

[awm]

Ace and a heart seems like the way to go here. The odds of RHO with ♥Kx are about 1/8 which is already about the same as taking the diamond finesse and then the heart finesse. If RHO has ♥Kx then playing hearts like this will always make (barring some unlikely development like clubs 5-1). But you also make if hearts are Kx on your left and the diamond finesse wins (adding about another 1/16).

It seems interesting to me that Fred views the diamond finesse as being "100% offside" because LHO would have lead a diamond -- is there something in particular about this auction that demands a diamond lead? Or are good players this eager to lead away from bare kings against a slam contract? Personally I have found that leading from kings gives away quite a number of slams that have no legitimate chances (and that the opponents bidding a slam with no legitimate chances is also fairly likely given the match situation). Even on a hand like this one, the certainty that "LHO would lead from ♦K" potentially helps declarer a lot in deciding the right line of play.

[fred]

awm, on Jun 3 2008, 09:19 PM, said:

It seems interesting to me that Fred views the diamond finesse as being "100% offside" because LHO would have lead a diamond -- is there something in particular about this auction that demands a diamond lead? Or are good players this eager to lead away from bare kings against a slam contract? Personally I have found that leading from kings gives away quite a number of slams that have no legitimate chances (and that the opponents bidding a slam with no legitimate chances is also fairly likely given the match situation). Even on a hand like this one, the certainty that "LHO would lead from ♦K" potentially helps declarer a lot in deciding the right line of play.

Yes, there is something in particular about the auction that suggests making your most aggressive minor suit lead.

Dummy showed a strong balanced hand (of course he didn't really have that).

Declarer suggested a strong playing hand with at least 10 cards in the majors.

Declarer jumped to slam without showing his pattern, cuebidding, or bidding Blackwood. This greatly increases the chances that he was gambling and did not want to give the defenders any additional info about the nature of his hand. The state of the match further increased the odds that 6H might be a shot.

I was not exaggerating when I claim it was 100% that Weinstein would have led a diamond if he had been dealt the King.

I don't think it is a good idea to make generalizations like "don't lead a away from a King against a slam". So much depends on the auction.

Some of you may have seen a hand earlier that day (I think it was one of the very first boards in the 4th segment) where I was on lead against 6D with something like:

1087
xxx
K109
KJxx

The bidding was (all by the opponents):

1D 1S
2H 3D
4C 4S
4NT 5D (or whatever)
6D

3D was forcing.

Note that my partner did not DBL 4S (and Brad likes to DBL in situations like this).

I sat there for about 5 minutes thinking about what to lead. That in itself was very strange - I sometimes play slowly but I rarely think more than 10 seconds or so before making an opening lead.

I thought this was an extremely difficult choice between a club and a spade (and which spade to lead is another interesting problem).

Eventually I opted for a spade (I might try to explain my reasoning another time).

Lucky for me that was the winner on this particular layout, but on a slightly different deal a club lead would have been necessary.

In general I don't like to make generalizations, but perhaps the following is reasonable:

The more distribution the opponents are likely the have, the more attractive it is to lead aggressively against their slam. If you don't setup/cash your tricks early they tend to go away when the opponents have a lot of shape.

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

[655321]

fred, on Jun 3 2008, 10:31 AM, said:

Furthermore...

The 2 of clubs could not be a singleton (RHO would not have played the Ace).

That is another excellent point that should have been obvious (but I missed it).

[y66]

Is the technically correct line HA then Hx hoping someone has Kx of hearts? But not relevant here because we don't think RHO has Kx (he might have hesitated when we played the ace) and we're not making if LHO has KJ (because he'll lead a diamond to RHO's king). So we have to try HA then HQ hoping to find JT with LHO and Kxx with RHO.

[ceeb]

awm, on Jun 3 2008, 04:19 PM, said:

Ace and a heart seems like the way to go here. The odds of RHO with ♥Kx are about 1/8 which is already about the same as taking the diamond finesse and then the heart finesse. If RHO has ♥Kx then playing hearts like this will always make (barring some unlikely development like clubs 5-1). But you also make if hearts are Kx on your left and the diamond finesse wins (adding about another 1/16).

I had the same instinct so I calculated and was surprised to find it's not true.

Disclaimer -- this calculation was before considering bridge aspects of the hand, in particular without taking cognizance of Fred's persuasive inferences about the ♦ finesse and the ♣ break. Hence this is just a sterile exercise of a priori probability:

♦ finesse, ♥finesse, ♥break adds up to 17.75% as 655321 said. (given odd club length, club ace known)

♥A, ♥ seems to win when RHO has ♥Kx (14%) but not against ♣Axxxx, so only a net of 10.3%.
It also wins when LHO has ♥Kx (13%) if the ♦K is also onside -- net of 7.1%
Total only 17.5%.

Well, practically a tie, which is broken by taking into account intangibles such as the idea that the opponents choice of play may be influenced by the cards they hold.

[gnasher]

What line did Fred play, and why?