[harikannan]

Playing teams and trailing, i held:

AT953
AKQT7
8
K6

and bid 7S hoping for a swing against silent opponents. Dummy was:

KJ64
J542
AK3
A4

After winning the opening lead of CQ, how should i play trumps? Any clues? Or just play for the drop?

Thanks in advance.

[awm]

There is a (somewhat old-fashioned) rule to lead a trump vs. a grand slam. If opponents believe in this rule, it makes sense to play opening leader for the queen. Assuming you know nothing of the opponents, I think this makes the finesse a bit better than the drop (a priori the drop is better but it is very close).

[apollo1201]

People tend to lead trumps to avoid blowing a trick since the trump suit is supposedly solid.

So either the leader is void or has the Q. Which does not help us decide.

More seriously it QJT9 C the lead looks safe enough.

So without any clue, I guess we have to go for the probabilites and play for the drop, with the extra chance of picking half of the 40 breaks.

[mw64ahw]

Isn't the maxim eight ever, nine never. Roughly 48% vs 52%.

[Cyberyeti]

mw64ahw, on 2025-June-28, 12:43, said:

Isn't the maxim eight ever, nine never. Roughly 48% vs 52%.

It is, but against grand slams experts normally lead a trump, so when they don't, the assumption is that they have the Q or don't have any trumps.

There is a horrible grand that got through with a trump suit of A10 opposite KJxxxx because a trump got led in a world level event.

[pescetom]

apollo1201, on 2025-June-28, 11:37, said:

So either the leader is void or has the Q. Which does not help us decide.

You assume they are equally likely?

[johnu]

harikannan, on 2025-June-28, 05:48, said:

how should i play trumps? Any clues? Or just play for the drop?

Any clues? Yes, well maybe from the bidding, but you didn't give the bidding. And that's why you need to give the complete auction, whether you think it is important or not. There may be clues or negative inferences which may swing the odds.

[johnu]

As far as auto leading a trump against a grand, it depends on your hand. Even if opponents had a keycard Blackwood auction and showed AK of trump along with the queen, in general I still wouldn't lead a singleton trump if opponents could be on an 8 card trump fit in case it exposed partner's jack fourth. And if I had an auto lead sequence like QJ10 in a side suit I would probably make that lead. Leading from 3 small trump is safer than leading from 2 small trump, like in this example.

[mike777]

Fwiw I would simply bang down the AK of spades
Why?

You are in the wrong grand slam. In hearts you can go on a voyage of discovery for Spades

So you hope for the needed swing, you hope the discovery will be wrong.

[smerriman]

mike777, on 2025-June-28, 16:12, said:

You are in the wrong grand slam. In hearts you can go on a voyage of discovery for Spades

This assumes all others will be in the right one. Do you expect they'll all end in 7♥ after a 1♠ opener?

[mike777]

smerriman, on 2025-June-28, 18:53, said:

This assumes all others will be in the right one. Do you expect they'll all end in 7♥ after a 1♠ opener?

All others?
Teamgame

Also we are not told opening bid, but still, wrong grand.

[smerriman]

Oops, missed that. But same point still applies, unless they're playing some artificial system, I'm not sure I'd base on my line on them being in 7♥. More hopeful they found their spade fit in a standard way and stopped in 6, and want the best percentage line to make 7.

[harikannan]

johnu, on 2025-June-28, 15:33, said:

Any clues? Yes, well maybe from the bidding, but you didn't give the bidding. And that's why you need to give the complete auction, whether you think it is important or not. There may be clues or negative inferences which may swing the odds.

Sorry, the bidding was: 1S-2NT, 4H-4NT, 5H-6S, 7S-All pass.

[thepossum]

Do people know how long a distribution like 48 52 can take to converge

[WasWinM]

awm, on 2025-June-28, 11:35, said:

er
There is a (somewhat old-fashioned) rule to lead a trump vs. a grand slam. If opponents believe in this rule, it makes sense to play opening leader for the queen. Assuming you know nothing of the opponents, I think this makes the finesse a bit better than the drop (a priori the drop is better but it is very close).

If declarer accepts this hypothesis, then trick 1 should be won in hand and a low spade led to the A109 and finesse. If LHO shows out you have a 100% play.

[smerriman]

harikannan, on 2025-June-28, 23:13, said:

Sorry, the bidding was: 1S-2NT, 4H-4NT, 5H-6S, 7S-All pass.

Based on this auction, you could easily be losing trick 1 to an ace right? So definitely quite a gamble.

[harikannan]

smerriman, on 2025-June-29, 19:16, said:

Based on this auction, you could easily be losing trick 1 to an ace right? So definitely quite a gamble.

It surely was. That is why i initially didn't post the auction so that the discussion will stay on the best way to play trumps.
The opening leader held Q9x, but i played for drop. Now, i understand a finesse may be slightly better since trump was not led.

[smerriman]

harikannan, on 2025-June-29, 23:49, said:

It surely was. That is why i initially didn't post the auction so that the discussion will stay on the best way to play trumps.
The opening leader held Q9x, but i played for drop. Now, i understand a finesse may be slightly better since trump was not led.

But the auction is surely vital to that decision, since it will sound to the opponents like you're taking a big gamble as well. If they conclude you might be off an ace that needs to be found immediately, or the trump queen, that could definitely put them off leading a trump, compared to more sound auctions to grand.

[P_Marlowe]

harikannan, on 2025-June-29, 23:49, said:

It surely was. That is why i initially didn't post the auction so that the discussion will stay on the best way to play trumps.
The opening leader held Q9x, but i played for drop. Now, i understand a finesse may be slightly better since trump was not led.

But as was said as well, if someone has QJT in clubs, the Q is automatic, it would be for me, saying nothing about the trump suit.
Given that the Q was lead, you can assume this holding with the leader, and nothing else.
You could argue, that you now know 2 cards more in the leaders hand, than in the hand of his partner, and dues to this the odds, that
partner of the leader has the Q of trumps is 12/10 (6:5) based on empty spaces, if you draw another round of clubs, the prob changes to
11/10, if you get a count signal (which you may or may not believe), you can further adjust.

[Cyberyeti]

P_Marlowe, on 2025-June-30, 07:40, said:

But as was said as well, if someone has QJT in clubs, the Q is automatic, it would be for me, saying nothing about the trump suit.
Given that the Q was lead, you can assume this holding with the leader, and nothing else.
You could argue, that you now know 2 cards more in the leaders hand, than in the hand of his partner, and dues to this the odds, that
partner of the leader has the Q of trumps is 12/10 (6:5) based on empty spaces, if you draw another round of clubs, the prob changes to
11/10, if you get a count signal (which you may or may not believe), you can further adjust.

And of course if you play in hearts instead, you can probably ruff out the diamonds to see if anybody has 7