Posted 2024-July-17, 04:15
The Law of Total Tricks answer is, that it is ok to bid 3H with only 8 trumps, but not ok
to bid 3S with 8 trumps.
If you go to 3H with only 8, you have 16 total trumps in play, if they make 2S, you are -1
in 3H, if you make 3H, they are -1 in 2S.
If you push to 3S with only 8, you have 18 total trumps in play, you will be ok,
if they have a 9 card fit, but if they pressed on with 8 trumps, you have a violation
of -2, which is no longer ok.
...
For your specific hand:
You have 4333 distribution, a minus indicator with regards to Total Trumps, but max values,
and no wastage in their suit, which is a plus indicator with regards to Total Trumps.
I would not give up, ..., so it is either X or 3H, since you are on lead against a spade
contract (otherwise 3D as a lead director could be worth a second of consideration).
I would go with X, pretty risky (live by the sword / die by the sword ... and partner can
still remove it),but maybe 3D is better anyway, sometimes you catch partner with a max.,
and he was going low.
With kind regards
Uwe Gebhardt (P_Marlowe)