[AL78]

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MPs, second board in a club evening session. Your call?

[Tramticket]

Pass

Picture: KQJ10xxx xxx xx x opposite.

[Cyberyeti]

Tramticket, on 2024-June-05, 08:48, said:

Pass

Picture: KQJ10xxx xxx xx x opposite.

This is pretty much my view, yes once in a blue moon partner has KQJxxxx, Kx, 10xxx, void but thinking at least 500 off most of the time, yes it's just possible you should be doubling for 300, but 5♣ will make a fair bit of the time.

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

the first question to answer, did you bid 4S to make?
If you assume, South expects to go down -2, than you need 3 tricks to make,
I can count 2 1/2, which means 4S may make, but nobody knowes.
In my partner ship, South expects to go down only -1, due to vul. and position,
but this is not mainstream, i.e. I would have bid 4S with the intention of making,
the -2 assumption is (more) mainstream.

Being red means, they will score above game, if they doubled you and you are -2,
5S wont make, i.e. 5S is down, and you will only score +, if you are -1.

Hence bidding 5S is an offer to the opponents to get top score without risk.

The next question is, do you have defence against 5C?
You have 2 1/2 tricks, i.e. 5C may make, or not.
And if you double you will only gain 100 instead of 50, if they make game you may
have company, or someone had a present for you and double 5C on the other table.

In short, go low.

With kind regards
Marlowe

[mikeh]

I’ve gone back and forth, in my own mind, about this. I’m primarily an imp player and sometimes wrestle with the close mp decisions.

For example, I very much doubt that I’d have bid 4S. Not only would I consider KQJxxxx xxx x xx a normal, though minimum, 3S bid even at unfavourable, but I’d not be at all sure that I want to encourage east to give me a tough decision. He’ll often bid 5C over 4S when he’d pass 4C.

Now, knowing (which of course I’d not know at the table) that east will bid 5C, bidding 4S becomes attractive on its merits as a possibly making contract, either because he has the heart king or a club void, but that only begs the question of wtf am I doing over 5C?

5C could be cold….picture west with 3=3=1=6 and east with 1=4=4=4 or 1=4=5=3 and partner with either KQJxxxx xx xxx x or KQJxxxx xx xxxx void.

Obviously it’s a mug’s game to try to predict exact hands on this sort of auction, but it’s sensible to try to picture a range of plausible alternatives. Maybe east is 2=4=4=3, expecting a stiff spade for partner, given our bid of 4S, and we get two spades and a diamond or two.

So it’s a guess, but a guess that could reasonably have been foreseen, which is one of two reasons for not bidding 4S! The other is that we usually rate to be down a trick (probably ok since we’re not getting doubled very often) or two (bad if they weren’t bidding game).

At imps, 4S is easier in one sense….it rates to be a thin game, often with zero play, but the imp odds warrant bidding while imo the mp odds warrant passing. Of course, at imps we’d still be wrestling with what to do.

Me? I think I pass at both forms of scoring once they reach 5C. I’ll lead a spade since there’s little risk of setting up a spade winner for the opps and I can switch to diamonds next should dummy suggest it. In essence, I’m betting that any plus is a good plus or that beating them doubled will gain very little compared to beating them undoubled….if the field is in and making 4S, our score on defence is largely irrelevant to our mp score….and the same is true if 4S goes down. The only time when doubling is ‘good’ is when quite a few pairs reach 5C AND it fails.

Since we have no way of judging this….is 3S clear? Is 4C clear? How often will east bid 5C if I pass 4C? How often if I bid 4S?…im not going to assume that our table action will be the field action and that 5C goes down.

[P_Marlowe]

Tramticket, on 2024-June-05, 08:48, said:

Pass

Picture: KQJ10xxx xxx xx x opposite.

If I needed to picture this one, I would not have raised 3S to 4S.
Not saying 3S is bad, but if p was already on hyper speed, I dont need to push
the gas even more.

[apollo1201]

At red.vs green, partner should aim 7 trick on their own. Let s figure something like KQ to 7 and probably a side goodie.

Can we make 11 tricks? If the defense is highly cooperative and does not cash out or prefers establishing our D rather than their other tricks while still retaining their DA, yes. Otherwise no. 4S is a toss but 5S is a loss. And we will not play there for free.

Can we make 3 tricks? By myself I have 1S (0 on a bad day) and 1 or 2D. Add partner s goodie if they indeed have one and it it is a useful one, it becomes quite possible but not guaranteed that we can set them.

Bidding looks like signing for -200 and sometimes -500 vs +50 and sometimes -400. The likelihood of each case depending on style (opps and partner) and wildness of distributions around the table.

I will pass this one

[AL78]

I was interestedf to see if there were any advocates for anything other than pass. My thinking at the table:

4♠ by me was a bit dubious but at these colours partner can hold hands where it makes but also could hold hands where it goes for multiples of 100. I did not have the ability to calculate the win/lose probabilities of bidding vs passing so I guessed. If RHO hadn't overcalled I would have passed but the overcall increases the probability partner is short in clubs, since we have a nine card spade fit, the likelihood is EW have a similar fit in clubs.

I have no idea what might happen at the other tables and given there were only two of them it is pointless to speculate.

Once 5♣ came round to me I am thinking bidding 5♠ is giftwrapping the board for them, could easily go for 500 or even 800 on a bad day so let them have their club game. Maybe we can get them one off for a fair MP score. I passed 5♣, this was the full deal:

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We can get this four down but I slipped up somewhere and we only got +150 which was worth 50%, the other two NS pairs scoring +170 in 3♠ and -100 in 4♠. I can't remember the play other than I started with the ♠A followed by a switch to a top diamond (ducked) then another top diamond, partner discarding a spade. I cannot remember where the sixth defensive trick went, I wonder if one of us got endplayed.

The boards were played in the parallel online session which was a stronger field and three of them were in 3♠, one going down, one made 4♠ and the fifth pair went two down in 3♣.

[mikeh]

I doubt that 4C would get any support in a bidding contest with expert panelists. I think it a truly horrible action.

White v red, it’s ok to stretch a bit and west has the short spades so bidding is fine, but 4C is dreadful. Double stands out.

Sure, we’d all like to have 4 hearts and I’d pass in a flash with the same hcp and 2=2=4=5 shape, but 1=3=4=5 is good enough…if partner bids 4H, he’s taking the tap, if there is one, in the short trump hand, which is both important and good.

[apollo1201]

As Mikeh points out, with so lunatic opps, defeating 5C becomes even more likely (while at the same time it reduces even more our chances that 4S, let alone 5, is making)

I would X on a good day as W but it would then end in a bloodbath at 4mX or 3NTX.

[P_Marlowe]

The only really interesting question is, if after a T/O, North should make a power showing XX.
After that all bets are off with regards to end the contract. I dont think I have, what it
takes to make a pen on 4C.

[Tramticket]

P_Marlowe, on 2024-June-05, 11:29, said:

If I needed to picture this one, I would not have raised 3S to 4S.
Not saying 3S is bad, but if p was already on hyper speed, I dont need to push
the gas even more.

I think my example hand is a much sounder 3S opening than the actual hand - although the duplicated S10 might mean that my suggestion was unlikely. The broken spade suit in the actual hand is not great for a second-seat, vulnerable pre-empt and my hand has a much purer trumps with six certain tricks and little defence. I would be more reluctant to raise if I expected the hand from actual play!

[P_Marlowe]

Tramticket, on 2024-June-07, 05:46, said:

I think my example hand is a much sounder 3S opening than the actual hand - although the duplicated S10 might mean that my suggestion was unlikely. The broken spade suit in the actual hand is not great for a second-seat, vulnerable pre-empt and my hand has a much purer trumps with six certain tricks and little defence. I would be more reluctant to raise if I expected the hand from actual play!

I agree, your hand was better, but this just means, if I have to expect the actual hand, I would only pass faster.