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What is the best play for five tricks holding AK109xx opposite small singleton? I finessed losing to a doubleton honor, the worst case scenerio. Ok, singleton honor would be worse, but I thought I made the best play even though cashing both top honors is so tempting.
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best play? suit combo
#2
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Posted 2023-June-30, 12:08
Cashing the ace and king is the best line for 5 tricks. If the suit splits 3-3 either option works. Cashing AK additionally wins with Hx in either hand, while finessing only gains with QJxx (but not QJxxx(x)) in front of the AKT9xx.
The exact spot cards are required to tell if a singleton honour is really worse than a doubleton honour. If you do not have the 8 you also always lose two tricks to a singeton honour.
The exact spot cards are required to tell if a singleton honour is really worse than a doubleton honour. If you do not have the 8 you also always lose two tricks to a singeton honour.
#3
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Posted 2023-June-30, 13:06
DavidKok, on 2023-June-30, 12:08, said:
Cashing the ace and king is the best line for 5 tricks. If the suit splits 3-3 either option works. Cashing AK additionally wins with Hx in either hand, while finessing only gains with QJxx (but not QJxxx(x)) in front of the AKT9xx.
The exact spot cards are required to tell if a singleton honour is really worse than a doubleton honour. If you do not have the 8 you also always lose two tricks to a singeton honour.
The exact spot cards are required to tell if a singleton honour is really worse than a doubleton honour. If you do not have the 8 you also always lose two tricks to a singeton honour.
Does anyone have the percentages on these plays? Note that finessing will usually also gain when it is honor fourth offside.
#4
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Posted 2023-June-30, 13:22
Drop works better when offside:QJ, Qx (4), Jx (4).
Finesse works better when offside:xx (6)
So you are getting 5 on 2 more combos (~3.2%) and getting 6 instead of 5 on the one combo of QJ tight offside.
No it doesn't. Then honor doubleton is onside, your 2nd high card drops it, and you still have the T9 to drive out the other one, losing only one. You are breaking even on this one, not gaining, vs playing from the top.
Finesse works better when offside:xx (6)
So you are getting 5 on 2 more combos (~3.2%) and getting 6 instead of 5 on the one combo of QJ tight offside.
Quote
Note that finessing will usually also gain when it is honor fourth offside.
#5
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Posted 2023-June-30, 13:26
Stephen Tu, on 2023-June-30, 13:22, said:
Drop works better when offside:QJ, Qx (4), Jx (4).
Finesse works better when offside:xx (6)
So you are getting 5 on 2 more combos (~3.2%) and getting 6 instead of 5 on the one combo of QJ tight offside.
No it doesn't. Then honor doubleton is onside, your 2nd high card drops it, and you still have the T9 to drive out the other one, losing only one. You are breaking even on this one, not gaining, vs playing from the top.
Finesse works better when offside:xx (6)
So you are getting 5 on 2 more combos (~3.2%) and getting 6 instead of 5 on the one combo of QJ tight offside.
No it doesn't. Then honor doubleton is onside, your 2nd high card drops it, and you still have the T9 to drive out the other one, losing only one. You are breaking even on this one, not gaining, vs playing from the top.
thanks guys
#6
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Posted 2023-June-30, 13:31
jammen, on 2023-June-30, 13:06, said:
Does anyone have the percentages on these plays? Note that finessing will usually also gain when it is honor fourth offside.
In the absence of other information about the hand, SuitPlay claims that cashing AK has a 64.5963% chance to win 5 (or more) tricks, while finessing has a 61.3665% chance.
You're right that Hx onside breaks even, I overlooked that. Cashing AK gains the fifth trick with Hxxx onside (8 cases) and loses with QJxx onside (6 cases). Cashing AK also gains an extra trick with xxxx onside (1 case), Hxxxx onside (2 cases) and loses a trick with QJxxx(x) onside (5 cases), but in none of these it is the fifth trick that is won or lost.
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