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Trying to think about card and point counting

#1 User is offline   thepossum 

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Posted 2023-March-23, 05:18

Hi

Not sure how to formulate this question but it's about card counting and point counting.

Are there any well defined methods for tracking card counts and particularly high point counts

Is there an accepted minimum number of pieces of information to track to reach a reasonable level. For declarer say at the moment

I keep trying to formulate it but struggle and often end up just relying on the best I can remember

Number of cards in each suit remaining in each hand
Range of points in each hand
Etc

Simplistic thinking to me suggests you only need to track most information in one defence hand and then derive for the other

What is most efficient to progress

I always used to complicate things until I started just thinking about what is left
Eg probabilities
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#2 User is online   DavidKok 

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Posted 2023-March-23, 07:12

I track all 52 cards during play, and think this is a good level to aim for.

Personally I use a counting method where I keep track of sets of four numbers adding to 13. This counts the distribution of a suit, or the shape of a hand (I keep tabs on all, so that's 8 times a set of 4 numbers, if we include dummy and our own hand). For HCP I usually count right at the start when dummy comes down and keep track of the total points shown (and therefore remaining) throughout the deal. For example, if the auction goes 1NT-3NT by the opps, I have 9 HCP and dummy comes down with 10 I know partner has 4-6 HCP, and every time partner plays a picture card I deduct that from the counter.
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#3 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2023-March-23, 11:52

One cannot aspire to being an expert until one can remember, at least during the play, every card played by each player.

I’ve often read that one way to track distribution is by visualizing possible distributions in each suit. I’ve never been able to do that, but I am able to count, often inferentially, each opponent’s distribution. I track each opp’s shape rather than each suit’s distribution.

One needs also, and very importantly, to learn how to infer distribution. For example, after we bid 1N 3N and the opening lead is the spade 2, and we see say 2=2=5=4 in dummy and we hold 3=2=4=4, we already ‘know’, to varying levels of confidence, that RHO has 4 spades and at least 5 hearts.

As for tracking each card, it may seem challenging but practice, practice, practice. For example, while playing against robots can actively harm one’s ability to play real bridge,it does afford an excellent opportunity to practice counting and memory. Try to remember every bid and card and then, after the hand is over, review it

I suspect this is easier for someone much younger than most of us are these days…I developed this ability in my early 20’s and it’s almost unconscious now, at least if I’m playing with focus.

As for inferences, I haven’t played enough robot ‘bridge’ to discern GIB’s signalling algorithm so I find it impossible to draw many reliable inferences. Also, it’s often easier to draw inferences against good players than against weak ones. Weak players do strange things. I once made 6N after my LHO failed to cash the spade AK on opening lead (don’t ask about the bidding!). As it happened, she was squeezed into either stiffing a king behind my AQ or stiffing a spade honour, choosing the latter and then getting endplayed. My point being that the drawing of inferences relies upon being able to trust that the opponents know how to play.

Summarizing: there is no substitute for practice but it’s easy, if a bit boring, to do the practice

Btw, the notion of trying to ‘count’ how many things to track doesn’t resonate with me. You track everything, else you’re never going to be able to play at an expert level. Again, practice, practice and practice.

As for what one does with the information, that varies. On opening lead I review the auction and am usually able to make a few tentative inferences about shape and strength, which can help with the lead.

Dummy hits, then as the opening leader I revisit my inferences, tentatively or sometimes firmly forming more refined inferences. As partner of the opening leader, I review the auction, consider our leading practices, consider dummy and draw inferences, which may be revised depending on what declarer plays from dummy.

I’m not constantly updating my inferences, at least not on most hands. If somebody makes a play inconsistent with my current visualization, then I go back to the start and revisit everything in light of this unexpected play.

Most hands afford only a few and sometimes no decision points. 3N where the defence cashes 4 tricks and we have nine winners….nothing to think about here. More often, as declarrr or defender there will be one or two points where our play is critical.

Often we need to plan for that moment ahead. For example, you hold Kx in a suit sitting behind declarer in a suit contract. Dummy has Jxx(x), and we can tentatively or firmly place the ace in declarer’s hand. If there is any chance that declarer can eliminate the other side suits,with trump remaining in both hands, we should be able to see this, based on our earlier reviews and inferences.

If declarer, early on, plays the Ace, what do we do? Unless the auction has told declarer that we likely hold the king, we can infer that he probably doesn’t hold AQ…he would usually finesse. So we dump the King…hoping partner, who ‘should’ hold the Q, also holds the 10.

More commonly, the decision point is ‘what to pitch as declarer runs a suit’ or ‘what switch to make’. Those decisions often don’t need to be anticipated (although it’s a good habit to try to anticipate them) and then at the decision point, one can take time to revisit everything…

But of course you can’t revisit everything unless you remember everything! So…practice, practice and practice some more.

Bridge gives back what you put into it. I’ve know some ‘savant’ type players but most experts became experts the old-fashioned way….practice

By the way, if you can find a copy of Lawrence’s how to read the opponents’ cards. ( I think that’s the title) buy it. It’s a great introduction to how to think at the table
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari
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#4 User is offline   akwoo 

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Posted 2023-March-23, 14:26

Sorry, but I think we just got two of the most true but useless replies to this inquiry.

I'm a decent player, though by no means expert, and there is no way in hell I manage to track every card.

First - there is no threshold here. The more you manage to track the better your results will be. There's no accepted minimum. Every extra bit counts.

I'm going to focus on defense, because, a lot of the time, declarer play is about covering all the likely possibilities rather than trying to figure out the actual lay of the cards. Also, declarers tend to have less information from the bidding.

When declarer's point range is known to within 2 or 3 points, the most important thing is to track partner's points - I find this easier than tracking declarer's points, because you're usually more focused on what partner can have, and also you're usually dealing with a smaller number that way.

The next thing to try to track is declarer's shape.

Two clues about what to remember: first, it's usually easier to keep track of what's left rather than keep track of every card including the ones you see.

Second, convert data into information as soon as possible. Hence, when your partner gives you a count signal, immediately (if you can) remember whether partner has an even or odd number, and if you have good clues from the bidding, the exact number in that suit. Figure out right then how many cards declarer has in that suit. Don't try to remember the exact card partner played to figure this out later (though sometimes you have to because the meaning of the signal is unclear at that point.)
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#5 User is offline   jillybean 

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Posted 2023-March-23, 15:08

As you know, I'm not an expert but I would like to add to this; Stop, think, plan, replan.

I see many players start the play immediately after dummy is down, especially if there is a singleton to play.
Some partners help hurry this along by putting the stiff led at the top of the table, the opponents hurry you along with sighs and glances at their watch.

I never run out of time on a board, I do need to discipline myself to take time.
"And no matter what methods you play, it is essential, for anyone aspiring to learn to be a good player, to learn the importance of bidding shape properly." MikeH
(still learning)
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#6 User is offline   thepossum 

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Posted 2023-March-23, 16:31

Thx everyone

Sometimes I feel I am better at keeping track than others - keeping track of all suit counts and trying to picture each defender's hand
- maybe the nature of some hands or just state of mind

Are there playing techniques that people use to make that process easier - I know getting rid of losers early is generally a good tactic anyway but also helps with counting what's left

When I was talking about amounts of information or counters to keep track of I was thinking along the lines of being able to let some information go as you progress :)

I think I have managed to improve distributional tracking - I used to be overwhelmed thinking of probabilities of bad distributions - but every round of cards simplifies that as you go

I know the beginning after dummy is laid down is when you are generally permitted most time to think and plan - but maybe you can set things up during the bidding - set aside some memory space and registers

I will try to track down the book by Lawrence thanks - $10 on my Kindle :)
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#7 User is offline   AL78 

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Posted 2023-March-23, 17:02

I cannot track every card although I do make an effort to work out HCP and distribution of the unseen hands as soon as dummy goes down. When dummy comes down you can usually work out what HCP partner has got from dummy and the opponent's bidding even if partner has been silent (and if he has been silent you can deduce what he doesn't have). During the play you can often deduce where partner's HCP or certain key cards are by the way declarer is playing the hand.

As an example, once when I was defending a 3NT contract, partner led a fourth best club and we knocked out declarer's single stop. I held Kx and dummy held AJT9x. Declarer played on diamonds and spades and I got put on lead somewhere around trick eight. I knew partner had 2-3 HCP left and winning clubs so I considered why declarer hadn't touched the heart suit during the play. I deduced that if declarer held the queen or jack they would have gone for a double finesse so I deduced partner held both those cards and I played my king. Declarer ducked and I played another heart which locked declarer in dummy. All declarer could do was cash another winner in dummy before putting partner in with his J and he cashed his clubs for one down.
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#8 User is online   DavidKok 

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Posted 2023-March-23, 17:06

I don't count what's left. When I try to visualise the hands it's always the set of 13 cards they started with. Perhaps counting the remainder is easier, I found it to be much more difficult to integrate with other information.

RHO shows out on the second round of clubs. What does this say about LHO's heart length? Personally I find it easiest to keep track of the initial shapes, and draw the inferences from there.


Edit: I forgot to add the most important parts. Take it one step at a time, and slow down. Don't rush, try to make any inferences you can about suit distribution or partner's (remaining) HCP. It will be slow at first, but it does get easier with practice. If the opponents (including the middle opponent) are trying to rush you either politely remind them that there's plenty of time on the clock, or mark the hand for later study.
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#9 User is offline   thepossum 

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Posted 2023-March-23, 17:32

All I meant in relation to updating was in relation to probabilities on distributions which change with each round - along those lines - rather than still thinking of the original unlikely extremes :)
Its simpler for my limited brain power

If there are only 3 cards left in a suit with opps its easier to work out than if opps have 9 :)

And the probabilities of dropping versus finessing change as time goes on - things like that

I have spent my whole life having to use the strengths of what brain power/capacity I have or do not have
- I excelled(?) in subjects or disciplines that didn't require much memory and could be worked out as I went :)
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#10 User is online   pescetom 

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Posted 2023-March-26, 15:36

View Postjillybean, on 2023-March-23, 15:08, said:

Some partners help hurry this along by putting the stiff led at the top of the table, the opponents hurry you along with sighs and glances at their watch.

I assume you mean the stiff following suit to the lead... my partners get to try this once ("I have not played, partner please put that card back in place").
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