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lead problem 2

#1 User is offline   AL78 

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Posted 2021-October-08, 05:11

Matchpoints against the same decent club pair:



1NT is 15-17. Do you lead partner's suit or top of your sequence?
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#2 User is offline   LBengtsson 

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Posted 2021-October-08, 07:52

little or no chance of ruff with doubleton , also partner is under strong no trump bidder so lead may give tempo. safe lead K. set up a trick or tricks quickly.
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#3 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2021-October-08, 08:14


AL78 'Matchpoints against the same decent club pair: 1NT is 15-17. Do you lead partner's suit or top of your sequence?
++++++++++++++++++++++++
I rank
1. K with a partner who expects you to exercise judgement.
2. 9 With an "I bid 'em, you lead 'em" partner -- who will be upset if a lead would have worked -- and his mantra of complaint is likely to wreck your game and his.
3. T.
4. J.


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#4 User is offline   Douglas43 

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Posted 2021-October-08, 09:25

Very close.
Partner has bid 2 vulnerable so should have serious spades. At most we have two spade tricks. If partner has AK and the suit is 6-3-2-2 and the doubleton is on my right, a third spade might promote a trump trick for us. As against that, if partner only has AQJ we could lose a a diamond trick (say dummy has only one spade and declarer has the king).
I'm normally a "You bid 'em, I'm leading 'em" player, but on this occasion, it's K from me.
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#5 User is offline   AL78 

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Posted 2021-October-08, 11:31

The full layout:



I thought about this and struggled to decide between the two most viable options, and eventually decided to lead my top spade, on the basis that whatever lead I choose, if it goes wrong and the other one would have worked, I won't lose the post-mortem.

I didn't lose the post-mortem and my lead was wrong. Declarer wins, starts ruffing spades in dummy. I ruff in on the third round (not realising I was ruffing with a natural trump trick) and played my top diamond. Too late, declarer drew trumps in two rounds and because the clubs are 3-3, the diamond loser went away on the 3. 4+2 was a bottom, everyone else led the diamond. Cards lie perfectly for declarer and for maximum punishment for finding the wrong lead.
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