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Any Action?

#21 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2021-October-01, 17:46

View PostWinstonm, on 2021-October-01, 17:12, said:

I’m sorry but what you are saying is that partner should know based on his flat 8 count with a defensive trick that your
double means you want to sacrifice in your 7-card suit that you didn’t bid? Seems a bit of a stretch doesn’t it?

If partner has a flat 8-count with a trump trick we will probably beat it. Axx Kxx xxxx xxx is one off on a SIM 81% of the time. We play 4NT as a two-suited takeout, minors or reds in principle. If my partner had LHOs hand on the actual deal xxx AKJx Jxxxx x, then 5C would not be a great success. Partner should bid 4NT on this and pull 5C to 5D.

It is quite hard to do a simulation, but Pass will almost always end the auction. It would have here, and would have lost 13 IMPs. 5C works well on the hand but badly when partner has a 5-card red suit and a stiff club. And works badly when partner has a defensive hand. Double works badly when partner passes with a balanced hand and we cannot beat it as there is likely to be a cheap save. I was quite happy when partner passed, but neither of us were when he tried to cash the AC and it was ruffed!
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#22 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2021-October-01, 18:06

View Postlamford, on 2021-October-01, 17:46, said:

If partner has a flat 8-count with a trump trick we will probably beat it. Axx Kxx xxxx xxx is one off on a SIM 81% of the time. We play 4NT as a two-suited takeout, minors or reds in principle. If my partner had LHOs hand on the actual deal xxx AKJx Jxxxx x, then 5C would not be a great success. Partner should bid 4NT on this and pull 5C to 5D.

It is quite hard to do a simulation, but Pass will almost always end the auction. It would have here, and would have lost 13 IMPs. 5C works well on the hand but badly when partner has a 5-card red suit and a stiff club. And works badly when partner has a defensive hand. Double works badly when partner passes with a balanced hand and we cannot beat it as there is likely to be a cheap save. I was quite happy when partner passed, but neither of us were when he tried to cash the AC and it was ruffed!

Itís hard to be objective when reasonable actions lose 13 imps. I think youíre allowing the result to influence your thinking.

Say you held xx AKxx AKxx Jxx

A reasonable double of 4S, right?

Your partner, with his Kxx xxx Qx AKQ10x should pass and declarer is down at least 500 against your 400.

Give you xx AKJx AJxx Jxx, a borderline double but one I think most would make, and now 5C rates to go down because the diamond king is likely offside, but they are almost surely down 500-800.

The problem with simulating this hand is that you cannot simulate partnerís action over anything you do with this handÖ.your partner is going to act as if you had a typical double or overcall. When you allow, consciously or unconsciously, your knowledge of this hand, and generate, say, 100 hands for partner, itís impossible to be objective about what he should do.

Your view that with what looks like a minimum of two defensive tricks he should pull a double is, with respect, silly.

Now, if you were red v white, thereís an argument that collecting 500 might lose imps, but at favourable, itís silly for him to play you for extreme length anywhere, or for very little defence.
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari
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#23 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2021-October-01, 18:13

View Postmikeh, on 2021-October-01, 18:06, said:

Itís hard to be objective when reasonable actions lose 13 imps. I think youíre allowing the result to influence your thinking.

Say you held xx AKxx AKxx Jxx

A reasonable double of 4S, right?

Your partner, with his Kxx xxx Qx AKQ10x should pass and declarer is down at least 500 against your 400.

Give you xx AKJx AJxx Jxx, a borderline double but one I think most would make, and now 5C rates to go down because the diamond king is likely offside, but they are almost surely down 500-800.

The problem with simulating this hand is that you cannot simulate partnerís action over anything you do with this handÖ.your partner is going to act as if you had a typical double or overcall. When you allow, consciously or unconsciously, your knowledge of this hand, and generate, say, 100 hands for partner, itís impossible to be objective about what he should do.

Your view that with what looks like a minimum of two defensive tricks he should pull a double is, with respect, silly.

Now, if you were red v white, thereís an argument that collecting 500 might lose imps, but at favourable, itís silly for him to play you for extreme length anywhere, or for very little defence.

I agree with much of this but my partner also was influenced by the result in criticising my double. And the majority of our squad in the Intercities Teams disagreed with it as well. Yes, my partner might well play me for a 2-4-4-3 14-count. He will also consider that I might have a stiff spade, or sometimes a void. I don't think two defensive tricks is abnormal for a double and if it makes then we are not much worse off than if I passed. only 2 IMPs on the hand. I pretty much know that "All Pass" is a bad result.
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#24 User is online   smerriman 

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Posted 2021-October-01, 19:37

View Postpescetom, on 2021-October-01, 15:11, said:

It would be interesting to know if you are right.

Unfortunately ...

You really should learn to use Thomas Andrews' Deal. It's basically the same idea, but once you're used to it, you can do everything dealer can and much more. If the syntax is too complex, and you post a few examples of dealer scripts you use, I'm sure I or someone else can convert it to the TCL format, after which you just can copy and paste and adjust bits as you need.
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#25 User is offline   AL78 

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Posted 2021-October-02, 01:34

View Postpescetom, on 2021-October-01, 15:11, said:

It would be interesting to know if you are right.

Unfortunately ...


502 bad gateway.
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#26 User is offline   pilowsky 

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Posted 2021-October-02, 03:23

View PostAL78, on 2021-October-02, 01:34, said:

502 bad gateway.


I think that's the point.
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#27 User is offline   DavidKok 

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Posted 2021-October-02, 03:49

View Postlamford, on 2021-October-01, 14:01, said:

We are reaching 4Sx quite often after double. On the actual hand partner had Kxx xxx Qx AKQTx [...]

The other South bid 5C on my hand, which made. That was also better than Pass.
I struggle to follow North's line of thinking. Their partner bid a voluntary 5 over 4, presumably to make, hitting our AKQTx. We even have a side king and some extras in the form of Qx in diamonds. There is no way I am not raising.
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#28 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2021-October-02, 05:04

View PostDavidKok, on 2021-October-02, 03:49, said:

I struggle to follow North's line of thinking. Their partner bid a voluntary 5 over 4, presumably to make, hitting our AKQTx. We even have a side king and some extras in the form of Qx in diamonds. There is no way I am not raising.

That was my thought exactly, and was one of the reasons that I did not bid 5C. If it makes, it will be raised!
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#29 User is offline   Evies Dad 

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Posted 2021-October-02, 07:00

Isn't making 5C unimportant here? The main concern is not to let them make 4S vul.
You are betting some contract down 1 or 2 against the likelihood that 4S makes.
Once in a while pard raises to 6C and it makes anyway.

Swap the other two hands around and what is the least worst outcome?
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#30 User is offline   Winstonm 

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Posted 2021-October-02, 09:53

View PostEvies Dad, on 2021-October-02, 07:00, said:

Isn't making 5C unimportant here? The main concern is not to let them make 4S vul.
You are betting some contract down 1 or 2 against the likelihood that 4S makes.
Once in a while pard raises to 6C and it makes anyway.

Swap the other two hands around and what is the least worst outcome?


I donít understand the preoccupation with 4S making when holding a hand more defensive than offensive and holding a void suggesting a bad rather than good break in trumps.

Sure, we want to find a cheap sacrifice against a making game but there is no strong reason to believe they have not already overbid.

The worst mistake to me would be turning +100 into -300 or -500.
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#31 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2021-October-02, 14:10

View PostEvies Dad, on 2021-October-02, 07:00, said:

Isn't making 5C unimportant here? The main concern is not to let them make 4S vul.
You are betting some contract down 1 or 2 against the likelihood that 4S makes.
Once in a while pard raises to 6C and it makes anyway.

Swap the other two hands around and what is the least worst outcome?

Even at unfavourable, no good player opens 4S with the expectation of making the contract. One hopes that partner’s hand meshes well, in which case we’ll make…or even make slam…but the 4S opening is a preempt, usually expecting to take about 8 tricks, at this vulnerability, although some good players may be a little more aggressive even at unfavourable.

Bidding over a preempt is actually more constructive. One does not make a direct seat overcall as a sacrifice but, hoping for some help from partner, primarily in the hope of a plus.

Obviously, when the bidding starts this high, any overcall entails some risk but nevertheless one is aiming to reach a decent contract.

This is the main reason I do not like 5C. As I and others have pointed out, partner will expect an entirely different hand, whether I double or bid 5C. Bridge is a partnership game. There are times when one has to suppress the urge to do something simply because partner will and should act based on what you should have for your bid.

That’s why, for example, if you pick up KQJ10xxx in spades and out, and RHO deals and opens a weak 2H, one cannot bid 3S even though that would be obvious had rho opened 1H. Over 2H, 3S shows a GOOD hand and suit and partner will act accordingly.

Here, 5C shows a better suit than J high….and more tricks than we expect to take opposite a random dummy.

And double shows an entirely different sort of hand…more defence and less shape.

Hence pass is the disciplined action.

Bear in mind that bridge is all about probabilities. There are always times when the correct action loses, and a bad action wins. It can be very difficult to avoid the trap of reasoning: this action worked, therefore it was the correct action, and its corollary: this action led to a poor result, therefore it was a poor action.

Watch the best pairs in the world. Even those who are hyper-aggressive remain disciplined. Discipline is not the same as conservatism. One can play very aggressively and still be very disciplined…discipline is staying within one’s methods and style such that your hands will not be an unpleasant surprise to partner should he act in reliance upon your action.
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#32 User is offline   nullve 

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Posted 2021-October-02, 15:00

View Postmikeh, on 2021-October-02, 14:10, said:

Here, 5C shows a better suit than J high




etc.
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#33 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2021-October-02, 15:05

View PostWinstonm, on 2021-October-02, 09:53, said:

The worst mistake to me would be turning +100 into -300 or -500.

The worst mistake to me would be turning -50 into -620 or -790
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#34 User is offline   Winstonm 

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Posted 2021-October-02, 16:55

View Postlamford, on 2021-October-02, 15:05, said:

The worst mistake to me would be turning -50 into -620 or -790


I still donít understand - based on your hand alone - why you think 4S is a cinch to make.
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