[mw64ahw]

1NT 15-18 may have ♠ stop

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[DavidKok]

Pass and Pass.

[nullve]

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[mw64ahw]

nullve, on 2021-August-19, 05:28, said:

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East will bid 2♣ over a pass by North

[nullve]

mw64ahw, on 2021-August-19, 05:55, said:

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East will bid 2♣ over a pass by North

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X of 2♣ is takeout

[nige1]

nullve 'X of 2♣ is takeout'
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Nullve's auction seems sensible

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[mw64ahw]

I wondered if anyone would look at playing in a 7 card fit given North's hand was distributional very strong

Both 1NT & 2♣ go down 3 while NS can make game in any suit, but ♣

[mikeh]

I’m with David

When I read the thread title I was expecting to see a strong hand with good distributional values. I’m still looking.

4441 hands play poorly in most cases: they tend not to play as well as whatever the hcp status suggests. North, with 5440, isn’t far off from 4441, and the bidding suggests that the spade suit is going to underperform….the Qx in partner’s hand is an improbable holding on the auction.

I have no idea why anyone sitting North expects to beat 1N often enough to warrant what is a penalty oriented double. Heck, even if east has only one spade stopper….and what clue do we have that tells us he doesn’t have QJxx…..we are still looking at only 6 tricks in our hand, and that assumes they can’t run 6 club tricks.

[mw64ahw]

Its an Intermediate hand with a 3.5ish MLT so I class as distributionally very strong

After the 2nd X by North as takeout is there anyway you would just bid game following South's response or is there a series of bids that can take it further?

Three 7 card fits must be worth something

[sfi]

mw64ahw, on 2021-August-19, 09:32, said:

After the 2nd X by North as takeout is there anyway you would just bid game following South's response or is there a series of bids that can take it further?

Three 7 card fits must be worth something

7 card fits are pretty good on defence. I see no auction with two doubles by North that leads to anything but defending a doubled contract - South isn't going to respond to a takeout double of clubs.

[mikeh]

mw64ahw, on 2021-August-19, 09:32, said:

Its an Intermediate hand with a 3.5ish MLT so I class as distributionally very strong

After the 2nd X by North as takeout is there anyway you would just bid game following South's response or is there a series of bids that can take it further?

Three 7 card fits must be worth something

You and I don’t play the same game. Or we don’t speak the same language. Or both

Make south’s hand xx Jxx xxx Jxxxx. Is there any reason he doesn’t hold something like that, or worse?

As it is, having hit partner with an incredibly good hand, I’d expect the next problem for north would be what do after south doubles 2C

South has the worlds most obvious double, if only because he would be expecting a stronger hand for the double of 1N.

Btw, using (I infer) a ‘modified losing trick count’ to conclude that north has a very strong distributional hand is weird.

I use LTC as a minor factor when deciding whether to open, but basically never thereafter (because the auction will provide much more useful information as to the mesh of the cards). And on this sort of shape, what I’m looking for, in terms of how I view the hand as the auction unfolds, is information about shape and strength around the table.

If south could show length in a red suit, the north hand becomes extremely strong.

Picture south as xx Qxxxx Kx xxxx. Our hand is huge in support of hearts.

Picture south as xx xxx xxx KQxxx. Our hand is a piece of crap offensively. Yet you apparently don’t care. To you, utterly ignorant of partner’s hand, this north hand is ‘very strong’ distributionally.

Note that on my first example 5 count (south’s expected count is around 4-5), 4H is pretty good, while we rate to make nothing opposite th a second, and rate not to defeat 1N either….even if spades break, the double might talk south into a disastrous club lead.

Not that any of that would affect my results….unless feeling very optimistic, I’m defending 1N on the lead if the spade Queen. If feeling very optimistic, or needing a top at mps, I’m defending 2C doubled (unless I’m playing with your partner, who somehow didn’t see the double card in his bidding box after east bid 2C).

[mikl_plkcc]

For me I won't double at North.

The bidding will likely go 2C - 2D - 2S (2-card support) - // as no fit exists.

[mw64ahw]

mikeh, on 2021-August-19, 10:41, said:

You and I don’t play the same game. Or we don’t speak the same language. Or both

This may well be the case.

I'm approaching Bridge from an AI perspective looking for a set of guidance/constraints that can be programmed and built on by an artificial machine, rather than a traditional view. These start with basic hand classifications e.g. Intermediate balanced 15-17hcp. To these I add classifications based on a combination of hcp & MLT etc. Hence I come up with terms that may not be main road.

I have revisited past posts on MLT
https://www.bridgeba...ng-trick-count/
I had restricted the machine to making certain MLT decisions given an 8 card fit only, but the post suggests a downward adjustment for 7 card fits. This may make some sense as I seem to remember that 7NT/'grand's can be predicted fairly well without an 8 card fit. I will have to run some simulations and get the machine learning further.I

Back to the hand.
With West running I can infer a weak hand 3 hcp or 4 with no QT, so this leaves South's hand with some value. After 2♣ by East, North
a) passes with ♣ and ♠
b) bids the 2nd suit when 2-suited
c) X for takeout when 3-suited which will likely infer a ♣ void.

South now has a choice with North's X implying 15+ hcp.

Does South now bid 3/4!S given the Q♠ based on a 7 card fit and a downgraded North MLT which would still be sufficient?

I guess I will have to run some simulations to determine whether this hypothesis works or whether the hand is an aberration.

[DavidKok]

The question is not what South should do over the double of 2♣. With 7 great points and a 5-card suit sitting is the only call. The problem is that North is bidding on hot air, and the initial double of 1NT is very adventurous. The MLT is also not a great tool for estimating defensive values, since it is based on maintaining trump control so that shortness also means the suit is guarded. On defence you typically do not have control over the trump suit.