[haka9]

Bidding with partner first: 1 ♠ - p - 2 ♦ - p- 5 ♦ - passout.

King of ♠ lead, low ♥ next and you see:

QJ9xx
xx
KJx
AQx

and

xx
AKxx
A10xxxx
x

You take ♥ and now what?

[Tramticket]

Are the two hands partnering each other? I don't understand the bidding.

[trolley813]

I would try to draw trumps with ♦A and ♦K ("eight ever, nine never", hoping for 2-2), then cash the ♣A, ruff a low club and lead a low spade to the jack. If West attacked with the ♠K he/she must definitely have the ace, so your QJ9 in spades are likely to take at least 2 tricks (unless it's some weird distribution).

So, 6 diamond tricks (if trumps are 2-2), 2 spades, 1 club and 2 hearts, totaling 11. Since there's 2 quick losers in spades, it's the limit.

P.S. Of course, you may try to ruff a heart, but this can be risky too (if hearts are lying 5-2 or even 6-1, defenders can overruff).

[apollo1201]

Was partner aware you could have

Kxx
AQx
Axxx
xxx

Now he went mad, we have to decide the best between CK onside, risk of S overrun, or who has 3 H and who has 4 - and gasp if they are 52...

Knowing the small cards that were played and signaling methods might help.

The SK lead and H switch are suspicious.

Based on the feelings at the table, I’d play a small S to see. Or immediately embark into H, H ruff, C, C ruff, H and advise if LHO follows.

[Cyberyeti]

trolley813, on 2020-October-18, 13:04, said:

I would try to draw trumps with ♦A and ♦K ("eight ever, nine never", hoping for 2-2), then cash the ♣A, ruff a low club and lead a low spade to the jack. If West attacked with the ♠K he/she must definitely have the ace, so your QJ9 in spades are likely to take at least 2 tricks (unless it's some weird distribution).

So, 6 diamond tricks (if trumps are 2-2), 2 spades, 1 club and 2 hearts, totaling 11. Since there's 2 quick losers in spades, it's the limit.

P.S. Of course, you may try to ruff a heart, but this can be risky too (if hearts are lying 5-2 or even 6-1, defenders can overruff).

And you go way down if trumps are not 2-2 as the spade suit is now dead, playing clubs and removing your entry is berserk

[AL78]

Cyberyeti, on 2020-October-18, 13:12, said:

And you go way down if trumps are not 2-2 as the spade suit is now dead, playing clubs and removing your entry is berserk

Yes that was my thought. I'd play two rounds of diamonds, if they are 3-1 stiff Q play a third round, then play a spade to dummy (heart back to hand if necessary first). It seems to come down to guessing the diamonds, but I can't see much to go on other than to wonder whether the SK lead followed by a heart switch suggests anything about the defender's distributions.

[trolley813]

Cyberyeti, on 2020-October-18, 13:12, said:

And you go way down if trumps are not 2-2 as the spade suit is now dead, playing clubs and removing your entry is berserk

Thanks, my fault. Cashing the king first, then the ace (in trumps), so the lead will be in right hand (South). Of course, one may try to finesse the queen, but I'm unsure what is better from the view of probability theory (since East-West have passed all the time, we know little about their suit distribution).

[trolley813]

I've done some calculation and found that the cashing ace and king of diamonds gives slightly more chance (about 53.1%) of success than trying to finesse (about 45.2%, but the latter figure depends on the rank of the North's diamonds spot card). It was done with the assumption that the first method succeeds when trumps are either 2-2 or 3-1 with a singleton queen, and the second one succeeds when trumps are 2-2 or 3-1, and the queen is with West (when trumps are 4-0 with West, and he/she has at least 3 diamonds higher than the North's lowest diamond (e.g. Q762 vs. KJ5), the finesse will fail).

[johnu]

AL78, on 2020-October-18, 13:20, said:

Yes that was my thought. I'd play two rounds of diamonds, if they are 3-1 stiff Q play a third round, then play a spade to dummy (heart back to hand if necessary first). It seems to come down to guessing the diamonds, but I can't see much to go on other than to wonder whether the SK lead followed by a heart switch suggests anything about the defender's distributions.

One of your top heart honors was played at trick 2. If you play another heart for transportation, you set up heart losers in your hand that can be cashed when you play a spade.

[Cyberyeti]

AL78, on 2020-October-18, 13:20, said:

Yes that was my thought. I'd play two rounds of diamonds, if they are 3-1 stiff Q play a third round, then play a spade to dummy (heart back to hand if necessary first). It seems to come down to guessing the diamonds, but I can't see much to go on other than to wonder whether the SK lead followed by a heart switch suggests anything about the defender's distributions.

I'd look at what their AK leads are, I'm suspecting K stiff or AK stiff.

One possibility is to guess which of those 2 is happening, cash ♦KA, if the Q is ourstanding, hook the club, pitch a spade on the A and then decide whether to take the ruffing finesse or ruff out the A, you will then ruff one heart and dispose of the other on a spade.

Stiff Q you don't play a 3rd round, you lead a spade, they can't hurt you unless the lead is from AK10xx, if E plays another spade you will ruff with the 10.

[Tir_na_nog]

trolley813, on 2020-October-18, 13:04, said:

I would try to draw trumps with ♦A and ♦K ("eight ever, nine never", hoping for 2-2), then cash the ♣A, ruff a low club and lead a low spade to the jack. If West attacked with the ♠K he/she must definitely have the ace, so your QJ9 in spades are likely to take at least 2 tricks (unless it's some weird distribution).

So, 6 diamond tricks (if trumps are 2-2), 2 spades, 1 club and 2 hearts, totaling 11. Since there's 2 quick losers in spades, it's the limit.

P.S. Of course, you may try to ruff a heart, but this can be risky too (if hearts are lying 5-2 or even 6-1, defenders can overruff).

8 Ever, 9 never.......I have not heard that saying before. What does it mean?

[AL78]

Tir_na_nog, on 2020-October-19, 07:00, said:

8 Ever, 9 never.......I have not heard that saying before. What does it mean?

It refers to the best line to take when you need to pick up the queen with an eight or nine card fit.

If you have an eight card fit missing the queen, the odds favour taking a finesse.
If you have a nine card fit missing the queen, the odds favour playing AK, trying to drop the queen.

The "ever" and "never" refers to playing for the finesse instead of the drop.

This saying assumes you have no other information about the opposing hands, so if one opponent has made a pre-emptive opening, you might prefer to play their partner for Qxx(x) instead of trying to drop the queen.

[nige1]

haka9s' problem
+++++++++++++++++++++
IMO,
5♦ is premature. South has 3 more ♦s than he promised but 3N still seems a superior contract.
After winning ♥A, Declarer should cash ♦K because if East has 4 ♦s, then he can probably pick them up. If both follow then ♦A and ♠x. If West was dealt ♠AK, as is probable, then the contract makes.
- If West rises ♠A, then the ♠QJ are tricks.
- If West ducks and East shows out, then declarer can ruff a ♥ in dummy.

---

[Huibertus]

I'd play a ♠ first. If W wins and continues a Spade at least I can overruff whatever E ruffs with without losing a trump trick later on and will play the remaining ♦ to be 2-1. If W is void of ♠ hé is not going to ruff this loser, and will play him for any 3 ♦ later on, planning to discard two ♥ on a ♣ and a ♠ after drawing trumps. If W has another ♠ and E the Ace, Ruffing the 3rd round with the Ace and plan to pick up the Q 3rd of ♦ by pinning the 9 still needing the ♣ finess later on for a ♥ discard.

BtW I strongly disagree with 5♦. This is a perfectly normal 3♦ rebid if 2♦ promisses 5, if it promisses 4 this is a 2♠ rebid.

[Huibertus]

AL78, on 2020-October-18, 13:20, said:

...but I can't see much to go on other than to wonder whether the SK lead followed by a heart switch suggests anything about the defender's distributions.

Well, the point of the hand to me is to make yourself stop wondering. W had a singleton K, maybe KX (less likely) or AKXXX. And you need to find out who is short in order to work out who is likely longer in ♦, my guess is W has singleton K, but it cannot harm to test as the number of reds in each suit in dummy make it quite unlikely you can ruff two ♥ without losing a trump so it looks like you need a spade trick anyway and W ruffing your loser won't harm.

[Cyberyeti]

Huibertus, on 2020-October-19, 11:13, said:

Well, the point of the hand to me is to make yourself stop wondering. W had a singleton K, maybe KX (less likely) or AKXXX. And you need to find out who is short in order to work out who is likely longer in ♦, my guess is W has singleton K, but it cannot harm to test as the number of reds in each suit in dummy make it quite unlikely you can ruff two ♥ without losing a trump so it looks like you need a spade trick anyway and W ruffing your loser won't harm.

K is not uncommon from AK tight.

[Huibertus]

Cyberyeti, on 2020-October-19, 12:02, said:

K is not uncommon from AK tight.

Hence the "or AKXXX" in my reply.

[Cyberyeti]

Huibertus, on 2020-October-19, 12:21, said:

Hence the "or AKXXX" in my reply.

Sorry, AKxxx is AK to 5, I'm ta;king about AK doubleton, AK(xxx) or AK(x)(x)(x)is AK to 2 or 3 or 4 or 5

[Huibertus]

Cyberyeti, on 2020-October-19, 13:33, said:

Sorry, AKxxx is AK to 5, I'm ta;king about AK doubleton, AK(xxx) or AK(x)(x)(x)is AK to 2 or 3 or 4 or 5

Ok, well, that doesn't change anything about what I wrote. w whould have no choice but to take the second, setting up 2 ♠ for heart discards, You'll see E has more then a singleton ♠, so now it seems to make sense to play for ♦ 2-2 or drop of the Q, and there no longer is a need for a ♣ finess.

[Cyberyeti]

Huibertus, on 2020-October-20, 04:07, said:

Ok, well, that doesn't change anything about what I wrote. w whould have no choice but to take the second, setting up 2 ♠ for heart discards, You'll see E has more then a singleton ♠, so now it seems to make sense to play for ♦ 2-2 or drop of the Q, and there no longer is a need for a ♣ finess.

I said I was only taking the club finesse if ♦KA left the Q outstanding, now you can't afford to lose a second spade

In fact the size of the trump x in dummy matters, if the Q drops stiff on your right and dummy's trumps are good enough to overruff the remaining 2 twice, you can play to ruff 2 hearts now and all you need is hearts 5-2 or 4-3.