[helene_t]

 FelicityR, on 2020-April-08, 04:12, said:

Obviously it would be a lot more difficult to contain a contagion where people are living in closer proximity.

Most of the population live in cities. The distances between the cities make it, indeed, easier to prevent spread from one city to another, but since most cities have outbreaks it is mostly about preventing transmission within cities.

But maybe one could say that the low population pressure makes it relatively easy to get New Zealanders to accept social distancing. Even if city dwellers are not used to do big shopping once a week, many have relatives who do or used to do. Some are used to working online. Most don't use public transit. We don't have Covid breeding places comparable to the London tube.

NZ has relatively strong community spirit compared to other Western countries.

NZ sends every care worker who has had contact with a COVID case home for two weeks. Maybe NHS can't afford to do the same?

On the other hand, NZ doesn't have a good safety net. Hundreds of thousands of people can't afford the lockdown. Not to mention all the homeless.

NZ has a PM who takes Covid seriously, and who is generally respected.

Given those factors, UK probably couldn't have kept the death rate to 1 in 5 million like NZ. But they could have done a lot better.

[pilowsky]

In a press conference a moment ago a person being referred to as 'the president' just announced that 50 to 100 million people died in the last flu pandemic. The true number is exactly half that. I do not expect everyone to be knowledgeable about stuff like this, but the genius head of state surrounded by medical advisers ought to know such a simple fact.

The same demented orange-tinged fat self-indulgent narcissistic idiot is also demanding the use of a drug that is known to be lethal in people with prolonged QT syndrome. This means he could be causing sudden death in the 1:2000 people who happen to have this genetic disorder. The man is clearly six cards short of a deck and a couple of sandwiches short of a picnic. There are also a few kangaroos running around in the top paddock.

Here is some information from the last influenza pandemic when another halfwitted piece of advice emerged from an American White House administration: at least these guys are consistently stupid.

"Before the spike in deaths attributed to the Spanish Flu in 1918, the U.S. Surgeon General, Navy and the Journal of the American Medical Association had all recommended the use of aspirin. Medical professionals advised patients to take up to 30 grams per day, a dose now known to be toxic. (https://www.history.com/topics/world-war-i/1918-flu-pandemic)". Killing them from drug-induced pulmonary oedema instead of the flu - just to bulk up the numbers: thanks guys." To add insult to injury, the same cretins were handing out cigarettes in WW1 and WW2 to soldiers even though it was already known to be harmful. These same veterans are now in the high-risk group for the current pandemic that they take no responsibility for. (By the way folks It's this sort of situation that you need to save up these sort of words for: not poor judgement at bridge)

Normally, if I heard a person talking the way that whining self-absorbed twit talks I would be asking myself why he hasn't been taken off for a psychiatric assessment. He seems to be as mad as a hat. Certainly, the little guy sitting nearby with the agonised expression on his face didn't look too happy.
Anyway, that's just my personal opinion. It in no way reflects the consensus view of the Australian people or government or any society or organisation with which I am associated.

[Winstonm]

 pilowsky, on 2020-April-08, 07:00, said:

In a press conference a moment ago a person being referred to as 'the president' just announced that 50 to 100 million people died in the last flu pandemic. The true number is exactly half that. I do not expect everyone to be knowledgeable about stuff like this, but the genius head of state surrounded by medical advisers ought to know such a simple fact.

The same demented orange-tinged fat self-indulgent narcissistic idiot is also demanding the use of a drug that is known to be lethal in people with prolonged QT syndrome. This means he could be causing sudden death in the 1:2000 people who happen to have this genetic disorder. The man is clearly six cards short of a deck and a couple of sandwiches short of a picnic. There are also a few kangaroos running around in the top paddock.

Here is some information from the last influenza pandemic when another halfwitted piece of advice emerged from an American White House administration: at least these guys are consistently stupid.

"Before the spike in deaths attributed to the Spanish Flu in 1918, the U.S. Surgeon General, Navy and the Journal of the American Medical Association had all recommended the use of aspirin. Medical professionals advised patients to take up to 30 grams per day, a dose now known to be toxic. (https://www.history.com/topics/world-war-i/1918-flu-pandemic)". Killing them from drug-induced pulmonary oedema instead of the flu - just to bulk up the numbers: thanks guys." To add insult to injury, the same cretins were handing out cigarettes in WW1 and WW2 to soldiers even though it was already known to be harmful. These same veterans are now in the high-risk group for the current pandemic that they take no responsibility for. (By the way folks It's this sort of situation that you need to save up these sort of words for: not poor judgement at bridge)

Normally, if I heard a person talking the way that whining self-absorbed twit talks I would be asking myself why he hasn't been taken off for a psychiatric assessment. He seems to be as mad as a hat. Certainly, the little guy sitting nearby with the agonised expression on his face didn't look too happy.
Anyway, that's just my personal opinion. It in no way reflects the consensus view of the Australian people or government or any society or organisation with which I am associated.

The most distressing (depressing) part is that about half of this country cheers wildly for him when he tries to utter words.

[y66]

 helene_t, on 2020-April-08, 06:17, said:

NZ has a PM who takes Covid seriously, and who is generally respected.

Here's a view of current global air traffic at flightradar24.

Here's New Zealand's guidance on air travel:

Quote

International travel

The New Zealand Government has made further travel restrictions to slow the spread of the COVID-19 virus. New Zealand's borders are closed for entry to almost all travellers.

Exceptions can be made on a case-by-case basis by Immigration New Zealand.
List of exceptions from Immigration New Zealand

No other foreign traveller can now enter New Zealand.

New Zealand citizens and residents may return but will be subject to restrictions upon entry.

Domestic air travel

While we are in Alert Level 4, all domestic travel after midnight Friday 27 March will be permitted only for the transport of people undertaking essential services and the transport of freight. All air transport providers will ensure physical distancing is enforced during travel.

Exemption for foreign nationals connecting to international flights.

Here's U.S. guidance on air travel:

Quote

CDC does not generally issue advisories or restrictions for travel within the United States. However, cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) have been reported in all states, and some areas are experiencing community spread of the disease. Crowded travel settings, like airports, may increase chances of getting COVID-19, if there are other travelers with coronavirus infection. There are several things you should consider when deciding whether it is safe for you to travel.

The CDC urges residents of New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut to refrain from non-essential domestic travel for 14 days effective immediately. This Domestic Travel Advisory does not apply to employees of critical infrastructure industries, including but not limited to trucking, public health professionals, financial services, and food supply. These employees of critical infrastructure, as defined by the Department of Homeland Security (https://www.cisa.gov...rkforceexternal icon) have a special responsibility to maintain normal work schedule. The Governors of New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut will have full discretion to implement this Domestic Travel Advisory.

Edit: In fairness, I suppose I should look at this again during NZ business hours.

[FelicityR]

 pilowsky, on 2020-April-08, 07:00, said:

In a press conference a moment ago a person being referred to as 'the president' just announced that 50 to 100 million people died in the last flu pandemic. The true number is exactly half that. I do not expect everyone to be knowledgeable about stuff like this, but the genius head of state surrounded by medical advisers ought to know such a simple fact.

The same demented orange-tinged fat self-indulgent narcissistic idiot is also demanding the use of a drug that is known to be lethal in people with prolonged QT syndrome. This means he could be causing sudden death in the 1:2000 people who happen to have this genetic disorder. The man is clearly six cards short of a deck and a couple of sandwiches short of a picnic. There are also a few kangaroos running around in the top paddock.

Yes, I agree that Donald Trump is usually way off target, but nobody actually knows the true numbers killed by Spanish Flu itself (or complications caused by Spanish Flu) because statistics weren't readily available in 1918, and many of the deaths were probably attributed to other causes.

As for QT syndrome and SADS (sudden arrhythmia death syndrome), many other drugs affect these conditions, not just hydroxychloroquine, but all patients with this will be wired to specialist ECG machines whilst in intensive care units. Patients with QT syndrome, if conscious, would automatically tell medical staff they have the condition, and doctors and consultants would try to use drugs other than hydroxychloroquine if covid-19 was present.

Even Donald Trump can't overrule medical practitioners at the bedside of a patient. Thankfully.

[barmar]

 pilowsky, on 2020-April-08, 07:00, said:

In a press conference a moment ago a person being referred to as 'the president' just announced that 50 to 100 million people died in the last flu pandemic. The true number is exactly half that. I do not expect everyone to be knowledgeable about stuff like this, but the genius head of state surrounded by medical advisers ought to know such a simple fact.

Since when have basic facts been a concern for him? He's claimed the largest inauguration crowd ever, the largest Electoral College victory in recent decades, and that he's #1 on Facbook.

He lives in a world of "alternative facts". Unfortunately, his supporters are happy to inhabit that same world.

[Chas_P]

 pilowsky, on 2020-April-08, 07:00, said:

In a press conference a moment ago a person being referred to as 'the president' just announced that 50 to 100 million people died in the last flu pandemic. The true number is exactly half that. I do not expect everyone to be knowledgeable about stuff like this, but the genius head of state surrounded by medical advisers ought to know such a simple fact.

From CDC.gov

Quote

The 1918 influenza pandemic was the most severe pandemic in recent history. It was caused by an H1N1 virus with genes of avian origin. Although there is not universal consensus regarding where the virus originated, it spread worldwide during 1918-1919. In the United States, it was first identified in military personnel in spring 1918. It is estimated that about 500 million people or one-third of the world’s population became infected with this virus. The number of deaths was estimated to be at least 50 million worldwide with about 675,000 occurring in the United States.

[pescetom]

Today's statistics in Italy: positive 95262 (+1%), dead 17669 (+3%), no longer infected 26491 (+9%). Intensive care 3792 (0%). Fatality rate 15.6%.
The intensive care data is the same as yesterday although the official report notes a drop of 99.

[pilowsky]

Chas. If you are trying to tell me that the person was correct, can I point out the CDC said 20-50 million. Not 50 to 100 million which is what the cretin at the press conference said. Is that what you are trying to say? Secondly, many of those deaths were CAUSED by the white house Surgeon General telling people to take lethal doses of Aspirin, AND also by the repatriation of young men in crowded troop ships. If they had not stuffed up these two simple policy measures the outcome would have been different. Very similar to the cruise ship problem of today. NSW Australia is now facing a huge problem because the government mishandled the disembarkation of a cruise ship.

[y66]

In this story by Arron Carroll at NYT/Upshot, https://www.nytimes....-reopening.html (updated April 7) public health experts offer four benchmarks that can serve as a guide for cities and states, eliminating some of the guesswork:

Quote

• Hospitals in the state must be able to safely treat all patients requiring hospitalization, without resorting to crisis standards of care.
  
• A state needs to be able to at least test everyone who has symptoms.
  
• The state is able to conduct monitoring of confirmed cases and contacts.
  
• There must be a sustained reduction in cases for at least 14 days.

Quote

These four criteria are a baseline. Other experts think we will need to add serological testing, which is different from the viral detection going on now. This type of testing looks for antibodies in the blood that our bodies created to fight the infection, not the infection itself. These tests can be much cheaper and faster than the ones we’re currently using to detect the virus in sick people.

Testing for antibodies will tell us how many people in a community have already been infected, as opposed to currently infected, and may also provide information about future immunity.

Gregg Gonsalves, a professor of epidemiology and law at Yale, said: “I’d feel better if we had serological testing, and could preferentially allow those who are antibody positive and no longer infectious to return to work first. The point is, though, that we are nowhere even near accomplishing any of these criteria. Opening up before then will be met with a resurgence of the virus.”

He added, “That’s the thing that keeps me up every night.”

Until we get a vaccine or effective drug treatments, focusing on these major criteria, and directing efforts toward them, should help us determine how we are progressing locally, and how we might achieve each goal.

It would also prevent us from offering false hope about when America can start reopening. Instead of guesses, people could have clear answers about when they might be able to go back to a closer-to-normal way of life.

[Chas_P]

 pilowsky, on 2020-April-08, 15:40, said:

Chas. If you are trying to tell me that the person was correct, can I point out the CDC said 20-50 million.

Point out whatever you like. You ain't bothering me. But here, once again, is a direct quote from CDC.gov:

Quote

The number of deaths was estimated to be at least 50 million

Here's the link if you want to read it for yourself.

[pilowsky]

Ah yes, you are being silly Chas. "At least" is an English phrase meaning less than. Since you are unable to spell Charles, maybe you cannot read English either. In fact, 20-50 million died NOT 50 to 100 million as claimed by the man impersonating a world leader. Of these Less than 50 million (still a substantial number obviously) many were killed because of the stupid advice to take lethal doses of Aspirin by the Surgeon General of the time. and by the idiotic policy of packing young soldiers into troop carriers like sardines while many Americans at home were practising social distancing. If the US administration of the time had been more on the ball. The toll would have been much lower. The same is true today. Plus ca change.
What does it take?

[PassedOut]

 pilowsky, on 2020-April-08, 19:48, said:

"At least" is an English phrase meaning less than.

Really? Then what does "at most" mean?

[pilowsky]

Do I have to charge for English lessons now? At most 50 million, and at least 50 million, mean the same thing. NOT more than 50 million. Are you two related? In the flu pandemic, 20 to 50 million died. Look it up before you pass out.

[FelicityR]

 y66, on 2020-April-08, 18:58, said:

In this story by Arron Carroll at NYT/Upshot, https://www.nytimes....-reopening.html (updated April 7) public health experts offer four benchmarks that can serve as a guide for cities and states, eliminating some of the guesswork:

1. Hospitals in the state must be able to safely treat all patients requiring hospitalization, without resorting to crisis standards of care. 2. A state needs to be able to at least test everyone who has symptoms. 3. The state is able to conduct monitoring of confirmed cases and contacts. 4. There must be a sustained reduction in cases for at least 14 days.

A sensible benchmark but quite flawed when faced with the reality of an epidemic: I've heard from my friends in both the UK and Ireland how difficult it is managing with the surfeit of coronavirus cases they are treating. Beyond covid-19, hospitals have to treat all other patients, too - so who then gets the priority? cancer, covid-19, road accidents patients, etc. Testing for everyone with symptoms is standard: testing all healthcare workers whether they had symptoms or not - which the UK was slow to do - would stop the spread inside and outside hospitals. Monitoring confirmed cases and contacts requires extra bureaucracy. Expecting to have a sustained reduction of cases for at least 14 days, as we have seen in other parts of the world, just doesn't happen until the spread is brought under control.

As for eliminating guesswork, here in the UK, it has been predicted by some epidemiologists that the daily number of UK deaths will peak this Sunday. It will be interesting to see if this prediction is right. I hope it is, but with 5400 new cases testing positive yesterday, I seriously believe that we are a long way from being out of the woods just yet.

[barmar]

 pilowsky, on 2020-April-08, 20:32, said:

Do I have to charge for English lessons now? At most 50 million, and at least 50 million, mean the same thing. NOT more than 50 million. Are you two related? In the flu pandemic, 20 to 50 million died. Look it up before you pass out.

It's rare that I side with Chas, but in this case he's correct. "At least 50 million" means that 50 million is the low end of the estimate, and it could have been more.

However, different websites cite different estimates of this number. Wikipedia says

Quote

An estimate from 1991 states that the virus killed between 25 and 39 million people.[52] A 2005 estimate put the death toll at probably 50 million (less than 3% of the global population), and possibly as high as 100 million (more than 5%).[53][54] However, a reassessment in 2018 estimated the total to be about 17 million,[55] though this has been contested.[56] With a world population of 1.8 to 1.9 billion,[57] these estimates correspond to between 1 and 6 percent of the population.

So Trump chose to quote the most severe estimate, probably to intentionally downplay the severity of this pandemic.

But it's insane that any modern pandemic should be even close to as severe as the 1918 flu. Think about how much medical treatment and technology has progressed in the last century. In 1918, they treated it with aspirin and blood letting -- medicine was practically medieval at the time. Viruses hadn't even been discovered yet -- now we had the genome sequenced within days.

[pilowsky]

Except they didn't treat it with Aspirin. They killed people with Aspirin because they recommended a toxic dose. Just like Trump is recommending the usage of wide-scale use of a drug that is lethal in 1:2000 members of the population that have the gene for long QT syndrome. There is a reason for studying to be a Doctor as opposed to just guessing.

[FelicityR]

 pilowsky, on 2020-April-09, 00:51, said:

Except they didn't treat it with Aspirin. They killed people with Aspirin because they recommended a toxic dose.

Britain's finest bridge player, Terence Reese, also died of salicylate (aspirin) poisoning, as you might already know.

I can't imagine that they even knew in 1918 what dose of aspirin caused death. Add to which there were no big pharma/biotech companies with other drugs available in 1918, or the internet. So, it was a case of trust your chemist or doctor and hope for the best, which turned out to a contributing factor to the mortality in the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic.

I'm not a Donald Trump fan, as you all already know, but as I said in a previous post, it's the doctors and consultants on the front line who will make the decisions, and in our first world countries, they should have the patient's records available before making decisions. And if hydroxychloroquine is a risk factor, it may be only administered as a last chance medication when the patient is desperately ill, by which time it might be too late anyway.

[Cyberyeti]

 pilowsky, on 2020-April-08, 20:32, said:

Do I have to charge for English lessons now? At most 50 million, and at least 50 million, mean the same thing. NOT more than 50 million. Are you two related? In the flu pandemic, 20 to 50 million died. Look it up before you pass out.

Nope, I wouldn't buy your English lessons, at most 50 million means that 50M is the upper estimate, at least 50 million means it's the low estimate.

[pilowsky]

Please don't say things that you are not qualified to say. Aspirin (capital A because it is a trade name) was a drug made by the German company Bayer. I always remember this because in 1925 Bayer merged with other German companies to form IG Farben. They used slave labour during WWII, made heroin, and contributed to the Holocaust by manufacturing Zyklon B.
"...And if hydroxychloroquine is a risk factor, it may be only administered as a last chance medication when the patient is desperately ill, by which time it might be too late anyway."
Unfortunately your comment is incorrect. The problem is that Trump is recommending a drug that people can buy over the internet. You might be used to going to a Doctor and going through exhaustive screening and careful checks before you take any drug but in the real world in the middle of a pandemic that is not how it works. The Carpet-bagger in chief and his family of grafting idiots are promoting an idea that if taken willy-nilly may cause untold damage. That is what is happening. Worse still, some people are now also taking anything that sounds a bit like 'chloro-' anything and dying as a result. Impersonation of a doctor is a criminal offence. Apparently impersonation of a competent President is not.
We are in a different world. People are walking around not realising that bullets are flying around them.
As for the 50 million nonsense. Give up guys. Trump would not know a fact if it hit him on the head. The man is so repellent that he will probably live forever and not even catch the virus.
Everything he says is a lie, every word from his mouth is self-serving narcissism intended to deflect blame and enrich himself and his gang of criminal loons: and that's me being kind.
He also stated that he knows everything about South Korea including the fact that Seoul has a population of 38 million people. It doesn't, but it is 38 metres above sea-level. Perhaps you have an argument about how he is actually correct on that one? If you watch him struggling to read his notes you will quickly realise why he is so ill-informed. He obviously has the reading age of a 12-year-old child. That is why all his information comes from television and Millenial sycophants.
And people call me stupid!