[RedSpawn]

 alok c, on 2017-April-03, 12:26, said:

" ----.The old system was based on controls & it has taken me many years to realize that was wrong.The distribution is the most important thing & you should gear your bidding to concentrate on that first."
-Benito garozzo
Perhaps the greatest bridge player of all time.

Distribution matters... I never proclaimed it didn't. But to suggest distribution allows you to conveniently ignore having decent controls within the suit you want to be trump...that's where the theory is becoming paper-thin.

You are missing 4 top honors in this delicious ♥ suit and now that you have this outrageous hand, you want to go a step further. You want to apply the law of averages for the trump split to this freakish board to further justify making the bid without honestly knowing honor placement.

Where is the jack, queen, king, or ace of heart? Have you seen them lately?

Should we file a missing persons report for all four of them?

Who has them and in what combination?

To cavalierly dismiss the importance of these honor placement questions which significantly impact the playing trick calculation for 4 ♥....now THAT is the straw that breaks the camel's back.

[RedSpawn]

 alok c, on 2017-April-03, 12:26, said:

" ----.The old system was based on controls & it has taken me many years to realize that was wrong.The distribution is the most important thing & you should gear your bidding to concentrate on that first."
-Benito garozzo
Perhaps the greatest bridge player of all time.

Oh! You're good. . .real good!

But let's dig deeper and get the entire quote you happen to have locked away behind your ellipsis.

Here is the entire quote (italics, bold, & underline mine):

"The Blue Club system we played years ago is not good enough for top level play. Lea Du Pont and I have improved on it a lot and now it's ten times better than the old one. The old [Blue Club] system was based on controls & it has taken me many years to realize that was wrong. The distribution is the most important thing and you should gear your bidding to concentrate on that first. When we played C. C. Wei and the Precision team, we developed Super Precision.

That was a fairly good system at the time but focused too much on controls and not enough on the shape of the hand. First it should be distribution and then only when you know enough about partner's hand should you worry about controls.

In pairs competition, you can effectively forget about slam bidding. You need to concentrate on declarer play and defense -- that is where most of the points are lost. At teams you need to have more system, particularly for competitive bidding. More than 70% of the auction nowadays are competitive and you have to know what you are doing."

Click the link below to read the entire quote from Google Books:


Blue Club System and Precision

So it seems he was referring to the Precision system and not SAYC. But I will indulge you with a very fair and valid question.

"First it should be distribution and then only when you know enough about partner's hand should you worry about controls."

If both teams are vulnerable, and you open the bidding in 2nd seat with 4♥ (because distribution matters 1st and suit controls later, even with 2 HCP hands). . . exactly where in the auction will you hear about your partner's hand to determine suit controls?

It seems to me that Garozzo was saying yes, distribution 1st but leave some bidding space in the auction for your partner to describe his hand so you can use Precision to subsequently evaluate suit controls.

Help me out here.

[alok c]

You will understand if you think about playing strengths of AKxxxxx & 1098765432.And any number of balance hands of a set can be constructed to defeat a contract with a given hand.

[Vampyr]

 RedSpawn, on 2017-April-03, 07:43, said:

Come on!

What is the likelihood of your receiving 9♠, T98765432♥, Q3♦, 9♣ in the 1st place?

This is freakishly "MONSTER MASH" ugly.

Now that you have this freakishly ugly improbable hand, let's hold ALL OTHER THINGS BEING EQUAL FOR THE REST OF THE BOARD. . . in terms of probability curves and distribution.

Ummm NO!

....

Normal rules do NOT apply to this board as distribution parameters have changed. [/b][/i][/u]

Why? Because the 9 card ♥ suit evidence in your own hand already tells you that distribution on this board is WACKY AND WAYWARD!

Therefore, using terms like "ON AVERAGE" and "ALL OTHER THINGS BEING EQUAL" on THIS board is dismissive of the anomaly itself. It would be imprudent to apply your experience base with NORMAL boards to what is clearly an abnormal and freakishly different scenario.

Well, this hand is no more or less improbable than any other hand, but anyway there is no reason to suspect that the other hands will have unusual distribution. You have been told this already.

[cherdano]

Case 156234 showing that BBF really needs actual moderation. This red pawn guy is clearly just a troll who won't contribute anything useful to the forums. Why let him clutter up threads and the "View New Posts" pages?

[MrAce]

 sfi, on 2017-April-01, 16:05, said:

Nice carefully constructed hand. However, if you pass the opponents are definitely finding 5C on the auction (2C) - 4S and South doesn't have much reason to raise to slam. Nor will E-W find a 5S bid. If North bids 5C over a 4H opening, South may like their heart void opposite a couple of small hearts, and raise to 6C. Oops.

You will notice that in neither auction does E-W get to play at the four level, so the fact that 4S makes is a mirage.

You can construct hands where opening 4H is a loser, but this isn't one of them. Your chance of a good score is (admittedly slightly) better if you open on this layout than if you pass.

It is normal that newcomers to the forum try to jump on cherry picking hands to support their opinion. This continues until they figure out that most people here went over this zillion times and that it does not work good.

When you see someone cherry pick hands to support his position and still fails to construct one, (as you showed why it fails) even when he is so desperate to put all AKQJ in one hand, all the remaining hearts, but still fails to make a point then it becomes laughable at best.

When someone looks at 9 card hearts with no top honor and nothing on the side, missing boss suit, and RHO passed! Which means your LHO and pd has them all, worrying about the honors, as if they have a magical tool that will allow them to spot the honors if we decide to pass, is insane to me. It is also insane to me to worry about our side making something or even buying the auction when I see these cards in my hand missing boss suit.

If everything else divided equally RHO has about 9-11 and LHO+Pd has about 12-15 each, which is EXACTLY the position and the hand where you want to pull the trigger. And this is coming from someone who believes in sound preempts on 2nd seat.
Why would anyone on earth want anyone at the table to have a constructive auction, to have space, whether that is them or us does not matter, when you are looking at 9 small hearts and nothing else, misses me by a mile.

[johnu]

 alok c, on 2017-April-03, 12:26, said:

" ----.The old system was based on controls & it has taken me many years to realize that was wrong.The distribution is the most important thing & you should gear your bidding to concentrate on that first."
-Benito garozzo
Perhaps the greatest bridge player of all time.

Pretty much irrevelant to the discussion about preempts. Garazzo was talking about strong 1♣ auctions and control responses or natural based responses. His comments had nothing to do with preemptive opening bids.

[sfi]

 MrAce, on 2017-April-03, 15:48, said:

It is normal that newcomers to the forum try to jump on cherry picking hands to support their opinion. This continues until they figure out that most people here went over this zillion times and that it does not work good.

When you see someone cherry pick hands to support his position and still fails to construct one, (as you showed why it fails) even when he is so desperate to put all AKQJ in one hand, all the remaining hearts, but still fails to make a point then it becomes laughable at best.

Too true. Even the random introduction of the auction (3D) - 4H - (X) on the "magic" hand isn't that big a triumph for the pass argument. That only goes down 500 against the cold 3NT they were going to reach, and if hearts break anything but 4-0-0 around the table it is a good sacrifice.

But the posts have large walls of text, underlining, capitals, italics, and bold type. So they must be right.

[johnu]

 RedSpawn, on 2017-April-03, 10:11, said:

Oh really?

Let's play hardball and live in your BRIDGE MATRIX...Same Exact Board.

---

AUCTION DESCRIPTION:

South plays hardball and modern bridge and none of that "1950's" mess RedSpawn was spouting and opens 3♦ with 1 HCP.

West sees the 3♦ preemptive bid and raises the auction even higher to 4♥ close out because after all, West knows best. His shapely, 9 card ♥ suit hand with 2 HCP is useless if he can't declare ♥ as trump. Also, West believes ON AVERAGE, ♥ trump will split 2-1-1 so 4♥ should take at least 7 tricks end of story and is thus a worthwhile pursuit.

Now, North being of sound mind and body is sitting pretty in 3rd seat. He wipes his monitor to make sure he is seeing right and then doubles 4♥ mercilessly. ��

Since South faithfully trusts his partner ��, he will NOT pull his partner's double. Why? Because a double after a 3♦ preemptive bid is NOT a request for a different suit -- it is a punishing BATTLE AX penalty.

So, East has to wonder. Does East commit a primordial bridge sin and override his partner's 4♥ bid with a 4♠ or does he trust his partner's judgment? �� or ��?

East is void of ♥ so it is quite possible that his partner is sitting pretty on a very long high quality ♥ suit and only needs a few quick tricks on outside suits from his partner.

How does East respond to 4♥X by North when he can't see his partner's cards? This really gets to the ♥ of the question Jennifer was asking about suit quality of 4 level bids (no pun intended).

MORAL OF THE STORY:

The problem with poor suit quality preemptive bids is not what West may bid per se, but what his partner decides to bid in response. Usually partner is best to "PASS", even if they have 15-16 HCP. This is because the Pre-emptor is already counting on his partner for two or three tricks depending on vulnerability so one should only support partner if they have value above and beyond these tricks.

>>> West sees the 3♦ preemptive bid and raises the auction even higher to 4♥ close out because after all, West knows best.

A general rule of competitive bidding is that jumps against strong bids are weak, jumps against weak bids are strong, in short, don't make a weak preemptive bid after the opponents make a weak preempt. I don't see anybody bidding 4♥ after a weak preempt.

[RedSpawn]

 alok c, on 2017-April-03, 15:01, said:

You will understand if you think about playing strengths of AKxxxxx & 1098765432.And any number of balance hands of a set can be constructed to defeat a contract with a given hand.

AKxxxxx♥ and 1098765432♥ have a very different declarer tempo depending on the placement of the missing honors and who has them and in what combination.

Also the # of playing tricks 4♥ can generate is significantly impacted by honor placement and possession as well.

Please answer the following question:

If you open this hand 4♥ in 2nd seat, where do you leave room in the auction for your partner across the table to describe his hand as per the quote you supplied me from Benito? Benito said distribution 1st and worry about controls after your partner describes his hand.

Thanks.

[RedSpawn]

 sfi, on 2017-April-03, 16:24, said:

Too true. Even the random introduction of the auction (3D) - 4H - (X) on the "magic" hand isn't that big a triumph for the pass argument. That only goes down 500 against the cold 3NT they were going to reach, and if hearts break anything but 4-0-0 around the table it is a good sacrifice.

But the posts have large walls of text, underlining, capitals, italics, and bold type. So they must be right.

Nope, not at all all. I am human and make plenty of mistakes just like anyone else. As Jeff Meckstroth said, bridge is a game of errors and we all make them, so leave your ego at the door.

On this board North and South would never lock in a cold 3NT as East could and should bid a very bankable 4♠ sacrifice even though his partner has what appears to be a "bust" hand.

East has both HCP values and distribution but West is doing all of the executive decision making with distribution and 2 HCP. Go figure!

[sfi]

 RedSpawn, on 2017-April-03, 17:30, said:

Nope, not at all all. I am human and make plenty of mistakes just like anyone else. As Jeff Meckstroth said, bridge is a game of errors and we all make them, so leave your ego at the door.

On this board North and South would never lock in a cold 3NT as East could and should bid a very bankable 4♠ sacrifice even though his partner has what appears to be a "bust" hand.

East has both HCP values and distribution but West is doing all of the executive decision making with distribution and 2 HCP. Go figure!

LOL, you're missing the point. You suggest a ridiculous overcall of 4H, which nobody else even mentioned and nobody else has supported after you did. Even despite how dreadful a bid that is, it turns out to only barely lose out to the game they were going to find. And partner can still pull to 4S over the double.

But that's not the original question. It may be worth looking back at your beginner books to find out that an overcall is different from an opening bid. Different considerations apply, and different decisions get made. This thread (until you came up with a random diversion) is about an opening 4H bid.

[RedSpawn]

 sfi, on 2017-April-03, 17:53, said:

LOL, you're missing the point. You suggest a ridiculous overcall of 4H, which nobody else even mentioned and nobody else has supported after you did. Even despite how dreadful a bid that is, it turns out to only barely lose out to the game they were going to find. And partner can still pull to 4S over the double.

But that's not the original question. It may be worth looking back at your beginner books to find out that an overcall is different from an opening bid. Different considerations apply, and different decisions get made. This thread (until you came up with a random diversion) is about an opening 4H bid.

I think you are missing the point, sir.

When I said "auction description" for that board, I was describing what mafia bidding, guerrilla bridge, or highlander bidding would be like.

I said South would open 3♦ with 1 HCP and West would overcall 4♥. That is not how I play bridge, nor do I want to. I wouldn't have opened 3♦ from South nor would have I ever bid 4♥ from West position in 2nd seat -- not as an overcall or as a pre-emptive open.

Let me state this clearly:

I am not in the business of opening/overcalling 4♥ with that hot mess of a hand and then using the law of averages on this freakish board to justify the bid.

I trust my partner's ability to make sound decisions in 4th seat that I don't need to rush to judgment or play his position while holding a whopping 2 HCP in my hand.

I personally think 4♥ is a presumptuous dreadful bid from 2nd seat whether South bids or not. You don't have a crystal ball and neither do I. However, to put the partnership assets on the line for a distributional hand missing 4 of 5 honors, wow!

The law of averages didn't stop you from getting a 1-9-2-1 hand, why do you believe it will help you avoid getting a 4-0-0 trump split. The most anyone knows about the board characteristics from 2nd seat is what is in their hand and the pass from South.

In bridge, one player's garbage hand is another player's treasure island . .and that is what makes the game so interesting and fascinating. Until . . . folks throw poisoned darts, mud-sling, or start quoting summary MyHand statistics.

Oh by the way, thanks but no thanks. I don't need beginner books. You should give those out to the folks on BBO who run away from the tables after making world class preemptive bids with low class HCP values and anemic honor holdings.

[Nabooba]

Mr Spawn
"West sees the 3♦ preemptive bid and raises the auction even higher to 4♥ close out because after all, West knows best. His shapely, 9 card ♥ suit hand with 2 HCP is useless if he can't declare ♥ as trump. Also, West believes ON AVERAGE, ♥ trump will split 2-1-1 so 4♥ should take at least 7 tricks end of story and is thus a worthwhile pursuit."

I am sorry but these comments show you are not a good player.
3D vul is an awful bid on this suit. You have 7 not 9. No good player will bid 4H over 3D. Are you not aware of the expression never pre empt a pre empt? Whether or not W decides to bid 4S is debatable.

"On this board North and South would never lock in a cold 3NT" (My emphasis.)
Please! On the dd defence of a low D lead and a S switch 3NT loses 5 tricks.

[RedSpawn]

 Nabooba, on 2017-April-03, 18:27, said:

Mr Spawn
"West sees the 3♦ preemptive bid and raises the auction even higher to 4♥ close out because after all, West knows best. His shapely, 9 card ♥ suit hand with 2 HCP is useless if he can't declare ♥ as trump. Also, West believes ON AVERAGE, ♥ trump will split 2-1-1 so 4♥ should take at least 7 tricks end of story and is thus a worthwhile pursuit."

I am sorry but these comments show you are not a good player.
3D vul is an awful bid on this suit. You have 7 not 9. No good player will bid 4H over 3D. Are you not aware of the expression never pre empt a pre empt? Whether or not W decides to bid 4S is debatable.

Please see posts #37, #69 and #73 above where I said this is an example of my entering another person's bridge matrix and playing hardball guerrilla bridge and or highlander bidding.

"This hand takes 7 tricks end of story" was posted by another user #37 in this long post string so I tagged that line in my auction description.

The "cold 3NT" was quoted by the Poster sfi on post #68. Please see post #68. I didn't say 3NT was cold. He did, my dear and I was quoting him.

Bidding 3♦ with 1 HCP and 7 card suit with the bottom 2 of 5 honors, why not, right? I have distribution and 2 honors. Distribution matters, worry about suit controls later.

I was describing guerrilla bridge players who don't follow the rules so the "don't preempt with a preempt" rule is offensive to them. For them fundamental bridge rules don't apply to them.

The way I play, I don't open from South or West seat.

West overcalling 4♥ with this hand is guerrilla bridge. I don't play this way. West opening 4♥ with this hand, I don't play this way.

Personally, I don't have a problem with the PASS button when I have 2 points in my hand nor do I have a problem trusting my partner to make good decisions from 4th seat.

I am beginning to wonder if others can say the same. . .

[RedSpawn]

 Vampyr, on 2017-April-03, 15:25, said:

Well, this hand is no more or less improbable than any other hand, but anyway there is no reason to suspect that the other hands will have unusual distribution. You have been told this already.

The pass by South is not proof positive that the distribution is normal for the remaining players. South could have an ugly distributional hand that he felt wasn't worthwhile to report from 1st seat. Blasphemous, right? So as it stands we have insufficient information to rely on a decent trump split as a basis for 4 ♥ with a whopping 2 HCP.

[sfi]

 Nabooba, on 2017-April-03, 18:27, said:

"On this board North and South would never lock in a cold 3NT" (My emphasis.)
Please! On the dd defence of a low D lead and a S switch 3NT loses 5 tricks.

Sorry, I forgot we were still in fantasyland. Back in the real world North makes 3NT if allowed to play it there.

[sfi]

 RedSpawn, on 2017-April-03, 18:17, said:

The law of averages didn't stop you from getting a 1-9-2-1 hand, why do you believe it will help you avoid getting a 4-0-0 trump split.

Because, well, math.

[sfi]

 RedSpawn, on 2017-April-03, 18:17, said:

I think you are missing the point, sir.

When I said "auction description" for that board, I was describing what mafia bidding, guerrilla bridge, or highlander bidding would be like.

I said South would open 3♦ with 1 HCP and West would overcall 4♥.

And that shows you don't understand how bidding works. Nobody with any experience would jump to 4H after a 3D opening - it's that simple.

Opening 4H is different, which is clear to almost everyone here.

[Nabooba]

 sfi, on 2017-April-03, 20:02, said:

Sorry, I forgot we were still in fantasyland. Back in the real world North makes 3NT if allowed to play it there.

I did say "dd".