[Winstonm]

FWIW: I've been reading rumor and innuendo about Nate Silver of 538 fame, that he has a problem with a gamvling addiction and that is affecting what he is doing.
An example from X, formally Twitter.

Quote

Nate Silver is employed by Polymarket, a site that allows you to bet on political outcomes, and also runs a "prediction model" that has the ability to directly affect the betting behavior.

[kenberg]

Ok, but I still ask "Where are we?"

The 538 numbers sort of reflect what I think has been happening. Enthusias as Harris took over from Biden, some of it cooling a bit, I think that could be expected, then a rise after the debate. But not a large rise. We need more. I won't go on repeating my previous post, but now what?

[pilowsky]

Winstonm, on 2024-September-16, 10:31, said:

FWIW: I've been reading rumor and innuendo about Nate Silver of 538 fame, that he has a problem with a gamvling addiction and that is affecting what he is doing.
An example from X, formally Twitter.

Your reference is a post on X?
Maybe he's also responsible for the declining cat population in Springfield.

[johnu]

kenberg, on 2024-September-14, 08:16, said:

One more thing: Most unfortunately, she needs a very big win. Of course Trump will denounce any Harris win, no matter the margin of victory, as fraudulent. So there is trouble ahead. but we can at least hope that the win is clear enough and there are enough people who are sane enough that we will get through this.

It would be nice for Harris to have a very big win, big enough that the election can be called a few hours after the polls close. In any case, a few votes win in the key swing states is good enough.

For sane people, a 1 vote victory margin is clear enough once the recounts are completed. For Convicted Felon Trump and his cult, no margin of victory by Harris will be big enough. Trump cult politicians have refused to conceded elections when they lost by 40 or 50%.

[thepossum]

59-40 is still very close. There is only one vote this year I believe
2-horse race - wiith apologies to the cats and dogs
What was the remaining outcome - another insurrection attempt

More seriously I trust betting sites to be very accurate with odds
2 dollars Trump
1.83 Harris

On Sportsbet today - may try to engage in some arbitrage