[shyams]

Cyberyeti, on 2024-August-31, 14:12, said:

Boris won because Corbyn was worse, ANY vaguely sensible labour leader would have beaten him

This is a misdirection. The situation that prevailed in Dec 2019 would have ensured that Boris, the Guardian of Brexit would have been elected PM regardless of who Labour put up.

However, given that the thread is not about "UK Democracy being BoJo'd", I see no need from my side to post again about Boris and UK Politics.

[shyams]

Winstonm, on 2024-August-31, 20:10, said:

One thing I think you are failing to acknowledge in your arguments is timing. I fully admit at this point in time I would and will gladly vote for any Democrat over any Republican. That has nothing to do with a slavish love of the Democretic party but a fear and loathing of the current version of the Republican party which has become a systemic threat to liberal democraicy here and worldwide. I do not think any reasoable person should cast a vote for a party that is fully engaged in corrupting the democratic elections and peaceful transfer of power. At this point in time my vote is not so much a vote for Democrats as it is a vote against Republicans. That is the fault of the Republican party for bowing to Trump's will.

You LOL'd to a post of mine about how the betting markets in the USA have progressed in the current month. Much of what I wrote in that post was verifiable via a Google search.

I guessed (in my reply post) why you LOL'd.

[hrothgar]

shyams, on 2024-August-31, 21:54, said:

You LOL'd to a post of mine about how the betting markets in the USA have progressed in the current month. Much of what I wrote in that post was verifiable via a Google search.

No one is disputing the fact that you cited.

People are LoLing at the claim that thin prediction markets have any value at, say, predicting what is going to happen especially in situations that bear such a strong resemblance to a meme stock.

In 2020, the share price of AMC was under 10 dollars a share
In 2022 it spiked to over $250
Today its under 5 dollars a share
Did the market fundamentals change that much?

We could repeat the same discussion for Game Stop, Bored Apes, or - most tellingly - Trump's SPAC

There's a whole bunch of idiots out there
Some of them are searching for bigger idiots.
Other are willing to set their $$$ on fire to signal that they belong to a cult

[PeterAlan]

shyams, on 2024-August-31, 12:49, said:

.... (Side note: BoJo was born in the USA, so technically he can be a US citizen if he chooses).

Boris Johnson was a US citizen from birth (he held dual nationality) until he renounced it in 2016 (following the US levying capital gains tax on the sale of his London house).

[barmar]

shyams, on 2024-August-30, 20:19, said:

A fair number of you posting here would vote for a ham sandwich if it was the Dem nominee. Not just President, mind you. I'd say it applies to Senators, Congresspersons, State-level Legislators, County elected officials etc, etc.....

I think the country would be better off with no President than Trump.

In order for a Democrat to win the electoral college, they need to win over a decent number of independents and Republicans, and can't afford to lose any Democrats. So anything that worries them can be a death knell for the campaign.

[kenberg]

I have never before been so concerned about the future of my country. Pearl Harbor was bombed three weeks before my third birthday and of course no one told me, just as I wasn't told when I was 6 about Hiroshima. But later I was aware of the development of the hydrogen bomb, I followed the Korean War on a daily basis, I recall coming home from a Boy Scout meeting and seeing Joe McCarthy on TV, I remember the Cuban missile crisis and so on. Today is more worrisome . Of course I hope Kamala Harris wins, but it will not be enough, not nearly enough. No matter her margni of victory,Trump will claim he won, that her victory is fraudulent. And worse, at least in my opinion tis worse, there will be many Republicans voters and office holders alike, who will agree that this is so, regardless of any evidence or lack of evidence. If Trump says that there was no confrontation at Arlington Cemetary then there was no confrontation. Trump says there wasn't so there wasn't. If he says there was no crowd to meet Harris at the airport, there was no crowd to meet Harris at the airport. If he says an election was fraudulent, it was fraudulent.
Even if she wins, and even if she is innuagated in January, we still could have major problems. The Republican Party, under the leadership, or maybe I should say under the spell, of Trump will do whatever they can to keep her from accomplishing anything. Of course Republicans can go against some plans of Democrats, just as Democrats can go against plans of Republicans. This is different. If Harris becmes president, the Republican Party will strive for total paralysis. I have never before thought or said such things, not about either party, but it is what I think and say now.
I hope we get through this.

[PassedOut]

I wasn't alive when Pearl Harbor was bombed, but I remember many of the other grave challenges our country faced over the years. And, because the threat now is internal and massive, I share Ken's concerns.

The essential first step is electing Harris-Walz. Almost as important is holding the Senate and recapturing the House. And that will certainly kick off the problems arising from the anger of the losers. Eventually, I hope, Trump's hold on the MAGA folks will fade.

It would be helpful if we could find a way to handle disinformation without giving up free speech.

[Winstonm]

I wonder how much the Notre Dame bettors are liking their bets now. Northern Illinois 16 Notre Dame 14. Final.

[pilowsky]

Plot the course to victory...https://www.270towin.com/
It looks a lot like 2016 - which Trump lost by 3,000,000 votes (https://www.270towin.../2016_Election/) - all over again.

[johnu]

PeterAlan, on 2024-September-01, 15:02, said:

Boris Johnson was a US citizen from birth (he held dual nationality) until he renounced it in 2016 (following the US levying capital gains tax on the sale of his London house).

I don't follow UK politics particularly closely, but wouldn't there have been a problem (politically or legally) with having the leader of the country having dual citizenship?

In the US, being a US citizen is the major requirement along with a couple of others. AFAIK having dual citizenship does not disqualify somebody from being eligible to be president. As a practical matter, I can't imagine somebody getting the nomination of a major party, or winning a general election. Somebody dropping dual citizenship shortly before running for president is just as bad IMO as keeping dual citizenship. The obvious exceptions were in the early years of the US when there were no presidential candidates who were born as US citizens.

[helene_t]

johnu, on 2024-September-08, 17:53, said:

I don't follow UK politics particularly closely, but wouldn't there have been a problem (politically or legally) with having the leader of the country having dual citizenship?

In the US, being a US citizen is the major requirement along with a couple of others. AFAIK having dual citizenship does not disqualify somebody from being eligible to be president. As a practical matter, I can't imagine somebody getting the nomination of a major party, or winning a general election. Somebody dropping dual citizenship shortly before running for president is just as bad IMO as keeping dual citizenship. The obvious exceptions were in the early years of the US when there were no presidential candidates who were born as US citizens.

I don't think it's considered a big deal. British voters are more concerned with gossip about the way the party leads eat a bacon sandwich than what citizenship they have.

Johnson dropped his US citizenship for tax reasons, politics did not factor in.

[awm]

There's nothing really suspicious about having multiple citizenships from birth; many children of immigrants probably inherit citizenship in the parents' home country. It would not be particularly surprising if Kamala Harris (for example) had an additional citizenship from India or Jamaica at some point in her life.

I don't think this really matters to voters, at least not any more than they might be biased against a child of immigrants running for office in the first place. And we did manage to elect Barack Obama (who might've had an additional Kenyan citizenship at birth if Kenya had actually been an independent country at the time he was born).

It's perhaps different when someone actively goes out and pursues the additional citizenship (rather than just having it from their parents or place of birth).

[shyams]

helene_t, on 2024-September-09, 03:16, said:

British voters are more concerned with gossip about the way the party leads eat a bacon sandwich than what citizenship they have.

If one believes in Butterfly Effect, it follows that that bacon sandwich caused Brexit.

David Cameron's (and the Conservative Party's) electoral manifesto position was that he will conduct a referendum if his party wins the election. Ed Miliband's (and Labour's) manifesto was strongly against holding a referendum, especially saying that Tories wanted a referendum for petty political reasons (i.e. suppressing UKIP) & not for matters of national interest.

Alas, the ridicule around the bacon sandwich eating worked and people voted Cameron into power.

[kenberg]

shyams, on 2024-September-09, 08:50, said:

If one believes in Butterfly Effect, it follows that that bacon sandwich caused Brexit.

David Cameron's (and the Conservative Party's) electoral manifesto position was that he will conduct a referendum if his party wins the election. Ed Miliband's (and Labour's) manifesto was strongly against holding a referendum, especially saying that Tories wanted a referendum for petty political reasons (i.e. suppressing UKIP) & not for matters of national interest.

Alas, the ridicule around the bacon sandwich eating worked and people voted Cameron into power.

I was, until now, unaware of the politics of bacon sandwiches. I still think that we in the USA can outdo anyone in stupid political issues but I am glad to see that there is competition.

[Zelandakh]

kenberg, on 2024-September-09, 11:00, said:

I was, until now, unaware of the politics of bacon sandwiches. I still think that we in the USA can outdo anyone in stupid political issues but I am glad to see that there is competition.

In the UK, the more common expression is that people would vote for a chimp as their MP if you pinned a blue (or in some areas red) rosette on them. The simple truth is that FPTP has the lowest level of democracy from all of the potential voting systems available according to almost any of the metrics. It is even worse when you allow parties to draw their own gerrymandered constituency boundaries. The overall effect is that elections are decided by a tiny proportion of voters and the votes of the vast majority are essentially irrelevant. There is indeed a reason why game theory models of FPTP elections tend to predict that a logical voter will choose not to vote. To make voting actually worth the effort in this context, you have to add some additional benefit such as assigning a value altruistic ideas such as civil duty or instrumental effects such as being a supporter of a winning team. In short, the whole hand sandwich/chimp concept is irrelevant in the greater scheme of things. The election will be decided by a handful of voters in the swing states. Everything else is just fluff and pollsters including votes from California or Wyoming are just reducing their accuracy in predicting the final result. It's sad but true. The votes of people living in such states are completely worthless.

[thepossum]

I am curious about the bacon sandwich

I guess they must copy Australia

Two leaders have been done in by inappropriate food eating PR (meat pies and hot dogs)

The bacon sandwich must have passed me by

I will be tuning in to the debate and checking on what buffet options they have available

EDIT Sorry I forgot the onion incident. That was just strange

[johnu]

Zelandakh, on 2024-September-09, 13:05, said:

The election will be decided by a handful of voters in the swing states. Everything else is just fluff and pollsters including votes from California or Wyoming are just reducing their accuracy in predicting the final result. It's sad but true. The votes of people living in such states are completely worthless.

Years ago, I attended professional conferences in Washington DC where there was various entertainment at lunch. One year the organizers had Republican Tucker Carlson and Democrat James Carville. This was actually so long ago that Carlson was a respected mainstream conservative who wore a bowtie.

As part of the finale of their presentation, they had everybody in the ballroom (around 1000+ people?) stand up. Then they had various groups of people sit down. Those living in deep blue states, deep red states, mostly lean blue states, mostly lean red states, etc, and then they got down to where there were only a handful or so swing states residents still standing. They ended the presentation congratulating those still standing as the ones whose votes will decide the next presidential election. A practical demonstration of your point that non-swing state voters don't really count in presidential politics, except to donate to their party so the money can be spent mostly in swing states.

The only polls that are really relevant are state by state polls. States margins of victory are irrelevant since only the winner gets electoral votes (except for Maine and Nebraska who award votes for the entire state, and then a vote for each congressional district).

[mycroft]

"Miliband bacon" should get you the picture.

And yeah, it's about as career-ending as Dole's exuberance.

Strange that incompetence at buying donuts, or ordering philly cheese steak, (or for our british friends, stranding oneself on a zipline) is not only not career ending, but ignorable. I wonder if it has to do with the political leanings of the careers?

[pilowsky]

mycroft, on 2024-September-09, 18:28, said:

"Miliband bacon" should get you the picture.

And yeah, it's about as career-ending as Dole's exuberance.

Strange that incompetence at buying donuts, or ordering philly cheese steak, (or for our british friends, stranding oneself on a zipline) is not only not career ending, but ignorable. I wonder if it has to do with the political leanings of the careers?

In Australia polling booths are characterised by vendors of "democracy sausages". These burnt sticks of tube shape 'meat' sit comfortably within a bread role.
Bill Shorten famously BBQd his political career by taking a bite from the middle instead of the end.