Kaitlyn S, on 2016-December-07, 22:40, said:
Yes, I am questioning what I previously thought was true. You should try it sometime.
Incredibly dangerous? Really? You mean like the two sides' thoughts on Iran getting nukes? Now, THAT I would call dangerous.
Perhaps climate change is dangerous. It is a bit disconcerting that our new president wants to remove all funding on that front. I personally don't know enough to support one side or the other. I refuse to say climate change is a hoax simply because the conservatives that I tend to agree with are saying that. I really am a bit apprehensive about writing the next paragraph because I am simply writing what I remember and it would take a whole lot of research to back either claim up. But I'm going to do it anyway.
Few are going to dispute that there are many scientists that fear that man-made climate change will have disastrous effects. That being said, I have heard several reports of the data being doctored to make it appear that temperatures are rising when they aren't. I will admit that it is quite possible that every one of those stories that I remember may have come from a source like Hannity, Breitbart, etc., but the narrative was that data from places where the average temperature declined was conveniently "lost" (similar to Hillary's emails - sorry, I couldn't resist.
) I refuse to say that I absolutely believe that narrative - I would be a fool to say it. However, I would be just as much of a fool to say it was impossible; after all, just as big coal and big oil have huge incentives to make the climate change issue go away, big green energy has incentive to make it not go away.
That's right, Mike, just as I would be a fool to say that it's impossible, I would consider you just as much of a fool if you try to tell me it's impossible, no matter how much of an idiot you try to paint me as for making these statements. For you can't be 100% sure that big green energy hasn't got you duped. You can feel that the probably is 99.9% that you are right; you can even say that the probability is so low that you can ignore it without much harm (I think you'd be wrong to do so, but I can't call you a fool for thinking that), but you or anybody else would be a fool to think that there is absolutely zero chance that the whole climate change issue has been overblown by people that can profit by its existence.
After all, at one time, people were called fools for thinking that the Earth revolved around the Sun. Gailleo was jailed for that belief. If you lived in Galileo's time, are you so sure that you would have been the person that agreed with Galileo? Or would you have believed what was commonly thought, that the Earth was the center of the universe? Can you say with 100% certainty that there is no chance that in 200 years, people will look back on those silly 2016 rubes that thought climate change was going to be the undoing of civilization?
That being said, the "climate change being a problem" seems to be the current thinking in the scientific world. If those scientists are right, then I really hope that Trump surrounds himself with advisors that will make him rethink his position to eliminate funding for climate change research. If it turns out to be false, we will have wasted some assets but we will have saved future generations from having to confront the issue. However, if it is true and we really need to change course on how energy needs are met, we need to know that ASAP and then do something about it. Losing 4 or 8 years and having climate change scientists go into other fields will work out very poorly in this case. The price of the insurance isn't that great in the overall scheme of things and I think we should continue the research even if I think there's only a 20% chance that it's necessary (and my current thinking is that it's higher than 20%.)
However, there are many issues in which having two far different schools of thought isn't dangerous. For example, neither the presence nor the absence of Common Core will result in the destruction of humankind or anything close to it. Nor will higher taxes or lower taxes or the "fair tax" or a more progressive tax or a flat tax or a welfare state or a total lack of welfare or... well you get the idea. So I'm not sure why the notion that there are two sides to any issue is so incredibly dangerous.
It is becoming increasingly difficult to take you at face value. I have never said that it is dangerous to have two (or more) schools of thought on a topic. Only an idiot would suggest that.
I have said that it is dangerous to automatically consider competing ideas of even approximately equal value if the reason for doing so is that one side disagrees with the other,
To make it simple for you:
Let's say that one person claims that the moon is made of cheese and several astronauts who went there, and dozens of scientists who have examined moon rocks brought back to earth, and hundreds of scientists with appropriate doctorates have examined radar and other images, and have measured the orbital path of the moon and have estimated its mass, and have shown that a lunar size mass of cheese would have disintegrated by now......ok...I mean.....how can you be ABSOLUTELY sure that the moon isn't made of cheese? I mean, someone said it is, so that has to count as evidence, doesn't it?
Btw, you really should get a new source of fake news and conspiracy theories. Climategate, that manufactured hoax about falsified data, was disproven years ago.
Also: there isn't, afaik, a single reputable climate change expert who denies that the effects of global warming can and do include large areas and periods of time of unusually cold weather. Remember last winter and the horrible cold spell in the eastern US?
I understand why a product of a typical education may find this counter-intuitive, but that unusual cold spell was a direct result of global warming.
Have you ever watched a pot of water come to a boil? Even noticed that the contents of the pot sometimes swirl as the water heats? The atmosphere is a gas not a liquid, but both are fluids and both experience convective currents. Add heat to the atmosphere, and the currents get stronger on average...and it is the average that concerns us.
Warming the atmosphere has the effect of weakening something called the Polar Vortex, which is a system of winds and pressure differentials in the northern atmosphere that has the effect of trapping the very cold air in the region. With the weakening of that vortex, cold air usually trapped in the far north escapes and, in great masses, swings South. Now, the resulting drop in temperatures in the eastern US and Canada is offset by the far-away significant warming of the Artic. So on average the earth is warming, but from time to time there will be local fluctuations. Indeed, it is basic physics that when one has a system in flux, with existing variations, add energy and the fluctuations will grow larger. The trend is towards warmer temperature on average, but there will be local movements in the opposite direction.
Which is why people like Al can link to sources that purport to show that in some areas temperatures are not rising. The atmosphere is a massive system, with complex and poorly understood interactions both within it and with land and sea. When I took chemical engineering in the 1970s, for example, we were told that we needn't worry about Carbon emissions because excess carbon would be absorbed in the oceans.
However, while there is much work to be done in understanding the atmosphere, we are not in the 1970s anymore, and climate modelling has become ever more accurate and powerdul. We may not know all the answers but we definitely know enough to be worried, notwithstanding what the fraudsters behind climategate want you to believe.
Say you have cancer. You go to an oncologist and he prescribes a painful course of treatment that will, because you live in a very cruel society, cost you half your savings and offers only a 80% chance of success. You then see your priest who says that for only 1/10th of your savings, he will provide faith healing guaranteed to save you, provided only that you promise to take no medical treatment at all.
Clearly the priest's offer, if entitled to equal respect to that of the oncologist, is the one to follow. Which one would you follow and why. Answer that honestly and maybe, just maybe you'll start to understand the argument.
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari