Zelandakh, on 2015-March-12, 08:24, said:
On the main issue, I was actually a bit confused by Mike's first post on the subject and still am to be honest. It sounds like he suspects Doubler is minimum but will continue 3♦ or 3M after (1♣) - X - (2♣) - X; (P), which just seems weird to me. Most likely I am misreading it.
I suspect you are misreading it.
I expect partner to be minimum because in my experience few players psyche in 1st seat when vulnerable, and even fewer psyche a short minor. We hold a good 13 count, with controls. RHO might be fooling around more than the other two players, but he rates to have a few hcp, so that doesn't leave a heck of a lot for partner. That slightly, imo, decreases the chance that partner is dangerously off shape. There may be players who routinely make a t.o. double opposite an unpassed hand with some 4333/4423 11, but they don't play with me, and I don't think that style is winning bridge.
It is against that backdrop that I chose and still choose to bid 3
♣ over 2
♣....I do not double intending to bid 3
♣ next, since to me, and I think this is standard, if partner were to respond to my responsive double with 2M, then 3
♣ is a gf raise of that suit.
I think that there is some interesting discussion to be had about what, in theory, a responsive double followed by 3
♦ over 2M should mean. Maybe it should show this hand. However, one drawback that nobody has mentioned so far is the admittedly unlikely event of opener, with a shapely minimum, bidding 3
♣ over the double. That is extremely unlikely on this hand, since we have 3 clubs, but when discussing theory, we need to cater to other hands of the same nature....if we held 3=3=5=2 or 3=3=6=1, then the odds of opener being able to bid 3
♣ go up.....and now is P P 3
♦ by us forcing? I don't think so...I'd think it was a 5 card diamonds suit and a 4 card major, good hand but not forcing.
This sort of issue complicates discussion of bidding when the discussion arises in the context of a single hand.
I think that some, tho not all, of the responsive doublers are staring too much at this precise hand and not thinking about what our bidding will mean to partner, while also, to some degree, making up hands for the opps that justify their thinking, rather than thinking about what the probabilities are. It is a very human failing and I have definitely done it myself, and I suppose I may even be doing it here without realizing it
However, the fact that I am aware of this propensity leads me to believe that I haven't fallen victim to it this time.
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari