[eagles123]

all 4 players playing acol p is a regular, LHO and RHO are bbo randoms

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anything now? do you agree with starting with a transfer? (texas transfer not available)

Thanks

Eagles

[helene_t]

4♥ now. I think direct 4H is better than the transfer by the way.

[mgoetze]

Since this is matchpoints, I pass after the transfer.

[broze]

Very confusing that neither opponent has bid and LHO has not doubled diamonds since we have a double fit. At MPs I pass now. At IMPs I would have bid 4H straight away.

[gszes]

If texas not available I would have bid 4h right away--the opps
have at least 8 spades and while they have less than half the deck
that does not mean they cannot compete or even make game if our
double fit is massive.

Passing now (vs 4h) further invites unwanted bidding we were lucky
enough to avoid earlier. At the very least bid 3h and invite which should
keep competitive bidding at bay and increase our likelihood of making 4h if
opener accepts.

[mgoetze]

gszes, on 2014-October-08, 08:48, said:

If texas not available I would have bid 4h right away--the opps have at least 8 spades and [...] that does not mean they cannot compete or even make game if our double fit is massive.

Sure, they can compete, and I will happily bid up to 4♥ if they do so. If they then bid 4♠ and make it after each opponent has passed twice at the start of the auction, well, stranger things have happened, but it does not seem likely.

Meanwhile, even 2♥ could well go off and I see no reason to throw free 50s at the opponents if it's not necessary.

Quote

while they have less than half the deck

Oh, I see, you were talking about a different auction than I was. Carry on then...

[whereagles]

4♥ seems trivial.

6 losers, opposite what rates to be ~3 cover cards means game should have a play for.

[mgoetze]

whereagles, on 2014-October-08, 16:23, said:

6 losers, opposite what rates to be ~3 cover cards means game should have a play for.

How do you arrive at this "rating"? Why can't partner have Qxxx Jx AKQx xxx?

[whereagles]

mgoetze, on 2014-October-08, 16:27, said:

1. How do you arrive at this "rating"?
2. Why can't partner have Qxxx Jx AKQx xxx?

1. Statistical data. A 12-14 NT hand usually has around 3 cover cards. Official source: Klinger's "losing trick count" book. Unofficial source: my simulations (whose turnout is slightly more conservative: 2-2.5 cover cards).

2. He can even have a worse hand. That's the point of statistics: on average 3 cover cards are there. On average...

[MrAce]

4♥ for me if texas is not available.

[nige1]

eagles123, on 2014-October-08, 06:07, said:

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Reassured by the silence of the lambs, Mgoetze believes that the Eagle has landed in clover and 4♥ is taking bridge too far. Nevertheless, I agree with those who bid 4♥ now; or better, have already flown to the eyrie heights of the 4-level.

[rmnka447]

4 ♥ now to shut them out. They won't be able to figure out whether your bidding on strength or, as here, distribution. Since neither opponent had enough to bid initially, it will be very difficult to bid on over 4 ♥.

You've got enough playing strength that 4 ♥ should make a great deal of the time.

As with others, I'd have bid 4 ♥ immediately instead of transferring.

[chasetb]

4♥ now, though like the others I would have bid a direct 4♥ on the first round.

Jacoby then 4♥ should show a slammish hand, and we clearly don't have that. What if partner makes a move with ♠Ax ♥Axx ♦Axxxx ♣Qx, and rightfully so? Likely down in 5, when 4 should be cold.

[eagles123]

thanks folks, I think I was a bit too conservative here as I just passed the transfer. I suspected partner would have a lot of wasted values with the opponents not competing in either diamonds or spades.

the whole hand was:

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and 2H = was the limit, but far more luck than judgement and I'm not sure why the opps didnt compete

thanks

Eagles

[Manastorm]

4♥ seems clear. You have huge playing potential, but you cant really show what you have. Just blast what you want to play and the ideal way to do it is as quickly as you can. Your opponents have a big fit also and points are divided 50-50, dont let them realize it. Dont worry about the maximum plus score for you this time. West has 6-5 pointed suits and some values, he is not playing bridge. He passed 3 times, even meditating monk couldnt pull that stunt.

[MrAce]

eagles123, on 2014-October-10, 01:03, said:

.... and I'm not sure why the opps didnt compete

Obviously W is not very experienced player.

[gszes]

mgoetze, on 2014-October-08, 09:04, said:

Sure, they can compete, and I will happily bid up to 4♥ if they do so. If they then bid 4♠ and make it after each opponent has passed twice at the start of the auction, well, stranger things have happened, but it does not seem likely.

Meanwhile, even 2♥ could well go off and I see no reason to throw free 50s at the opponents if it's not necessary.

You are indeed correct about the possibilities partners hand can be horrifically bad for us
or incredibly great Axx AQxx xxxx Ax where 6h has superb play chances. You recognize the horrid
easily enough and assume the worst when it is normally a case of middle ground. The immediate
4h bidders realize it may be wrong but they are still likely to beat any opps that make even
2s. As for gleefully bidding up to 4h if the opps do indeed compete to 3s I fear the idea is
not so sound since your opponents have been able to exchange a ton more information than normal
and the likelihood of your delayed 4h being x increases exponentially.

[helene_t]

4♥ is still better than PAR on this board as long as it isn't doubled. Then again, against less passive opps the slow route might have given them the space to bid 4♠.

Probably your approach is reasonable if you know your opponents. I would still have invited, though. 3♥ might make. Why does GIB say that NS have only 8 tricks? Looks like two heart losers, a club an a spade. I must be missing something.