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Make a lead

#1 User is offline   the hog 

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Posted 2014-October-01, 05:01

All green

Your hand
T
x
AJ
QJTxxxxxx

(1H) P (1S) 5C
(P) P (X) P
(5S) X
All pass
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#2 User is offline   Jinksy 

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Posted 2014-October-01, 05:40

. They've bid this to make, so P's double is presumably to stop them from making. I don't think it's based on quick tricks in diamonds, and with a C void I'd expect him to pass and hope I lead my own suit.
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#3 User is offline   billw55 

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Posted 2014-October-01, 06:20

With partner's double the heart seems clear. In fact I am wondering why this is an expert question ... perhaps someone will show me.
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#4 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2014-October-01, 07:13

A. Take a look before I do something smart/stupid.

But perhaps I've been reading too much Bird/Anthias.
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#5 User is offline   Jinksy 

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Posted 2014-October-01, 08:08

I'd expect Bird/Anthias to favour the singleton too.
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#6 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2014-October-01, 08:15

Yes. But the ace caters for two shots at beating it: 3rd round ruff & heart switch at trick 2.

Well, we'd have to sim it to know for sure.
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#7 User is offline   1eyedjack 

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Posted 2014-October-01, 08:56

I think virtually impossible to sim this. If you knew what criteria to enter for the hidden hands on the bidding, you would probably know what to lead without having to bother with simulations.


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#8 User is offline   foobar 

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Posted 2014-October-01, 09:37

View Postwhereagles, on 2014-October-01, 07:13, said:

A. Take a look before I do something smart/stupid.

But perhaps I've been reading too much Bird/Anthias.

+1
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#9 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2014-October-01, 10:03

From partner's perspective, absent the double we'd lead a club. In addition, he shouldn't be expected either of us to take tricks in clubs.

He clearly isn't thinking he has this beat in diamonds.

If he has this beat in trump, our lead won't make any real difference...ok....maybe failure to lead the diamond Ace will be one fewer undertrick but it shouldn't be the difference between making or going beat.

It is very difficult to construct a hand on which partner would think that a heart lead at trick one is needed....dummy can't get rid of it's heart losers, and if declarer is short in hearts, his diamonds rate to be too long to permit him to pitch hearts on dummy's diamonds. It's not as if dummy can have clubs on which declarer can take pitches....dummy has at most a stiff club.

So I don't see any clearly indicated lead.

However, I have one more defensive trick than partner expects, so I am going to take that trick now.

That has very few ways to lose, other than losing an extra undertrick. If they make after this lead, then partner has made a very bad double.
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#10 User is offline   the hog 

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Posted 2014-October-01, 19:23

Partner (pick up) did indeed make a ridiculous double on Ax of Cs and KQxx of Ds. Despite the double a Club was led. Those who led the D Ace would have would have taken the contract 1 off. Dummy was void in C. I agree that the D lead would have been best on reflection. With a pickup I thought he may have doubled on the basis of a C void. (Who can tell?) On the C lead there were 11 tricks - 5S, 5H and a C ruff.
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