cherdano, on 2014-February-20, 03:30, said:
That's a very strange assumption to make. I am not sure I have ever seen a system where 2♦ denies 3 spades. There is also small hint in the OP that this pair wasn't playing such a system.
Sigh. I did not say "impossible", I did say "unlikely". Your construction requires
- both remaining spades with partner (let's be generous and say that's 25%), and
- one of them to be the ace (20% as he has 2 out of the 10 outstanding hearts).
That's 5% odds even if you think a preempt with QJT-8th is exactly as likely as with AQJ-8th.
When someone disagrees with your post, do you actually think about the criticism, or do you just auto-reply defending your previous post?
Sigh. I did not say "impossible", I did say "unlikely". Your construction requires
- both remaining spades with partner (let's be generous and say that's 25%), and
- one of them to be the ace (20% as he has 2 out of the 10 outstanding hearts).
That's 5% odds even if you think a preempt with QJT-8th is exactly as likely as with AQJ-8th.
When someone disagrees with your post, do you actually think about the criticism, or do you just auto-reply defending your previous post?
Do you even read my replies, my hand was an example. x, xx, AKxxxx, Axxx has much the same effect, and I have no reason to suppose there are 8 hearts there anyway, AQJ10 7th will do this quite often at this vul, and pretty much ANY hand with 8 hearts to an honour will. I'm unsure of what people do with 3 spades and a diamond suit playing 5M which I never do.
While my construction may be unlikely, IMO there is little damage done when it's not present, partner will usually have something sensible to do (like bid 4♠ much of the time). It's only seriously wrong when partner has a hand with a singleton or void in spades where you actually want to play 4♠ which I think is quite unlikely (given that +300 at teams is no disaster). I'd expect to be doubling 4♥ with many hands with only 5 spades and less than 3 diamonds here, so I'd expect partner to bid 4♠ on most doubletons.
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There is also small hint in the OP that this pair wasn't playing such a system.
yes, but if I have an 8 card suit I bid it in front of a raise, the question is what I do if it's a more normal 5 card suit.