Once more unto the breach? At red
#2
Posted 2013-December-17, 07:23
-gwnn
#3
Posted 2013-December-17, 09:07
Yes, there could be a game. But the odds are against it.
At matchpoints, the answer is less clear. But I agree with Bill that the chances of going for a number are significant. So, I make a chicken pass.
#4
Posted 2013-December-17, 09:57
We have no reason to think the hand belongs to us. We can all see that bidding could easily work, but it makes little sense to go chasing that possibility.
My view is that on most layouts we simply don't belong in the auction, but even if I am incorrect in that, much of the time that we should be in the auction it will be because partner fits one, but not both, black suits. Those who bid should explain how it is that they propose to find the better black suit fit.
I can just barely see bidding at mps if one feels like one needs a couple of spectacular tops, and doesn't care about the bottom. In a similar vein, if I were stuck 70+ imps with 16 boards to go, against a good team, maybe this is a chance...the odds are I'll be stuck 80+ by the next board, but I'm desperate. Otherwise, pass is so clear I have to wonder why the 'problem' was posted.
#5
Posted 2013-December-17, 10:49
Nick
#6
Posted 2013-December-17, 18:00
A big bowl of NO.
#7
Posted 2013-December-17, 18:39
nige1, on 2013-December-16, 18:04, said:
You are vul. Opponents aren't.
If you ask West, he'll tell you that 2N would have shown a better raise.
Your call?
I'm sure Nigel would give PASS a 10 .
I think the reason he posted is because his side was the ♥ bidder and his opps lucked out with a ♠ call ....
perhaps successfully saving at 4S over 4H .
TWOferBRIDGE
"imo by far in bridge the least understood concept is how to bid over a jump-shift
( 1M-1NT!-3m-?? )." ....Justin Lall
" Did someone mention relays? " .... Zelandakh
K-Rex to Mikeh : " Sometimes you drive me nuts " .
#8
Posted 2013-December-18, 06:52
ArtK78, on 2013-December-17, 09:07, said:
CSGibson, on 2013-December-17, 18:00, said:
TWO4BRIDGE, on 2013-December-17, 18:39, said:
My original view was 3♠ = 10, Double = 9, 4♣ = 8, Pass = 7.
Although posts here have weakened my confidence in that judgement, FWIW, my reasoning is ...
- The hand lacks high-card strength and texture. But most of its HCP seem to be working. And it has fewer than 6 losers.
- Partner may have a fair hand but may feel inhibited because he holds 2 or 3 ♥ -- an argument for pre-protection. Both opponents have ♥ suits, so partner is quite likely to have 3+ ♠.
- Action is fraught. At matchpoints, however, It's less dangerous to bid, because frequency of gain is an important factor.
#9
Posted 2013-December-18, 11:07
nige1, on 2013-December-18, 06:52, said:
My original view was 3♠ = 10, Double = 9, 4♣ = 8, Pass = 7.
Although posts here have weakened my confidence in that judgement. FWIW, my reasoning is ...
- The hand lacks high-card strength and texture. But most of its HCP seem to be working. And it has fewer than 6 losers.
- Partner may have a fair hand but may feel inhibited because he holds 2 or 3 ♥ -- an argument for pre-protection. Both opponents have ♥ suits, so partner is quite likely to have 3+ ♠.
- Action is fraught. At matchpoints, however, It's less dangerous to bid, because frequency of gain is an important factor.
To balance those points, you are unfavorable, they have had a very precise auction, and LHO will be able to make a good decision very easily about whether doubling, passing, or bidding on is right. You only have a 5 card suit, and can easily be tapped in hearts. Your suit is AJ542. LHO has a wide-ranging hand, there is no indication that your side has half the deck, or even close to that. Since you have come in red as an unpassed hand, anytime you do make the "right" decision (ie, you can each make 3), partner will have the values to raise you to 4, since he isn't in on the joke, meaning that when neither side can make game, you are sticking your neck out - and they will again be willing and able to double if they are also aggressive matchpoint players. Finally, I admit it is low frequency, but the auction isn't over and partner can still balance on some of those hands where it is right.
LTC is great, but it is only an effective evaluation if you are playing in a fit, which there is no guarantee of - you are just as likely to have a club fit as a spade fit, and you will be guessing which one is right since partner won't be in on it. Frankly, I don't see fewer than 6 losers, though; I see 7, 2 in spades, clubs, and diamonds, and 1 in hearts.
#11
Posted 2013-December-19, 01:45
#12
Posted 2013-December-19, 12:18
It may shed little light on this discussion, but, FWIW...
The full deal and
the actual auction.
The result was 4♥+3.
9 tables.
Only two EW pairs bid a slam.
There were no NS contracts.
#13
Posted 2013-December-19, 12:43
nige1, on 2013-December-19, 12:18, said:
It may shed little light on this discussion, but, FWIW...
The full deal and
the actual auction.
The result was 4♥+3.
9 tables.
Only two EW pairs bid a slam.
There were no NS contracts.
Is it your contention, Nigel, that the double had some effect on the EW pair (West alone, actually) that prevented them from getting to slam?
If I were West I would redouble and move foward from there.Whether I find slam is problematic. It is a good slam after the double.
#14
Posted 2013-December-19, 12:49
ArtK78, on 2013-December-19, 12:43, said:
- It facilitates EW slam bidding or
- With careful defence, EW can take a 500 penalty
#15
Posted 2013-December-22, 10:29
nige1, on 2013-December-19, 12:18, said:
It may shed little light on this discussion, but, FWIW...
The full deal and
the actual auction.
The result was 4♥+3.
9 tables.
Only two EW pairs bid a slam.
There were no NS contracts.
Calling the East hand a "mixed raise" is the joke of the year.
I would consider a limit raise an underbid with the East hand, but barely acceptable.
I rather would bid Jacoby 2NT than choosing a mixed raise for the East hand.
No wonder slam was missed,
Rainer Herrmann
#16
Posted 2013-December-22, 20:21
#17
Posted 2013-December-23, 08:33
aguahombre, on 2013-December-22, 20:21, said:
What's the toy ?
TWOferBRIDGE
"imo by far in bridge the least understood concept is how to bid over a jump-shift
( 1M-1NT!-3m-?? )." ....Justin Lall
" Did someone mention relays? " .... Zelandakh
K-Rex to Mikeh : " Sometimes you drive me nuts " .
#18
Posted 2013-December-23, 10:14
TWO4BRIDGE, on 2013-December-23, 08:33, said:
You could go through forcing NT, then jump to 4H. Or you could use 3NT for that purpose, depending on what you want to adjust in your chosen methods.
You are vul. Opponents aren't.
2N would have shown a better raise.
Your call?