[mikeh]

Anybody notice that this slam that was missed isn't all that great a contract? Yes, it's a little better than 50% and lot better than that on the improbable non-club lead (would you lead a trump after LHO shows long spades, short diamond and good trump?), but that's only because West has the spade 9, which is not all that easy to appreciate during the auction. Otherwise, one needs trump 3-2 and the spades to come home, which is largely 3-2 itself, or a parley of two loosely connected probabilities, each of which a priori is 68.5% (yes, the spade suit is also ok on a stiff Q).

So I can't get all that worked up on this. Btw, I do think that E's decision over the splinter (which would not have been my choice as West: I prefer 3♥ but it's close and I don't see the splinter as an error), is not as clear as East's critics say.

Yes, what values he has are great, but the sum total of his values is low, and his clubs are awful. One reason I dislike the splinter is that opener will tend to look at his black suits, expecting 5=4=1=3 or 5=5=1=2 more than the actual holding, and will wrongly think that maybe responder is looking for at least some help. In fact, responder is looking primarily for good trump and secondarily for some spade holding other than xxx. It's not that 3♥ is assured of leading to a more informative auction, but rather that the splinter consumes bidding space without adequately conveying the proper information. Given that opener has close to the worst possible black suit holding, and the absolute worst hcp, I don't blame him for choosing the slight underbid of 4♥ over the slight overbid alternatives (which are, I think, limited to 5♦).

When we have what is likely to be a close decision to make, my view is that we should conserve as much bidding space as we can unless a more space-consuming action carries clear, precise, and sufficient information such that partner will be able to evaluate correctly.

Over the splinter, opener may have felt that Qxx AQxx xxx KQx was the sort of hand responder was looking for, with say AKxxx Kxxx x Axx. In that context, the actual hand would be a serious disappointment....slam opposite AKxxx Kxxx x Axx is a terrible contract, and would be unavoidable, imo, after a 5♦ cue.

[MrAce]

mikeh, on 2013-December-12, 15:52, said:

Over the splinter, opener may have felt that Qxx AQxx xxx KQx was the sort of hand responder was looking for, with say AKxxx Kxxx x Axx. In that context, the actual hand would be a serious disappointment....slam opposite AKxxx Kxxx x Axx is a terrible contract, and would be unavoidable, imo, after a 5♦ cue.

.

I understand your concern regarding unavoidable bad slam over 5♦ but i am not quite sure if this is accurate.. Responder will pretty much bid 5♥. What makes his hand to make another move over 5♦ is AKxxxx suit, vs a weak NT. He knows they will be playing on a 4-4 fit with apprx 25-28 hcp slam. It may depend on style but he also knows pd does not have Qx or Qxx ♠ There is a lot to be said on teh hand you constructed and said responder could be expecting (Qxx AQxx xxx KQx) Yes he might have started expecting this hand, but tbh it is not that likely after all. They have 9 cards diamonds, one of them did not overcall 1♦ other one did not dbl 2♦, did not dbl 4♦...yes it is possible they may be holding a hand that their passes were reasonable, but imho responder knows that pd is much more likely to be holding ♦ A than xxx.


About the evaluation of E hand. I disagree with your chosen criteria, regarding the worst hcp and worst black suit holdings. I can make your black suits as best as they can be, and i can top the weak NT range and slam will be still bad. Such as Qxx Qxxx Axx KQx or Qx Qxxx Axx KQxx. There is a lot to be said about skipping the 4♠ cue. It definitely denies Qx or Qxx ♠ for me. When pd has shown a 5+ card suit, Hx or Hxx ( H being A-K-Q) is very important. My point is, he has 2 aces + trump Q and limited his hand. No need to mention he has a good holding in diamond suit vs a splinter. Aces are important when you have a limited hand + good position in splinter suit and pd is looking for slam. Also about skipping the 5♣ cue, i know most people play it as first round control, so do i..But up to here everything i wrote is debatable, and i may have a totally different view of how things should/could/would be. I may as well be wrong.


But what surprised me the most is, you are telling us that 4♦ did not ask any of those, especially diamonds but asked our bean quantity and asked our black suits quality . Nope, sorry, i can't disagree more. I have a very different vision about splinter bids. They do not ask my hcp range when i am already limited narrow, and they do not ask whether my first suit is strong or not or whether i have help to his first suit or not. If pd wanted us to focus on black suit helps, or beans, he would have started with 3♥, instead he started with splinter, and we should cooperate with him. You and i both in same camp about the splinter bid, we don't like it with W hand and that we like 3♥ better. That does not help my argument though with the hands you constructed (AKxxx Kxxx x Axx), yes we would end up in a very bad slam, but i never said splinters work just as good as German engineering.

[HighLow21]

phoenix214, on 2013-December-11, 17:52, said:

The only reasonable solution imagined is that now W has to imagine E with a perfect minimum to try slam, but it may get them overboard.

Isn't that the exact basis upon which to decide to make a slam try? You're not afraid of any opening lead, so the 5 level must be safe. West should have realized this. Another slam try is in order. 5♣ by West. You have great spades, a fit, all prime cards, 14 HCP, and 5 losers. C'mon.

East, meanwhile, has to be afraid of clubs. He can't push forward because he is subminimum--even though the diamond situation is ideal.