[karlson]

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♣6 lead, 3rd/low.

2n showed 4+♠, inv+. Double of 3♥ was penalty. Opponents don't play any 2-suited openings.

edit: originally had opener bidding 4♦ instead of passing over 4♣x

[JLOGIC]

ace, club ruff, spade. If spades are 2-1 ruff another club, pull trump, AK of diamonds and ace and a heart.

[JLOGIC]

Depends how crazy RHO is but I'm a huge believer on this bidding + the C6 lead that RHO has KQxxx and KTxxx lol. If it looks like LHO has J9876 of clubs after I ruff 2 clubs I can re-evaluate but seems extremely likely to be 3rd from 4 and I doubt RHO would bid 3H on Kxxxx or Qxxxx.

Edit: dumb comment I have the 9 of clubs so LHO def has led 3rd...even better

[karlson]

Should have just put this in the original post: whenever you play a spade, righty pitches a club

[JLOGIC]

In that case I'd go for Hx of hearts on or the diamond hook (pull trumps, jack of hearts). I assume I'm missing something fancy and obv heh.

[karlson]

I don't know if it was fancy, obv, or lol, but I played righty for doubleton diamond and ♥KQ ♣K.

[JLOGIC]

karlson, on 2013-November-21, 22:53, said:

I don't know if it was fancy, obv, or lol, but I played righty for doubleton diamond and ♥KQ ♣K.

Ok tbh I just didn't see how to do it, you play spade to the queen (if they are 2-1 you can still strip it out and play jack of hearts), when they're 3-0 pull trumps and exit AH HJ. Fair enough. I was obsessed with ruffing a club at trick 2 for some reason.

Seems reasonable enough, I should not post on the expert forum I think whether or not RHO would open --- KQxxx Qxx KTxxx, or if they would X 2N with that, would be important. On the other hand they might well michaels with 5-6 (or leaping michaels if they play that). And if they didn't do that they could definitely bid 3C of course.

It seems read dependent, I dunno. The answer is LOL me since I was missing something.. which seemed likely

[JLOGIC]

Is it fair to estimate that someone who would open --- KQxxx Qxx KTxxx would open --- KQxxx xx KJxxxx? Probably not, I would guess more people would open the first hand than the second hand. What are the odds of someone overcalling the latter hand with 3H though? To me that would be a strange bid but who knows. I think the first hand is the most likely hand for a 3H overcall since people might not want to X but again, I'm not sure.

Anything to make of RHOs club pitch as his first pitch? If we believe that people reflexively pitch from their 6 card suit, and with 5 hearts and 4 clubs remaining they would reflexively pitch a heart, then maybe. I think we should just read this at the table, eg if we play spade to the queen spade to the king and they pitch 2 clubs they're likely to have six. A club and a heart is likely to be 55. Also, RHOs club spot might give us some clue. Basically we are trying to judge which of 2 unlikely things is more likely to be happening so I would use clues like that to determine what I thought at the table. My gut tells me that all things considered --- KQxxx xx KT/KJxxxx is less likely, but I think this is one of those hands that is gotten right at the table more often than on paper. I can't really talk though since I didn't even see that option haha.

[JLOGIC]

On the C6 lead, it is much more likely to be from 4, if it is 3 it is J86, J76, or T86, T76. With 4 it could be J865, J863, J862, J765, J763, J762. Note, it cannot be T fourth with RHO having the rest since that gives him an opening bid. Still, That is 6 to 4, plus the difference in odds of clubs being 4-5 instead of 3-6 to begin with.

It feels like RHO overcalling 3H on --- KQxxx xx KJ/KTxxxx + not opening -- KQxxx xx KJxxxx is less likely than RHO Xing 2N or opening --- KQxxx Qxx KTxxx, but that is a judgement call.

All of that is close enough that stuff like RHO playing not the 2 or 8/7 at trick one (depending on carding), or RHOs 2 pitches being exploitable is the most important factor. For instance, if RHO played the 5 or the 3 at trick 1 I'd be really sure that LHO had a lower one since middle would be a strange ply from KJ8532 or KT8532 or KT7532 or KJ7532 whatever your signals are.

There is maybe some inference in the X of 4C though, if you think that is much more likely to be from KJ than KQxxx Qxx KTxxx that changes things, and that seems reasonable.

[karlson]

Excellent thoughts. Though I think righty will basically always pitch clubs since he can be pretty sure declarer is short there and he has no idea what's going on in hearts.

I also thought it was not impossible that lefty failed to lead a stiff heart. After all, dummy sounds short in hearts, declarer apparently has something, and partner doubled 4♣.

[awm]

It may be worth mentioning that this is BAM scoring, in case it influences the hands that RHO is likely to have on the bidding.

[nige1]

karlson, on 2013-November-21, 20:48, said:

♣6 lead, 3rd/low.
2n showed 4+♠, inv+. Double of 3♥ was penalty. Opponents don't play any 2-suited openings.

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karlson, on 2013-November-21, 22:53, said:

I don't know if it was fancy, obv, or lol, but I played righty for doubleton diamond and ♥KQ ♣K.

Well done Obviously, with trumps 3-0 you can't afford to start by ruffing out ♣. because East just exits in ♣.