Post mortem analysis of bidding based on how the cards happened to lie
#1
Posted 2013-October-05, 22:11
#2
Posted 2013-October-05, 22:24
#3
Posted 2013-October-05, 22:34
To be fair, though, the result is a concrete data point, I don't think it should be entirely ignored.
#4
Posted 2013-October-05, 22:37
#6
Posted 2013-October-06, 01:22
#7
Posted 2013-October-06, 02:03
CSGibson, on 2013-October-05, 22:34, said:
To be fair, though, the result is a concrete data point, I don't think it should be entirely ignored.
I agree with this. If you look on the traveller and find that most of the field did reach game it's OK to try and figure out whether they just blasted it with no good reason (it can happen), or there was a reasonable way to get there. Even if your random partner states it as a given, even if your partner isn't really looking for constructive discussion, it's still a good exercise to think about possible bidding sequences or hand evaluation (should you stretch, should you make a game try, should you accept a game try if your partner made one, etc.) Sometimes it can be a partnership misunderstanding - for example, your random partner plays a raise of 1M - 2M as constructive and assumes it's "standard", therefore expects you to raise with extras, while you play it as a weak raise. Random games can be frustrating but not all "you should have raised to game"comments shd be dismissed as "resulting". In general it's good to strive to reach makeable games, and starting backwards - from result to the bidding, it's just as good as any.
This post has been edited by diana_eva: 2013-October-06, 02:51
#8
Posted 2013-October-06, 05:04
diana_eva, on 2013-October-06, 02:03, said:
Also remember that your system may make a big difference. Say you play a 14-16 no trump, but most of the people around you play 12-14. The hands are actually 14 opposite a good 10. You will likely bid game, the weak no trumpers won't, and despite the hands being the same, both decisions are right regardless of whether 3N makes or not.
#9
Posted 2013-October-06, 20:53
CSGibson, on 2013-October-05, 22:34, said:
To be fair, though, the result is a concrete data point, I don't think it should be entirely ignored.
As my statistics lecturer said "an unbiased sample of one"
I believe that the USA currently hold only the World Championship For People Who Still Bid Like Your Auntie Gladys - dburn
dunno how to play 4 card majors - JLOGIC
True but I know Standard American and what better reason could I have for playing Precision? - Hideous Hog
Bidding is an estimation of probabilities SJ Simon
#10
Posted 2013-October-06, 21:24
Cascade, on 2013-October-06, 20:53, said:
The term these days is "artisanal data".
#11
Posted 2013-October-07, 08:44
I opened a 15-17 1nt with ♠Ax♥T9x♦K9x♣AQJxx. Partner responded Stayman and over my 2♦ response he bid 4nt with ♠Qx♥AKQx♦Qx♣KTxxx. Down one on a spade lead.
Post-mortem: Partner blamed me for opening 1nt with only 14. I blamed him for not bidding 3♣ over 2♦ so we would have reached 6♣ (that wins played in his hand). Who is resulting here?
Steven
#12
Posted 2013-October-07, 08:59
lowerline, on 2013-October-07, 08:44, said:
He is. Change your ♠Qx to QJ, so now you have a real 15 count. Unless the loss of the ♠J from LHO's hand would have dissuaded him from leading the suit, you're still down.
And 4NT is not a horrible contract with those cards. It makes if LHO has ♠K or hearts are 3-3 or the J falls.
#13
Posted 2013-October-07, 09:33
barmar, on 2013-October-07, 08:59, said:
And 4NT is not a horrible contract with those cards. It makes if LHO has ♠K or hearts are 3-3 or the J falls.
I had the other hand. With the ♠J or the ♥J 4nt would have made, only the ♦J makes no difference. Any of those jacks would have made 6♣ a better contract as well. For the post-mortem I rather go down in 6♣ than in 4nt...
Steven
#14
Posted 2013-October-07, 11:24
lowerline, on 2013-October-07, 08:44, said:
I opened a 15-17 1nt with ♠Ax♥T9x♦K9x♣AQJxx. Partner responded Stayman and over my 2♦ response he bid 4nt with ♠Qx♥AKQx♦Qx♣KTxxx. Down one on a spade lead.
Post-mortem: Partner blamed me for opening 1nt with only 14. I blamed him for not bidding 3♣ over 2♦ so we would have reached 6♣ (that wins played in his hand). Who is resulting here?
Do you have agreements for upgrading 14-counts to 1NT? If not, you're definitely resulting.
Move the ♠K to the other defender's hand and 4NT makes. (And as barmar points out, the hearts could also come in.)
Also, it seems a bit strange to me for the player with ♣AQJxx to be berating the player with ♣KTxxx for not introducing the suit. Seems to me that 5♣ over 4NT would have shown the hand you hold.
#15
Posted 2013-October-08, 02:35
GreenMan, on 2013-October-07, 11:24, said:
Move the ♠K to the other defender's hand and 4NT makes. (And as barmar points out, the hearts could also come in.)
Also, it seems a bit strange to me for the player with ♣AQJxx to be berating the player with ♣KTxxx for not introducing the suit. Seems to me that 5♣ over 4NT would have shown the hand you hold.
I could not bid 5♣ over 4nt because that would have been an accept of the slamtry.
Our agreement is to open a 15-17 1nt. Doing it with 14 was a judgement call. Partner knows that I do that sometimes (in fact I did a few boards before).
Steven
#17
Posted 2013-October-08, 04:28
#18
Posted 2013-October-08, 04:49
helene_t, on 2013-October-08, 04:28, said:
I agree it is reasonable to treat this hand as closer to 15 than 14, and I wasn't trying to get at OP in particular. But I do think there is a risk of inadequate disclosure from some people who claim to be playing 15-17 but are actually more or less playing 14-17. What about this one ♠K105♥A632♦A54♣K103 that was opened 1N (1st in hand, imps, both vul)) by a pair claiming to play 15-17 with no disclosure of possible upgrades other than, implicitly, GBK?
#19
Posted 2013-October-08, 07:32
caradoc, on 2013-October-05, 22:11, said:
I can think of quite a number: 'ex-partner', 'former partner', 'someone whose name I just can't quite remember'.
#20
Posted 2013-October-09, 07:19
A couple of days ago with a pick-up partner I bid 6D on these cards. LHO found the Q of hearts lead, which left the contract with no play at all, and the contract duly went 1 off.
Commentary: Him: You could and should have made that
Me: Go on then, enlighten me as to how?
Him: You call yourself an advanced player? Look at the score sheet which will tell you everything you need to know.
It did. Everyone who had let 6D through had led the A of clubs at trick 1.