[CSGibson]

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You are playing a weak NT system, so N is either unbalanced, or 15-17 (or 18-19) balanced. Opponents lead the ♠4, playing UDCA, 3/5 leads; W follows with the T of spades to the first trick. If you lead toward the Q of diamonds at any point, or lead the Q of diamonds from the board, W takes his ace & returns a spade. E plays the T on the first round of diamonds.

First, do you want to be in this slam?

2nd, plan the play.

[ceeb]

It's a percentage slam -- diamond break or Jxx of clubs puts it over 50%. So it's worthwhile compared to game at other tables. But compared to 6H it would be better to settle for the cold game. Therefore unless playing IMPs against unusually strong counterparts I'd prefer to be in game.

[PhilKing]

Against weak opponents I want to be in it. Against strong opponents, probably not. When diamonds are 3-3, they should duck the first two rounds, and now I have a dilemma. They should do the same when they are 4-2, of course.

I would win in hand and play the ♦Q. As played, I am not stating a line just yet, since I am not on play.

[FrancesHinden]

 ceeb, on 2013-January-30, 16:23, said:

It's a percentage slam -- diamond break or Jxx of clubs puts it over 50%. So it's worthwhile compared to game at other tables. But compared to 6H it would be better to settle for the cold game. Therefore unless playing IMPs against unusually strong counterparts I'd prefer to be in game.

In theory 3-3 diamonds or Jxx of clubs is over 50%, but if a diamond to the queen holds, and a diamond to the king holds, how are you going to check for both of these?

[gnasher]

 ceeb, on 2013-January-30, 16:23, said:

It's a percentage slam -- diamond break or Jxx of clubs puts it over 50%.

But strong opponents may duck the diamond twice, leaving you to guess what to do.

Suppose that your line is:
- Play diamonds until someone takes the ace
- If West takes the ace early, test the diamonds and then take a club finesse
- If East takes the ace early and plays a club through, play both minors from the top

If they duck twice whenever they can and East always plays a club through, that gives you 36% + (1/3 * 24% * 1/2 * 62%) + (1/3 * 24% * 3/7 * 62%) ~= 40%.

[CSGibson]

 PhilKing, on 2013-January-30, 16:57, said:

Against weak opponents I want to be in it. Against strong opponents, probably not. When diamonds are 3-3, they should duck the first two rounds, and now I have a dilemma. They should do the same when they are 4-2, of course.

As played, I am not stating a line just yet, since I am not on play.

Did you not see that I gave the opening lead? If not, it was the ♠4. W contributes the ♠T whether you win in dummy or in hand.

[CSGibson]

 gnasher, on 2013-January-30, 17:02, said:

But strong opponents may duck the diamond twice, leaving you to guess what to do.

Suppose that your line is:
- Play diamonds until someone takes the ace
- If West takes the ace early, test the diamonds and then take a club finesse
- If East takes the ace early and plays a club through, play both minors from the top

If they duck twice whenever they can and East always plays a club through, that gives you 36% + (1/3 * 24% * 1/2 * 62%) + (1/3 * 24% * 3/7 * 62%) ~= 40%.

Any adjustment for being able to bring in the heart suit? You can pick up stiff honor if you guess right, and QJ when you start the "wrong" way, but I'm not sure if that's an appreciable difference in the line.

[kayin801]

Isn't it better to finesse than drop in clubs, especially if we find W has long diamonds? This'll also set up a double squeeze if E has J 5th.

[Fluffy]

if east has 5 clubs to the jack he is squeezed if we cash out before playing clubs and he guards a red suit, this means we can also drop ♥QJ bare and avoid club finese. However if we don't cash out we have a better chance of squeeze against west in the reds running the clubs, so all in all I don't know if I want to cash the hearts or not. Against weak opponents I would, since I could trust a honnor dropping and try clubs from the top.

[nige1]

CSGibson writes "You are playing a weak NT system, so N is either unbalanced, or 15-17 (or 18-19) balanced. Opponents lead the ♠4, playing UDCA, 3/5 leads; W follows with the T of spades to the first trick. If you lead toward the Q of diamonds at any point, or lead the Q of diamonds from the board, W takes his ace, RHO playing the T on the first round.
First, do you want to be in this slam? 2nd, plan the play.

IMO, Slam seems OK. My guess: ♠A, ♦QK .If both follow low, then a third ♦, (because they are likely to be 3-3).

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[Phil]

 PhilKing, on 2013-January-30, 16:57, said:

Against weak opponents I want to be in it. Against strong opponents, probably not. When diamonds are 3-3, they should duck the first two rounds, and now I have a dilemma. They should do the same when they are 4-2, of course.

I would win in hand and play the ♦Q. As played, I am not stating a line just yet, since I am not on play.

True but both either opponent has to win the ♦Q from Ax, so 1/3 of the 4-2's get thrown out which edges the 3-3's.

It seems I can win spade in hand, ♦Q, ♦K winning. If these stand up, I can try clubs. If the Jack doesn't drop, revert back to diamonds and hope for 3-3 with the ♦A having 3 or less clubs.

[akhare]

 CSGibson, on 2013-January-30, 13:49, said:

If you lead toward the Q of diamonds at any point, or lead the Q of diamonds from the board, W takes his ace & returns a spade. E plays the T on the first round of diamonds.

On a related note, can the ♦T be an honest count card against a slam (barring say T98 specifically)? I might randomly play the T/9 holding that doubleton and the T from any other doubleton is possible, but seems unlikely.

Based on the play so far, I am more likely to suspect Ax with LHO and T987 with RHO.

[gnasher]

 CSGibson, on 2013-January-30, 17:06, said:

Any adjustment for being able to bring in the heart suit? You can pick up stiff honor if you guess right, and QJ when you start the "wrong" way, but I'm not sure if that's an appreciable difference in the line.

It's not a very big adjustment. If you want to make when diamonds are 3-3, you only get any extra chances when ♦A is doubleton, so all your extra chances are multiplied by 16%. eg For♥QJ doubleton in either hand you'd get an extra 68% / 10 * 16% ~= 1%.

[gnasher]

 Phil, on 2013-January-30, 17:59, said:

True but both either opponent has to win the ♦Q from Ax, so 1/3 of the 4-2's get thrown out which edges the 3-3's.

It seems I can win spade in hand, ♦Q, ♦K winning. If these stand up, I can try clubs. If the Jack doesn't drop, revert back to diamonds and hope for 3-3 with the ♦A having 3 or less clubs.

You make when:
- ♣J is trebleton: 3/7 * 62% = 26.6%
- ♣J is not trebleton but diamonds are 3-3 and ♦A has only three clubs: 4/7 * 62% * 36% * 0.5 = 6.3%
- Clubs are 5-2 but diamonds are 3-3 and ♦A has only two clubs: approximately 30% * 36% * 0.5 = 5.4%
- West has a doubleton ace of diamonds but the clubs come in with a finesse: 1/3 * 24% * 1/2 * 62% = 2.4%

That's about 41%.

[Free]

I don't want to be in slam, unless perhaps in NT.

I'd take in my hand and play a small D immediately (NOT the Q, why would we want to give the show away?). Depending on what happens, I can either discard the DQ on Spades and use my trumps for some sort of cross ruff, or draw trumps for 1 loser. At first glance I believe LHO has the longest trumps because the DT is for free.

[CSGibson]

 Free, on 2013-January-31, 08:05, said:

I don't want to be in slam, unless perhaps in NT.

I'd take in my hand and play a small D immediately (NOT the Q, why would we want to give the show away?). Depending on what happens, I can either discard the DQ on Spades and use my trumps for some sort of cross ruff, or draw trumps for 1 loser. At first glance I believe LHO has the longest trumps because the DT is for free.

This line appears to assume that we are not playing 6N. We are playing 6N.

[WGF_Flame]

1. slam is ok, i want to be in it. there are many chances some are not just clean precentage, opponents might not play perfect defence.
2. I'd play to the Q♦ then take out the diamonds, and if they do not break, play the high hearts and spades, and hope something good happends or the J♣ is third.

[ceeb]

I agree with Phil, Frances, and Gnasher's observation (e.g. "But strong opponents may duck the diamond twice, leaving you to guess what to do.") that my analysis of the slam being better than 50% was wrong. I was careless in my enthusiasm to make the point that *even if* it is a bit over 50% I still do not want to be in it.

That said, a quibble of my own about Gnasher's analysis:

Quote

Suppose that your line is:
- Play diamonds until someone takes the ace
- If West takes the ace early, test the diamonds and then take a club finesse
- If East takes the ace early and plays a club through, play both minors from the top

If they duck twice whenever they can and East always plays a club through, that gives you 36% + (1/3 * 24% * 1/2 * 62%) + (1/3 * 24% * 3/7 * 62%) ~= 40%.

Hypothesizing a line and showing that the contract is under 50% on that line is not a logical way to show the contract is under 50%. I mention this only in fun, and to show that I'm trying to surmount my bad habit of agreeing with Gnasher first and reading his analysis afterward.

[ceeb]

As for the play, I'd like to know how the opponents implement "3/5 leads" -- some pairs take this to mean 5th best from 6 and if that is the case a 3-suit squeeze gaining two tricks is plausible against East. Also, I presume the ♠10 was played on the assumption that dummy did not play an honor.

Assuming West takes the ♦A and returns another spade, against a 6=2 spade break I want to cash another spade with the option to discard a diamond from hand to keep all heart suit options open. East's discard if any will probably be informative. There are a lot of combinations and a lot of chances.

If the opponents' carding is such that spades are likely breaking and again assuming a spade continuation, I will play on the assumption that if anyone is long in ♦ it is East (who ostensibly has five of them) so I may pick up one extra trick somehow then squeeze East between diamonds and either other suit. That suggests cashing the ♥K since if East has a singleton the minor suit squeeze (and club finesse) is likely. If all follow small to the heart it seems to get complicated.

[Free]

 CSGibson, on 2013-January-31, 09:34, said:

This line appears to assume that we are not playing 6N. We are playing 6N.

Right, I missed that zzzz