[paulg]

In real life I eventually decided to bid four hearts. Unsurprisingly they bid four spades and, a little more surprising, partner continued to five hearts. A slight misdefence even conceded an overtrick as partner held xx AKQ Kxxx KJxx.

Almost everyone was in hearts, but the opener had a fourteen count so I imagine many auctions allowed partner to overcall one notrump, making life a lot easier.

[mycroft]

Interesting. I'd be worried about converting -170 to -620, or -140 to -500, depending on what responder actually had.

That's why I'm a pessimist, and a "wanna-A" player, I guess.

[JLOGIC]

Why would you be worried about them making game? If they bid game after I bid 4H I would double them. Our entire had is 2 aces outside of our long suit and they have already announced that they do not have the values for game.

[JLOGIC]

 paulg, on 2012-September-25, 16:28, said:

In real life I eventually decided to bid four hearts. Unsurprisingly they bid four spades and, a little more surprising, partner continued to five hearts. A slight misdefence even conceded an overtrick as partner held xx AKQ Kxxx KJxx.

Almost everyone was in hearts, but the opener had a fourteen count so I imagine many auctions allowed partner to overcall one notrump, making life a lot easier.

Lucky that you had the rare hand that could balance with 4H vulnerable after passing twice so that your stupid methods did not cost you a vul game swing Sorry but it is criminal to not play penalty Xs of 3rd seat 14-16 NTs imo.

[PhilKing]

 JLOGIC, on 2012-September-25, 18:06, said:

Lucky that you had the rare hand that could balance with 4H vulnerable after passing twice so that your stupid methods did not cost you a vul game swing Sorry but it is criminal to not play penalty Xs of 3rd seat 14-16 NTs imo.

OP has not played against enough third-in-hand Zia 1NT openings.

[paulg]

 PhilKing, on 2012-September-25, 18:10, said:

OP has not played against enough third-in-hand Zia 1NT openings.

Probably true but not entirely our fault. We've only played long matches against him in the Spingold and he's always preferred to play our team mates.

[MrAce]

Call me a wimp, i would pass.

They have a fit, so we should have one too, i know. But the problem for me is the fit we have can be totally in different suit than we anticipated and there aint no way of recovering. Not to mention that our fit, even in heart suit can be only a 6-2 fit. We cant even be confident to make 4♥ even if we have a 9 or 10 card fit, can we ?

However, knowing this hand is posted in forums, if i was asked to bet money about the outcome of 4♥, i would definetely put my money on 4♥ making

[paulg]

 JLOGIC, on 2012-September-25, 18:06, said:

Lucky that you had the rare hand that could balance with 4H vulnerable after passing twice so that your stupid methods did not cost you a vul game swing Sorry but it is criminal to not play penalty Xs of 3rd seat 14-16 NTs imo.

Growing up in a country where the weak notrump dominates all bridge except at the highest levels, we do not build up much experience of when it is right to double a strong (or 14-16) 1NT opener whatever position you sit in.

Although third-seat openers are clearly more suspect than any others, how low do you go before doubling such an opener? And is the prime purpose to expose a light opener, show our values or actually penalise them?

Is xx AKQ Kxxx KJxx an automatic double of a third-seat 15-17 1NT opener?

I'm not disputing that our methods could be better as you clearly play a lot more than we do, although what we do play is all at a good standard. We have discussed playing penalty doubles of third-seat 1NTs but, fundamentally due to our upbringing, have never convinced ourselves that it is best. We're not averse to changing our mind.

[JLOGIC]

 MrAce, on 2012-September-26, 06:19, said:

Call me a wimp, i would pass.

They have a fit, so we should have one too, i know. But the problem for me is the fit we have can be totally in different suit than we anticipated and there aint no way of recovering. Not to mention that our fit, even in heart suit can be only a 6-2 fit. We cant even be confident to make 4♥ even if we have a 9 or 10 card fit, can we ?

However, knowing this hand is posted in forums, if i was asked to bet money about the outcome of 4♥, i would definetely put my money on 4♥ making

You are grossly underestimating the chance we make 4H if we have 10 hearts imo. I would guess we are typically cold. I mean, xxx AQxx xxxx xx is a good game. I know partner can not have this hand, but I am just pointing out the power of our hand opposite 4 hearts and how little we will need.

Partner will have about a balanced 13 count here. If he also has 4 hearts, and all of our finesses are on, it is hard to imagine that we won't 4H almost always.

Likewise, if he has 3 hearts, we will need a reasonable fitter but making 4H is pretty likely I bet.

Partner having 1 or 2 hearts will often be bad, and might be accompanied by a double which would be very bad, so I agree with you that there is downside, but I think you are underestimating the upside when we do catch a good fit.

[JLOGIC]

 paulg, on 2012-September-26, 06:29, said:

Growing up in a country where the weak notrump dominates all bridge except at the highest levels, we do not build up much experience of when it is right to double a strong (or 14-16) 1NT opener whatever position you sit in.

Although third-seat openers are clearly more suspect than any others, how low do you go before doubling such an opener? And is the prime purpose to expose a light opener, show our values or actually penalise them?

Is xx AKQ Kxxx KJxx an automatic double of a third-seat 15-17 1NT opener?

I'm not disputing that our methods could be better as you clearly play a lot more than we do, although what we do play is all at a good standard. We have discussed playing penalty doubles of third-seat 1NTs but, fundamentally due to our upbringing, have never convinced ourselves that it is best. We're not averse to changing our mind.

I would say every tournament I play penalty Xs of 1N come up usually more than once, but I play them of all ranges. I would guess they come up more often over 3rd seat NT than any other NT since the other 2 hands are passed hands as well as opener being light more often.

I do not think it is clearly right to play penalty X of 15-17 NT. I do think it is clearly right to play penalty X of 14-16 though, and of third seat NTs. This is not a lock read, but most people who play 14-16 also open 11 counts (since their 1x then 1N is 11-13). So being light in 3rd seat playing 14-16 is much safer if partner cannot have, since partner will only bid game with 10 (and then if you have a long minor, maybe you'll make!). And some people might even invite with 10 without a 5 card suit. You get my point though, the safer it is the more likely they are to be light, this is just the way of the world. On top of that, they don't even have to be light, if they have 13 with a 5 card suit or a random 14, that is certainly in range, and we can frequently have game. I don't understand why people just think you don't have a game after a 14-16 NT. Sure, having 3N is not that likely, but doubling facilitates getting to other games, like 4M, which will often make with 22+ and a reasonable fit especially with all the hooks on.

And yes, to me doubling with xx AKQ KJxx Kxxx is automatic. We have more points than them, we are going to lead our AKQ suit, our points are well placed while theirs are not, why would someone be such a *ahem* wimp to not double with this hand.

The idea is non specific when I double with this hand, it's as simple as I have a good hand I don't want to be forced to pass. Sometimes we will have a good penalty available when they have no run out. Sometimes they will have somewhere to run and partner will bid 3H and we will bid game. The same people who think we can't have a game when they open 1N will probably change their mind when partner does something as simple as freely bidding hearts. Is it really that unlikely partner has 5+ hearts and some values? Game is getting closer now.

Sometimes (often?) it will be a partscore hand and we will be able to compete now. Sometimes LHO will have a 10 count, partner will have a yarb, and it will be us going for the number, but again we have more points than them, better placed points, and a good lead so I don't understand being pessimistic.

Many people do not distinguish between 15-17 NTs and 14-16 NTs. I will say that at least part of my reasoning is that people who choose to play 14-16 are more likely to use hand evaluation to upgrade good 13s and 15-17ers are to upgrade good 14s. No, this is not because 14-16ers are cheating or misinforming, it is just because a large portion fo the bridge population will only count their points and never think of doing otherwise, but those same people are the ones who would not adjust their NT range from the one they learned bridge with.

But even if 15-17ers an 14-16ers upgraded the same amount, that is still far more 1N openers that the 14-16ers have, and a high percentage of them (over half?) will be 13-14 points. I don't know about you but I often bid game when my opp opens 1 of a minor and has 13-14 points and a weak NT.

[paulg]

 JLOGIC, on 2012-September-26, 21:14, said:

<snip>a very good read</snip>

Many thanks - it'll go to the partnership vote

[MickyB]

I remember liking this thread the first time around -

http://www.bridgebas...-of-strong-1nt/

My opinion - I like my weak NT defence so much that I don't mind using it against strong NTs too I think 4S5m is an important handtype to be able to get in with, if my weak NT defence doesn't allow this then I'm more likely to want to play something else vs a 14-16 NT.

Then again, I doubt anyone is going to read this and think, "yes, I really hate my defence to a weak NT..."