Early Decision
#1
Posted 2012-July-16, 07:54
Q62
AKQ4
A8
9752
AJT3
Void
QJ42
AJT83
Your line?
Winner - BBO Challenge bracket #6 - February, 2017.
#2
Posted 2012-July-16, 08:11
#3
Posted 2012-July-16, 08:34
I must be missing something.
#4
Posted 2012-July-16, 08:37
wclass___, on 2012-July-16, 08:34, said:
I must be missing something.
You can finesse in either suit.
Also, what do you plan on doing when clubs are 3-1?
Meh nevermind I guess you can 8 to the 9 and then hook.
#5
Posted 2012-July-16, 08:40
If West leads ♦,the 6♣ is put in a critical situation.
Believe, insist on, Thanksgiving
#6
Posted 2012-July-16, 10:05
2: I would like the auction so that I can judge whether the lead is called for in context of the auction, or whether it has additional possible meaning.
#7
Posted 2012-July-16, 12:04
It's the only lead that will cause declarer the (implied) titular angst .
Anyway, as others have noted, can we have more information please?
#8
Posted 2012-July-16, 16:39
Phil, on 2012-July-16, 07:54, said:
Q62
AKQ4
A8
9752
AJT3
Void
QJ42
AJT83
Your line?
Crap - ♥7 lead sorry.
Winner - BBO Challenge bracket #6 - February, 2017.
#9
Posted 2012-July-16, 17:11
Winner - BBO Challenge bracket #6 - February, 2017.
#10
Posted 2012-July-16, 17:47
wyman, on 2012-May-04, 09:48, said:
rbforster, on 2012-May-20, 21:04, said:
My YouTube Channel
#11
Posted 2012-July-16, 21:08
1)For the trump suit it seems like playing the ace of clubs only wins when the clubs are 2-2 or there is a stiff honor. The probability of that is something like 40% + 0.5*50% = 65%. So, this line loses something like 20% of the time right off the bat (lose a club, and at least one of the finesses, assuming you can't pitch a diamond on the 13th spade). Even if you can only have one club loser, you still need to take a finesse, so it seems like ruffing first round is something like a 40% make. Trying to hook a double finesse in clubs seems better.
2) As for guessing the Kd or Ks, is it normal for good players to not lead away from Kxxx against slams? The lead is definitely aggressive, and obviously there are a lot of other variables that are part of the opening lead as well.
3) For the line I think pitching the spades on the hearts and taking the club hook is probably best. We still have an entry to the board via diamond to take another club finesse, and are still free to take the diamond finesse. The only reason I chose spades is that I think its less likely that an opponent leads away from a king here, so because LHO didn't lead a pointed suit, I think his chances of holding each king goes up. So, the diamond finesse seems slightly +EV.
#12
Posted 2012-July-16, 23:08
Plan 3♥, 4♣, 3♠, 1♠ ruff, and the ♦A
Plan may need some adjustment if and only if East has four clubs. So let me know if he does.
#13
Posted 2012-July-17, 01:09
inquiry, on 2012-July-16, 23:08, said:
Plan 3♥, 4♣, 3♠, 1♠ ruff, and the ♦A
Have you counted your entries to dummy?
#14
Posted 2012-July-17, 01:54
Ruff in hand and play 2 rounds of clubs, if clubs split both fineses are equal, and might pick diamonds over spades just because I can test stiff spade king before diamonds. Otherwise just go for spades.
#15
Posted 2012-July-17, 03:02
Fluffy, on 2012-July-17, 01:54, said:
It is.
You succeed in trumps about 65% of the time.
Finessing in trumps succeeds in more than 70% with some additional chances when KQxx is onside.
In comparison a stiff spade king offside is a 1.2% chance.
The entry situation to dummy requires careful attention, but is manageable.
Rely on the spade finesse. A small club to the ten at trick 2 looks best to me, so that a second finesse later allows you to remain in dummy.
If LHO shows out on the first club, continue with the ♣J
Rainer Herrmann
#16
Posted 2012-July-17, 15:44
Alan Graves is on your left. I took the passive lead as indication both pointed kings were off, even though playing spades is marginally better without the inference.
Other table got a diamond lead and decided to pop and pitch diamonds on hearts right away and didn't hook trump.
Winner - BBO Challenge bracket #6 - February, 2017.
#17
Posted 2012-July-17, 17:43
Phil, on 2012-July-17, 15:44, said:
This confuses me, are you saying that he would be more likely to lead a diamond if he had the ♦K, but less likely to lead a spade if he had the ♠K?
#18
Posted 2012-July-17, 19:53
655321, on 2012-July-17, 17:43, said:
No I'm saying because he didn't lead a diamond or a spade that he had both.
Except he had neither.
Winner - BBO Challenge bracket #6 - February, 2017.