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A Judgement Call Partner preempts

Poll: A Judgement Call (22 member(s) have cast votes)

Your bid?

  1. Pass (16 votes [72.73%])

    Percentage of vote: 72.73%

  2. 4 Hearts (6 votes [27.27%])

    Percentage of vote: 27.27%

  3. Other (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

Vote Guests cannot vote

#1 User is offline   jdeegan 

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Posted 2012-July-26, 03:15

:P IMP pairs scoring. Both sides vul. LHO deals and passes. Partner, an expert, bids 3. RHO passes. Opponents are competent. Do you bid or pass?

You hold:

Q8652
J102
Q93
106
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#2 User is offline   Antrax 

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Posted 2012-July-26, 03:16

It depends on what I'm holding.

[edit]
People here are no fun, editing to ruin jokes, even bad ones, is unkind :(
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#3 User is offline   ahydra 

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Posted 2012-July-26, 03:32

My hand is worth zero tricks. Let them take the cold game, it's cheaper than 800.

ahydra
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#4 User is offline   mr1303 

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Posted 2012-July-26, 04:12

Yeah, I pass too. Partner has made life difficult by pre-empting them.

By bidding 4H, I expect that to go for 800 if they double, and if I force them to bid 5 of a minor, that might be more likely to get a raise to 6 than if they can bid 4 of a minor (depending on their methods).

Some sort of puerile psychic manoeuvre should get what it deserves here.
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#5 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2012-July-26, 04:26

Actually you only have no tricks if parner doesn't have 3 or 4 clubs. AKxxxxx and xxx is 8 tricks although you have no defence to 5m.

What are the upsides of bidding ? if opps sell out you might only go for 500, they might play in spades which could be less than ideal for them (give the 4th hand a big 3244 opposite a 41??). The downside is that you could easily be going for 800 if partner has a doubleton club.

Unless you're swinging, pass.
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#6 User is offline   the hog 

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Posted 2012-July-26, 04:27

I agree with mr1303. Bidding will only help them to diagnose the 30 point deck. Pass and congratulate partner on his well judged pre empt. Bidding is really silly on this.
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#7 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2012-July-26, 04:56

I'd raise to 4. It's quite likely that they can make slam, so I don't want to allow them space to show extra values by jumping. For example, they're much more likely to bid slam after
3 pass pass dbl
pass 5
than after
3 pass 4 dbl
pass 5
If we end up going for 800, it's not the end of the world - at worst it's only 4 out, and it may be 13 in.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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#8 User is offline   WellSpyder 

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Posted 2012-July-26, 05:32

View Postgnasher, on 2012-July-26, 04:56, said:

I'd raise to 4. It's quite likely that they can make slam, so I don't want to allow them space to show extra values by jumping. For example, they're much more likely to bid slam after
3 pass pass dbl
pass 5
than after
3 pass 4 dbl
pass 5
If we end up going for 800, it's not the end of the world - at worst it's only 4 out, and it may be 13 in.

The relevant auctions here, though, aren't the ones you have given, but ones with a pass before the 3 opening. How often do you find opponents who have both passed on the first round of bidding then managing to bid a slam? Of course it happens, but I'm not convinced it happens often enough to be worth worrying about.
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#9 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2012-July-26, 06:04

View PostWellSpyder, on 2012-July-26, 05:32, said:

The relevant auctions here, though, aren't the ones you have given, but ones with a pass before the 3 opening. How often do you find opponents who have both passed on the first round of bidding then managing to bid a slam? Of course it happens, but I'm not convinced it happens often enough to be worth worrying about.

Good point - I hadn't noticed the bit about LHO passing.

Talking of things that don't happen very often, it seems very unlikely that we'd actually have this hand on the given auction.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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#10 User is offline   billw55 

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Posted 2012-July-26, 06:27

Obvious pass, and I expect to partner to play there.

Spoiler

Life is long and beautiful, if bad things happen, good things will follow.
-gwnn
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#11 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2012-July-26, 06:30

View Postgnasher, on 2012-July-26, 06:04, said:

Good point - I hadn't noticed the bit about LHO passing.

Talking of things that don't happen very often, it seems very unlikely that we'd actually have this hand on the given auction.


The only layout that remotely makes sense is something like this:



If we pass, LHO has an automatic double. I doubt they can reach 6m after this start but who knows. If I raise to 4, I doubt either of my opponents do anything but pass.
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#12 User is offline   billw55 

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Posted 2012-July-26, 06:43

View PostPhil, on 2012-July-26, 06:30, said:

The only layout that remotely makes sense is something like this:

...

If we pass, LHO has an automatic double. I doubt they can reach 6m after this start but who knows. If I raise to 4, I doubt either of my opponents do anything but pass.

Perhaps. But at the table, I would not risk a probable -800 on the assumption that opponents can both bid and make 6m. Add in the very real chance that they won't even find 5m .. no way I am bidding here.
Life is long and beautiful, if bad things happen, good things will follow.
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#13 User is offline   han 

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Posted 2012-July-26, 07:39

View PostPhil, on 2012-July-26, 06:30, said:

The only layout that remotely makes sense is something like this:



If we pass, LHO has an automatic double. I doubt they can reach 6m after this start but who knows. If I raise to 4, I doubt either of my opponents do anything but pass.



Rho might well double 4H holding A A AK.
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#14 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2012-July-26, 09:06

deleted
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#15 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2012-July-26, 09:08

View Posthan, on 2012-July-26, 07:39, said:

Rho might well double 4H holding A A AK.

Not quite sure what this shows having passed over 3 opposite a passed partner ? Is it outright pens ?
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#16 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2012-July-26, 09:57

View PostCyberyeti, on 2012-July-26, 09:08, said:

Not quite sure what this shows having passed over 3 opposite a passed partner ? Is it outright pens ?


Vul I would expect this to be penalties. NV, I would expect a light takeout.

I do not know if this is standard.
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#17 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2012-July-26, 10:22

View PostPhil, on 2012-July-26, 09:57, said:

Vul I would expect this to be penalties. NV, I would expect a light takeout.

I do not know if this is standard.

Wouldn't have this problem anyway, would have opened the W hand which despite being an aceless 10, with all the points in the long suits and a couple of 10s under higher hons I rate as a decent 11.

Light takeout NV for P-3-P-4-P-P-X deserves to dial a large number where S has a huge hand without all that many hearts and is bidding 4 to make. I think it probably should be pens at all vuls when pd is a passed hand.
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#18 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2012-July-26, 11:02

View PostCyberyeti, on 2012-July-26, 09:08, said:

Not quite sure what this shows having passed over 3 opposite a passed partner ? Is it outright pens ?


View PostCyberyeti, on 2012-July-26, 10:22, said:

Light takeout NV for P-3♥-P-4♥-P-P-X deserves to dial a large number where S has a huge hand without all that many hearts and is bidding 4♥ to make. I think it probably should be pens at all vuls when pd is a passed hand.


So we've gone from "I don't know" to an entrenched opinion within a 74 minute period.
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#19 User is offline   ggwhiz 

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Posted 2012-July-26, 11:28

Pards pre-empt has done it's job.

If we don't tip them off as to our fit the guy with the doubleton (likely rho) could well have a different fit.

Say they have a stopper, pard (and I with my queens) may have an entry that thunders a 3nt contract.

Say they have no stopper, 5 of a minor might look too risky if we don't tell them their pard has a stiff. Lho will often have a tip top max for a passed hand and rho will be guessing.
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#20 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2012-July-26, 12:08

View PostPhil, on 2012-July-26, 11:02, said:

So we've gone from "I don't know" to an entrenched opinion within a 74 minute period.

No, I was swinging between full strength minor oriented T/O ie t/o but don't bid spades without a real load of them, I passed because I didn't want to hear spades over a double, and full blown pens.
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