Posted 2012-February-13, 15:08
An alternative line would be to win the 2nd spade, and cash the diamond Ace. This has obvious advantages when LHO holds the stiff K. We cross to dummy in diamonds and establish a club.
We need RHO to hold the diamond K if it is not stiff. So we exit a diamond to the Q.
Assume 2-2. RHO wins and must lead a round suit. He is likely 1=4=2=6, since with Kx Axxxxxx, with or without the club J, he would probably have taken a call.
If he leads a heart, we play low, and LHO has to play the K, else we score 3 hearts tricks.
I am assuming that RHO would have taken a bid with 1=4=2=6/ 1=5=2=5 shape and both red Kings and the club A, altho I can see passing with the second layout.
We win and exit a club and RHO is again endplayed.
So if diamonds are 2-2, with K onside, or 1=3 with stiff K, we make via the A.
So assume 1=3. RHO wins the diamond because ducking sets up the same endplay, and exits a diamond, which we win in hand, perforce. I had thought of keeping the diamond Q in dummy should LHO show out (lead the diamond J), but then RHO just sticks us back in dummy and we get endplayed ourselves.
I don't think we can prevail from this point. The problem is that RHO is pitching behind dummy, so has a counter to whatever end position we get to after cashing diamonds, and we have to cash them due to a lack of entry.
My earlier line works on any 2=2 or 1=3 diamond break with the K onside, as long as LHO holds the heart K and RHO both the heart J and club Ace...the latter being almost for sure.
This revised line needs 2-2 diamonds or the stiff K offside. A priori, this revised line is significantly worse than the first. However, the lack of any bidding by RHO seems to me to shift the odds slightly.
I'd still go with my original line.
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari