[Quartic]

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Playing in an IMP pairs game on BBO you pick up the South hand. The auction proceeds to 3NT by East. East-West play a weak NT so East's 1NT rebid was 15-17 with a ♠ stop.

You lead your ♠5 won by declarer with the K, partner contributing the T. Declarer now plays the ♥J, what's your plan?

[gnasher]

I think partner has ♦K, because declarer chose to play hearts at trick two. For example, with KQx J10x Kxx AQ10x he'd definitely have played a diamond.

Hence I'd duck, playing declarer for something like for KQx J10x xx AKQxx. If he now plays another heart or a diamond I'll examine partner's signals carefully, but I expect I'll be playing two more rounds of hearts.

[bluecalm]

If declarer has: KQx xxx Kxx AKTxx I have to hop with the ace and play spades.
If declarer has: KQx Jxx xxx AKQxx I need to unblock A diamond sooner or later and wait for my tricks. The problem is difficult because with hand no 1 I can't afford to duck hearts to gather more information because it's 10th trick for declarer.
Partner hearts discard will only tell me about location of J♠ so it won't solve my problems.

How would declarer play with hand no1 and no2 ? With no2 he always plays hearts, with no1 maybe he would play A♣ first or maybe he would open diamonds instead of hearts.
My plan is to duck now and see what happens if declarer plays another heart I take with the ace, unblock A♦ and see what partner signal. If he signals K♦ I return safe ♥ and wait for my tricks if not I try to cash A♠.

I would love to see more thoughts on this hand as this is the kind of problem I have trouble analyzing at the table.

[Statto]

If declarer started with 4 ♠, there doesn't seem to be much we can do unless partner has 2 tricks, which seems unlikely. Let's assume declarer started with 3 ♠. If they are looking at 6-7 tricks in the minors, the ♠ trick already won, perhaps a ♠ to come, plus another (the ♥), they may never need to play ♥ again, and we won't get to make our ♠.

So I'd rise with ♥A and play ♠9, hoping to cash the ♠ when in with ♦A which we inevitably will be. If it turns out declarer had 4 ♠, we'll now have overcards in ♠, so declarer can't make any more than the 2 ♠ tricks they were originally entitled.

[gnasher]

Bluecalm, did you see that it says IMPs? I agree that it's an interesting problem at matchpoints too.

[bluecalm]

No I miseed that (maybe it wasn't in OP ?). Anyway my play is the same. Playing A♠ only works with KQ tight in declarer's hand (playing low is obviously completely wrong) but could easily present him with 9th trick if he has what looks like his most likely holding. So I take 2nd heart, cash A♦ and barring discouraging signal I exit safely with a heart. I still have chances vs KQ tight if we don't have K♦.

[phil_20686]

This is quite hard I think, if declarer has something like KQJx Jx Kxx KTxx

Then we need to deny him dummy entries to play on clubs, in this layout he will get 2s 2h 3d but if I set up partners hearts he will lose 1s 1d 1c and two hearts. Layouts where declarer has AQxxx club and KQx need a passive defence, but there is danger here with the stiff ace of diamonds, if declarer has KQx Jxx xx AQTxx and I win the second heart and play a heart then 5 rounds of clubs and a diamond up will endplay me in the spade suit. Declarer will take 2 spades, two hearts and 5 diamonds. I could throw the diamond under the fifth club but declarer will have my shape and can prevent this by cashing four rounds of trumps. To avoid it I must cash the diamond early. then we get, eventually, two diamonds, one spade and two hearts.

[bluecalm]

Quote

if declarer has something like KQJx Jx Kxx KTxx

This is 13hcp. Declarer showed 15-17.

[inquiry]

We can account for a minimum of 36 hcp (declarer with 15) to 38 (declarer with 17) hcp. That leaves partner with two to four points. Partner could have ♠QJT or ♠JT or ♠T3 or even ♠T.

If partner would raise to 2♠ over the double on trash when holding three spades (perhaps using 2♥ as a good raise to 2♠) we can surely eliminate his holding the QJT, and maybe the JT3 holding. I suspect he could have JT3 when his other hcp is another queen or jack of clubs. If partner has JT doubleton, and partner can get in, the suit is blocked (declarer will clearly duck the spade jack knowing you overcalled with a five card suit).

I like the idea that partner likely holds the diamond king (his other points, besides the hypothetical spade jack, can be the the ♣J, Q, or K, or the ♦K). Partner having a club honor is not working in our favor, because even if partner has something clever like the ♣KTx(x) even the ten can be finessed with the J98 in dummy if declarer needs it. So I think it is reasonable to play partner for the ♦K and the ♠J because it it imps. It is also reasoable to play partner for the diamond king because declarer attacked hearts instead of diamonds (as pointed out earlier). A key part of this suggestion is that declarer will not have four hearts (he bid nt over the negative double rather than hearts). Ww can not set it if declarer ahd KQJ3 of spades either, so we play declarer for 2 or 3 spades, 2 or 3 hearts. It would be nice to know if they open 1♦ when 4-4 in the minors. i duck the first heart to get heart count from partner, and to push the defense along, I win the second heart. Ideally (on this hand at least) partner will give his spade count on the 2nd heart.

if partner showed odd original spade count, i cash spade ace, and led a spade to partner's jack if he was asleep and didn't unblock. If partner showed doubleton spade, I cash diamond ace and return a third heart, setting partner's hearts up while he has the diamond entry. (declarer likely 3-2-3-5 if partner has JT of spades).

What if partner does not give spade count in this situation? IF partner shows five hearts (odd number), I play declarer for 3-2-3-5 if they open 1♦ with 4-4, so they have only 8 tricks (5 clubs, 1♠, 2♥) so I still win the 2nd heart, unblock the ♦A and exit the third heart. This defense wins one less trick than it should when declarer is 2-2-4-5 (but still sets it), and allows him to make when he is 2-2-3-6, but you got to try something. If partner showed even (4 hearts), I would play declarer to be a bland 3-3-3-4 or 2-3-3-5 and cash the spade ace and continue spades.

[bluecalm]

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i duck the first heart to get heart count from partner

I think heart signal should be smith showing J♠.
I think partner can't have QJT as he should've played J from that holding.
Maybe in that specific situation instead of smith substitute count is better but it requires good agreements.

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if partner showed odd original spade count, i cash spade ace, and led a spade to partner's jack

This will be quite likely 9th trick for declarer. 2hearts, 2 spades and quite possible 5 clubs.

[Statto]

bluecalm, on 2012-January-25, 05:12, said:

Playing A♠ only works with KQ tight in declarer's hand (playing low is obviously completely wrong) ...

It depends when you take the ♥. If declarer has ♠KQx-♥Jxx-♦Kxx-♣AK10x they've just given you an opportunity to defeat the contract by taking the ♥ immediately and playing ♠, where playing the 9 is better than playing the Ace to prevent an (extra) overtrick when declarer started with 4 ♠. (I know this is IMPs, but they still count.)

But that looks like a mistake by declarer, so I now prefer playing partner to have ♦K...

[inquiry]

bluecalm, on 2012-January-25, 13:51, said:

Quote

if partner showed odd original spade count, i cash spade ace, and led a spade to partner's jack

This will be quite likely 9th trick for declarer. 2hearts, 2 spades and quite possible 5 clubs.

I know I am math challenged, but if partner has an odd number of spades (ie, 3), with 3 in dummy and five in my hand, cashing the spade ace does not give declarer his 9th trick. Cashing the spade ace only give him his 9th trick if partner has an even number (ie, 2) spades. This is why cashing the spade ace is only an option if partner gives substitute count in spades. If you don't play that signal, you have to plot your defense based on your estimate of declarer's tricks, which will depend a lot on rather or not your partner has 4 or 5 hearts (And again, what they open with 4-4 in the minors).

[bluecalm]

I am sorry I misunderstood your point apparently.
As to substitute count I think it might be a position for it but if it is I think first heart card should be it (instead of smith).

[Quartic]

On this hand any careful defence will get the contract 1 or 2 down. The full hand was:

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Happily (for me sitting East) South misdefended by playing a small spade back after winning the ♥A, giving me my 9th trick.

I wasn't entirely happy with my 1NT bid, but felt it was more practical than either 2♣ or 2♦.

[gnasher]

I don't think that any layout where declarer is 2-5 in the blacks is believable. On all such layouts partner should have raised spades.

[Quartic]

gnasher, on 2012-January-26, 02:22, said:

I don't think that any layout where declarer is 2-5 in the blacks is believable. On all such layouts partner should have raised spades.

Maybe so, but this North for some reason decided not to.