[1eyedjack]

JLOGIC, on 2011-September-01, 00:12, said:

How do you still not get it. I (and I presume han) think the chance of ii is 0>x<.0000000000001

No one is leading stiff 9. And WTF at iii, 9 from J9xxx...ok I'll go with about the same as ii.

As far as RHO cashing the heart, obviously it depends on how good they are, but there is definitely a very good chance that they won't. I would estimate this as much higher than i (lead from KJ9 of hearts).

We can agree to differ on (i). Bear in mind that it is not the a priori odds that we need, but the odds as adjusted in light of bidding and lead.
I agree with your estimate of (iii). I would not expect that to have a significant effect on the calculation. I included it for completeness. I do not rely on it and do not insist on it. It was included purely for completeness to ensure that all options add up to a probability of 1.
We can also agree to differ on the relative likelihood of West underleading HK compared with East failing to cash the King. Even if you think that lead from King is more likely (I do not), I remain of the view that "just awful" is pure hyperbole.

[JLOGIC]

KJ9 is just an aggressive lead...if partner has the queen it works out well! IME people make this lead, I mean it would be weird but it has definite obvious upside.

Leading stiff 9 of RHOs suit is not passive and is not looking to build tricks, it is just completely random.

Obviously I overlooked the chance of any defensive error (which when I saw pointed out, acknowledged immediately...I am not looking to just be right). I am not always right. That said, in the context of me overlooking that, "just awful" was not intended as hyperbole. I think stiff 9 is 0 % so I thought playing the ace was "just awful" in the sense of nullo. Obv my bad for overlooking the main point of the hand, thanks for setting me straight, sorry that I am not always right and miss things. Please take my "just awful" post in context of completely missing the main (only imo) reason for playing the ace. I could be wrong about that also, but it was just my opinion, and I was throwing it out there.

I am not actually sorry but I am still curious if I offended you...if so, don't really know what to say.

[JLOGIC]

Playing the queen is awful imo btw

[1eyedjack]

I guess I just had a bad night.

I was curious by your comment regarding whether RHO was "good enough" to cash the Heart King when in with the Club Ace. If cashing the King is the measure of his greatness as a player, would he still be so great a player if the next time he does that in the same situation declarer turns out to have had Spade KQJ instead of AK?

[JLOGIC]

1eyedjack, on 2011-September-01, 01:07, said:

I guess I just had a bad night.

I was curious by your comment regarding whether RHO was "good enough" to cash the Heart King when in with the Club Ace. If cashing the King is the measure of his greatness as a player, would he still be so great a player if the next time he does that in the same situation declarer turns out to have had Spade KQJ instead of AK?

He will not win the first club. He will get some signal from partner (I like suit preference, most seem to like smith, same thing). ez game.