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Assess the Blame Bad MP result

#1 User is offline   awm 

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Posted 2011-August-20, 12:32



Obviously 5X making was not a very good result. Who's to blame (if anyone) and what should N/S have done differently?

I put this in the non-natural system forum because ofthe non-standard 2 cuebid in case anyone is wondering. The agreement is as described; usually it is 4 and 5-6 (most 5/5 hands don't bid this way) and it's supposed to be "opening strength" whatever that means. N/S carding is udca with obvious shift and frequent suit preference, in case it matters.
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#2 User is offline   dake50 

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Posted 2011-August-20, 13:00

Doesn't A, A, Diamond out put declarer to a
"finesse spades with 10-fit now or set?"
Secondly didn't the 5H bid refuse to defend?
Then surely no X.
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#3 User is offline   chasetb 

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Posted 2011-August-20, 13:37

2 is an Astro cuebid, it generally shows 4-5!H and longer (unless either suit is bid naturally, then the next suit up). Anyway, I blame North mostly. While South shouldn't be defending with a void, North fits South like a glove and should probably move over the X. Even without the move, North should discourage a second lead, knowing West would be out. Then South will probably lead a !D, and that sets the contract provided West plays for the 2-1 break (very likely). Overall, I give North 90%, South 10%
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#4 User is offline   mike777 

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Posted 2011-August-20, 13:58

I give south the vast majority of the blame.

Prefer 5c after 4s and then pass 5s.
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#5 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2011-August-20, 14:22

Unless you're playing some sort of action doubles, I think South had no business doubling 5.
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#6 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2011-August-20, 14:28

Let me guess - Josh S has got you playing overcall structure? Welcome to the dark side!

With a 0=4=3=6, its OK to overcall 1N, however with 10 of the 11 HCP in two suits, 2 looks right.

This is a tough hand, but systemically, it seems you have a chance to do well. At other tables, the bidding may go 1 - 2 - 2 or 3 and the heart suit may be lost. Yes, we can all see that we can make 6 of something, but I don't think many tables will find this. Realistically, your best chance to get some MPs is to set 5. I'm not sure I'd double 5. You aren't getting this 800, so unless you think the field is also defending 5 and you are 100% pretty sure of beating this, you shouldn't x.

North's heart spot at T1 is SP, not attitude, although it appears you are playing obvious shift. North also knows a 2nd heart isn't cashing, so it looks like a good idea to take the diamond entry off before declarer finds out about spades. So I think North should signal for diamonds and let things run their course.
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#7 User is offline   awm 

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Posted 2011-August-21, 01:01

View PostPhil, on 2011-August-20, 14:28, said:

Let me guess - Josh S has got you playing overcall structure? Welcome to the dark side!

With a 0=4=3=6, its OK to overcall 1N, however with 10 of the 11 HCP in two suits, 2 looks right.

This is a tough hand, but systemically, it seems you have a chance to do well. At other tables, the bidding may go 1 - 2 - 2 or 3 and the heart suit may be lost. Yes, we can all see that we can make 6 of something, but I don't think many tables will find this. Realistically, your best chance to get some MPs is to set 5. I'm not sure I'd double 5. You aren't getting this 800, so unless you think the field is also defending 5 and you are 100% pretty sure of beating this, you shouldn't x.

North's heart spot at T1 is SP, not attitude, although it appears you are playing obvious shift. North also knows a 2nd heart isn't cashing, so it looks like a good idea to take the diamond entry off before declarer finds out about spades. So I think North should signal for diamonds and let things run their course.


Your storyline is a bit off here. Sam and I have played top and bottom cues for almost a decade, far longer than I have even known about overcall structure. BTW I think the 2-suited overcalls part of overcall structure is a good method, it's the power double/1NT for takeout that I dislike.

The field results on this hand were all over the place. In particular: -850 is 0/12 MP as is -650, +100 is 3/12, +200 is 5/12, +500 is 6/12, +1430 is 10/12, +1660 is 12/12.

We don't play "suit preference" at trick one here, and I'm not sure why you think we should. Couldn't declarer have a second heart? Couldn't it be important to play a second heart rather than switch (which might allow declarer tempo to discard a heart from either hand) or even just play a passive defense by forcing declarer to ruff? Anyway, my view is that one of the nice things about obvious shift is that the meaning of your trick one signal is pretty well-defined and doesn't involve guessing games about which is signal partner will think is most useful under the circumstances.
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#8 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2011-August-21, 04:49

Agree with you about the 2 suited portion of OS and how bad 1NTO is. I've had very good results with power doubles. Anyway,

Obvious shift doesn't work well on this hand. All you can do is to encourage hearts and hope partner can figure out the continuation, which looks doubtful.

(edited)
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#9 User is offline   mike777 

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Posted 2011-August-21, 05:09

btw playing OS then the 2ofH asks for a club switch. Clubs is the OS suit.

so AH then Ac then it should not be too hard to find the d switch. Declarer may very well choose to take the finesse anyway on that bidding.
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#10 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2011-August-21, 06:02

View Postmike777, on 2011-August-21, 05:09, said:

btw playing OS then the 2ofH asks for a club switch. Clubs is the OS suit.

so AH then Ac then it should not be too hard to find the d switch. Declarer may very well choose to take the finesse anyway on that bidding.


Playing OS we have every reason not to play the A. Why can't declarer be 6=1=4=2?

(Adam also mentioned UDCA in the intro, so the 8 would ask for a club)
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#11 User is offline   hotShot 

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Posted 2011-August-21, 07:18

North has to take the blame.

North knows that he has 6 to partners 4 and 3 to partners 5+. That means that he knows about a double fit with at least 18 cards.
He knows that defending the best possible split in will allow 1 trick and that about half of the time there is only 1 trick for their side.
He also knows that a trick in more than unlikely if opps can play from the table at least once. And the odds for a trick are dubious at best.
Knowing all that, combined with the knowledge that opps will have an 18-card double fit too, anb because they have the , he should bid 5. and not 4 (he can be pretty sure that partner won't have more than 1 and he's got a singleton).
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#12 User is offline   wank 

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Posted 2011-August-23, 14:52

south had no business Xing. in fact he had no business passing 4S either
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#13 User is offline   cloa513 

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Posted 2011-August-23, 20:51

View Postawm, on 2011-August-20, 12:32, said:



Obviously 5X making was not a very good result. Who's to blame (if anyone) and what should N/S have done differently?

I put this in the non-natural system forum because ofthe non-standard 2 cuebid in case anyone is wondering. The agreement is as described; usually it is 4 and 5-6 (most 5/5 hands don't bid this way) and it's supposed to be "opening strength" whatever that means. N/S carding is udca with obvious shift and frequent suit preference, in case it matters.

North has to bid 5 direct with such a rediculously long set of hearts and clubs fit, then South has reasonable guess to 6.
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#14 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2011-August-24, 01:22

Disagree with the above. The weak hand has no business pulling off pard's penalty doubles. Even more when it has Qxx in the dbled suit... It would look silly if pard comes up with

x
AQxx
Kxx
AQxxx
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#15 User is offline   cloa513 

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Posted 2011-August-24, 02:09

View Postwhereagles, on 2011-August-24, 01:22, said:

Disagree with the above. The weak hand has no business pulling off pard's penalty doubles. Even more when it has Qxx in the dbled suit... It would look silly if pard comes up with

x
AQxx
Kxx
AQxxx

Which above?


If pard comes up with would that guarantee down with what North holds- possibly no heart tricks, no diamond tricks if the ace is offside, perhaps one or two club tricks.
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#16 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2011-August-24, 07:33

Disagree with the suggestion North should pull the dbl.

By the way, I don't like a direct 5... holding Qxx of spades it's not certain that opps are bidding to 4.
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#17 User is offline   benlessard 

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Posted 2011-August-24, 19:37

I think north can deduce that south is very likely 0436 after the 3S bid. 1435/0445 are probably doubles instead of 2S and 1426 is less likely than a 0436 since ive got 3S and 1D IMO.

After the 5S bid south is clearly 0436/0427 and the double should show something like 3 quick tricks in the reds.

I hate 4H by north and by far prefer 5H. The X by south is a joke.
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