BBO Discussion Forums: 2015 NFL Thread - BBO Discussion Forums

 billw55, on 2015-November-23, 14:47, said:

It's actually the opposite, public money was obv gonna be all over carolina and they knew that. It is a myth that they set the line in order to try and get equal action on each side, not sure why that became what people think. They often end up having positions on games because they try to set the best line possible. Line has already moved to car -1, I assume almost all square money is on carolina at that line also, AMERICAS TEAM bias included.

Shouting "Omaha" before the snap is old by now. Shouting "REX RYAN" before the snap, I love it.

 mgoetze, on 2015-November-23, 19:44, said:

Yeah that was great. BB trolls Rex so hard.

If the Patriots lose this game, that line judge is probably never getting assigned to another Patriots game for the rest of his career.

 mgoetze, on 2015-November-23, 21:26, said:

At least he tried to make up for it by ruling that the catch counted (whistle was before the catch), and adding a BS 15 yard penalty on the bills for interfering LOL. It's like he knew he screwed the pats so badly that the least he could do was give them 29 yards instead of a do over. In fairness the fans might have rioted if it was a do over.

Of course that line judge might not have a very long career left in general...

It's a good thing there aren't many D-Lines as good as Buffalo's and as many defensive coaches as good as Rex Ryan around, because the Patriots had a lot of trouble handling that onslaught. Anyway, better hope Amendola and Dobson are OK because else they might have to re-sign Austin Collie or something.

 mgoetze, on 2015-November-23, 23:08, said:

Injured O-line, injured edelman, amendola, dobson at WR, injured lewis at RB. Elite D-line and D coach getting pressure on brady all day. Gronk a non factor. Result: Score 20 points and win.

 PhantomSac, on 2015-November-22, 15:36, said:

The German commentators were also certain that not going for it was the call. So good of them to explain the way the game works to a generally less well-informed audience.

Maybe I should get a TV, then I could watch the German version whenever they are broadcasting the Phil Simms game... hm, naaaah.

 PhantomSac, on 2015-November-23, 18:05, said:

And...back to pk.

 PhantomSac, on 2015-November-23, 18:05, said:

Interesting. So, why would the books want to have such a deep position on Dallas? I mean if "almost all square money is on Carolina", aren't they taking a big risk? What for? Unless they have some really valuable inside info like an injury to Netwon or something, I don't get it.

 PhantomSac, on 2015-November-23, 18:05, said:

Hmm. I assume they move the lines when they would otherwise get too big a position in a game. And their profit margin would be bigger if they wouldn't have to move the line at all.

So, if you move lines at all (without new information coming out), then it seems clear that you should to some extent set your line based on your guess what the public will do.

So I guess they aim for something in between?

 cherdano, on 2015-November-25, 11:24, said:

This would be true if their opening line was always a coin flip no matter which way you bet (in other words, if it was always absolutely correct). And indeed I think they would never move the line unless it was a huge game like the superbowl where they get so much action that they need to hedge even if it sacrifices EV for them.

The amount of money casinos have versus how much is bet on a normal NFL game is so high it would be dumb of them to hedge if they know their line is exactly right, even in a sport like NFL where there are relatively few games.

In reality their opening line might be off, indeed that is why winning sports bettors exist despite vig (though I'd be skeptical of anyone who is not well known telling you they are a winning NFL spread bettor, those are generally the sharpest lines). They are moving the line because if they think sharp money is hammering a line then the line is probably wrong, so they are willing to move it some (but ofc not enough to get middled). Obviously they cannot be totally sure which money is sharp (but they do watch this a lot, which is why sharp bettors use runners to get action down for them, it is really an interesting cat and mouse game... for instance if you bet a lot on a game they will always demand your players card or ID. If they see a group of people always betting the same side of a line, they are probably runners for a sharp, whether they are winning or losing short term, etc) so if almost all money is going to one side of the line they are likely to adjust the line for fear that they are being exploited.

But again, going from pk to -1 is not a huge adjustment, it just means that if carolina wins by 1 then the bet is a push not a win. Everything else is the same (well I guess LOL TIE). And they moved it back which would suggest to me that they decided sharp money was coming in on dallas after the line moved to CAR -1, and in fact it was just square money who was pounding car to begin with.

 billw55, on 2015-November-25, 10:56, said:

They don't "want" to have a deep position on Dallas. Sometimes the line is just much different than the public would think it should be. Like if the line opened at Car -3, I'm sure that most square bettors would still want to bet on carolina, they are 10-0, dallas is 3-7, carolina is coming off a game where cam threw his fifth touchdown of the game in like the first few minutes of the 2nd half! They look great and are improving. The media/espn narrative loves carolina right now blah blah.

So why wouldn't they open the line at Car -3? There are many reasons. For starters, if the correct line is really supposed to be pick em, then that is a massive edge for people who know that. The sharps are going to bet way more money than usual because the line is so bad. True there are far more squares but the people who are professional sports bettors are going to bet way more money if the line is that bad. No problem, you can just move the line right? Well if you move it to pick em you're going to get people arbing and betting both sides. Also, lets say the books were actually shading the opening line based on public opinion, it wouldn't take a genius to just figure out what public opinion is on a certain line and bet the other way and be profitable. So now you're going to get people doing that.

The point is you cannot control getting 50/50 action on a side. You cannot control how people bet, and the worse your line is the more you are exposing yourself to being exploited.

The best way to be "50/50" is to make a line that is as close to a coinflip as possible. True you may have positions on the game if it does not reflect how the public would think (as here), but in the long run as long as you don't have too big of a position where you might go broke you are going to make the most money by doing that. It is far easier to make a line that is 50/50 than to try to shade the line and hope that sharps don't come in and kill you.

Edit: Forgot one more important point. If you decide to make a shaded line, that does not mean other books will. Vegas casinos could collude (since one company makes the line for almost all of them), but offshore books are a different story. Pinnacle in particular. If your lines are significantly different than offshore books, again you will get people who just bet the side that is different from pinnacle or betfair etc. If your line is consistently the one that is bad (it will be if you're shading it), you have a new group of people who are just going to beat you. And FWIW when pinnacle first started I believe this happened.

One last thing: Line is now Dallas -1. Depending where you look so far 63-68 % of the money has been on Carolina, yet from the opening line it has moved from pk to dallas being favored. This strongly suggests sharp money on Dallas. Clearly the books are not trying to get equal action when they are moving away from where the public is betting heavily on. They are trying to set an accurate line.

Some links:

http://www2.kusports...mens_basketball
http://www.gambling9...%99-092012.html
http://www.intensega...sports-betting/

Of course you will find more links on the internet perpetuating the myth of "casinos want equal action on both sides and just collect the vig" so I doubt links will do much for you. I think casinos try to push this myth also, it incentivises more people to bet (no you are not trying to beat very very smart people who are setting a line and also taking odds (vig) on it, you are just trying to beat the public! Our lines have nothing to do with reality we just want equal action on each side so it's easy to be a winning sports bettor!).

 jjbrr, on 2015-September-10, 20:24, said:

♥

Kubiak really wanted to lose that game with "let's call timeout with 5 seconds left so they have to punt" (no they don't) and "let's kick a field goal from the 3 yard line because being down by 4 is so much better than being down by 7" (no it isn't). But the refs really wanted him to win, and they had more crucial decisions to make, so they got their way... bah.

 PhantomSac, on 2015-November-25, 15:07, said:

Didn't look so sharp after all

Un freaken believable wow wow wow

household went crazy with phone calls from Wisc.

Went to sleep at halftime when it was 17-0, thought the Packers looked like toast. Just watched the 2nd half, they were pretty lucky with those fumbles for the first two touchdowns, but after that they suddenly played like a respectable football team again. Notably, I would have expected McCarthy to screw this up, but he managed to make the right calls on 4th down and took his timeouts before the 2 minute warning... maybe he is capable of learning from his mistakes after all. And that Hail Mary throw by Aaron Rodgers, wow, what a thing of beauty.

Nevertheless, I think the Packers have too many problems this season, we won't be seeing them in the Superbowl.